203 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

looks dark out there. gloom is thick. are we bottoming and making a higher low. oversold conditions.
dharma

good chance we are IMO but we still cannot rule out a year end flush below 1179 and well below June lows in miners, I don't think that happens but we need to see some strength soon.

Senor

agree w/you . i am not discounting that possibility. everything has to be on the table. nothing has been proven since the june lows. and before the june lows, the trend was down.
dharma

HUI made a 221.55 low on Nov. 8, 221.38 low yesterday. today's low so far is 220.67 and we are now near 222.10, this "could" have been a final completion wave down completing a deep correction of the June-Oct rally. I am not betting on it yet, if a key bottom is in place prices should start rallying very sharply, we'll see. A sustained rally above 226 starts my thinking a bueno bit more bullish. Also lots if individual miners so far are making higher lows so there is the "possibility" of a bullish divergence forming in that respect, only a "possibility" so far

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 19 November 2013 - 02:44 PM.

[goldfungus]

looks dark out there. gloom is thick. are we bottoming and making a higher low. oversold conditions.
dharma

good chance we are IMO but we still cannot rule out a year end flush below 1179 and well below June lows in miners, I don't think that happens but we need to see some strength soon.

Senor

agree w/you . i am not discounting that possibility. everything has to be on the table. nothing has been proven since the june lows. and before the june lows, the trend was down.
dharma

HUI made a 221.55 low on Nov. 8, 221.38 low yesterday. today's low so far is 220.67 and we are now near 222.10, this "could" have been a final completion wave down completing a deep correction of the June-Oct rally. I am not betting on it yet, if a key bottom is in place prices should start rallying very sharply, we'll see. A sustained rally above 226 starts my thinking a bueno bit more bullish. Also lots if individual miners so far are making higher lows so there is the "possibility" of a bullish divergence forming in that respect, only a "possibility" so far

Senor

Do you have a wave count you'd be willing to share? Why 226? Thanks.

[senorBS]

looks dark out there. gloom is thick. are we bottoming and making a higher low. oversold conditions.
dharma

good chance we are IMO but we still cannot rule out a year end flush below 1179 and well below June lows in miners, I don't think that happens but we need to see some strength soon.

Senor

agree w/you . i am not discounting that possibility. everything has to be on the table. nothing has been proven since the june lows. and before the june lows, the trend was down.
dharma

HUI made a 221.55 low on Nov. 8, 221.38 low yesterday. today's low so far is 220.67 and we are now near 222.10, this "could" have been a final completion wave down completing a deep correction of the June-Oct rally. I am not betting on it yet, if a key bottom is in place prices should start rallying very sharply, we'll see. A sustained rally above 226 starts my thinking a bueno bit more bullish. Also lots if individual miners so far are making higher lows so there is the "possibility" of a bullish divergence forming in that respect, only a "possibility" so far

Senor

Do you have a wave count you'd be willing to share? Why 226? Thanks.

simply a big enough of a move IMO off today's low to suggest at least a key near term trading low was registered, that's it

Senor

[dharma]

there are signs of bottoming here. the fact that gold made a higher low @its cycle lows on friday(15-21 weeks) is the 1st time a cycle low was higher so that is encouraging. and my 9bar wilder rsi is giving daily divergence readings. as senor suggests, we need to move up and out of here. if 1434 can be taken out that will also be encouraging as gold will have made a higher high. right now its all speculation. if it doesnt rally from here , then i look for the 1179 june lows to be challenged. right here though it does look like a bottom, again w/sentiment in the gutter. and even kitcos broadcasts are all bearish commentators. and they sell pms as their biz. on fridays lows, gold held above 1251 while silver did not hold above those lows taking out its lows of 2049 so we do have a divergence. we need to rally out of here. and get above 1309 for gold dharma

Edited by dharma, 19 November 2013 - 03:45 PM.

[goldfungus]

there are signs of bottoming here. the fact that gold made a higher low @its cycle lows on friday(15-21 weeks) is the 1st time a cycle low was higher so that is encouraging. and my 9bar wilder rsi is giving daily divergence readings. as senor suggests, we need to move up and out of here. if 1434 can be taken out that will also be encouraging as gold will have made a higher high. right now its all speculation. if it doesnt rally from here , then i look for the 1179 june lows to be challenged. right here though it does look like a bottom, again w/sentiment in the gutter. and even kitcos broadcasts are all bearish commentators. and they sell pms as their biz.
on fridays lows, gold held above 1251 while silver did not hold above those lows taking out its lows of 2049 so we do have a divergence. we need to rally out of here. and get above 1300 for gold
dharma

Sentiment is perfect for a low but tax loss selling will plague us into year end. I'd like to see 25.90 recaptured on the GDX to get bulled up.

[dharma]

the west are not significant gold buyers. its the east where they buy it and hold it. the seasonal chart points to a low now. however taking the indian buyer out of the equation, renders the seasonal chart a drawing. ben said last night by mid next year(and he will not be in office) he hopes to take qe to 0. i do not see that happening. i think @some point qe gets increased. we will see what yellin has up her sleeves. golds last low was 1251 taking that out will put the downtrend in focus. i assume that is what the bears are shooting for. silver has taken out its corresponding low to golds 1251. take out 1251 and lows come into focus. this market is on shaky ground. dharma

[senorBS]

the west are not significant gold buyers. its the east where they buy it and hold it. the seasonal chart points to a low now. however taking the indian buyer out of the equation, renders the seasonal chart a drawing. ben said last night by mid next year(and he will not be in office) he hopes to take qe to 0. i do not see that happening. i think @some point qe gets increased. we will see what yellin has up her sleeves. golds last low was 1251 taking that out will put the downtrend in focus. i assume that is what the bears are shooting for. silver has taken out its corresponding low to golds 1251. take out 1251 and lows come into focus. this market is on shaky ground.
dharma

the grande Q is whether silver is completing wave 5 of C down (from Oct 3rd 23.09 high) of a big abc from the 25.16 high, and if gold may have had a wave 5 of C failure to take out 1251 this morning, muy interesting and extremely importante action

Senor

[dharma]

the west are not significant gold buyers. its the east where they buy it and hold it. the seasonal chart points to a low now. however taking the indian buyer out of the equation, renders the seasonal chart a drawing. ben said last night by mid next year(and he will not be in office) he hopes to take qe to 0. i do not see that happening. i think @some point qe gets increased. we will see what yellin has up her sleeves. golds last low was 1251 taking that out will put the downtrend in focus. i assume that is what the bears are shooting for. silver has taken out its corresponding low to golds 1251. take out 1251 and lows come into focus. this market is on shaky ground.
dharma

the grande Q is whether silver is completing wave 5 of C down (from Oct 3rd 23.09 high) of a big abc from the 25.16 high, and if gold may have had a wave 5 of C failure to take out 1251 this morning, muy interesting and extremely importante action

Senor

agree, the bears are gunning for that 1251. keeping both sides in focus. seems the ground is shaky in the whole financial world
dharma
gotta love rick , he is a lone voice on cnbc
http://theconservati...li-vindication/

[dharma]

on the last few declines open interest expanded=new shorts. i am curious to see if that is the case again today. not as much follow through as i thought there would be breaking 1251 . so far miners holding fairly well dharma

[andiron]

Gold headed for 1000-1100 area... few weeks... took some losses here..