19 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

Hadik has changed his mind multiple times over the past few weeks, the guy writes all kinds of stuff then he is never wrong...

This is what I sent Dougie in answer to his private message to me...


"This places the focus on October 21, the earliest that the daily trends could turn up." Eric Hadik Oct 18.

He also says it would take a daily close above 1328 to reverse the downtrend, today is above that.

"Gold and silver could see a sharp drop before or after late October - taking them to their ultimate downside destination" - Eric Hadik for period Oct 21-25.

"Before or After late October"...well that covers all the bases doesn't it, the guy is full of hot air.



My work shows GDX and NUGT will go up into late Dec to Jan 2014.

Russ,
I'm in agreement with you there too. First I don't follow Hadik all the time but he does adjust like others do and he has been wrong quite a few times since I have observed him now and then but I do know he's been right too..LOL!...so I have no idea what his percentage is being right...that said..
From a pnf viewpoint...as I mentioned before gold has a positive trend now and that is the first time this year since it turned negative Dec 2012 along with gdx turning negative earlier in Dec. GDX hasn't yet..and needs 33 to do that..if that just gets touched ...then a lot more upside from there.

I typically use gdx for the guide over nugt but nugt at this time on pnf got a buy signal Friday..and it's relative strength (RS) change to X...so there is momentum there that should last at least a month but I have seen this for nugt flip back to O sooner than that...that's why I prefer using gdx more as a guide...48.50 would be a pnf sell but that could also be a fake out too seeing it's really all about where gold is going which I think we got a lot more upside there...as I stated on the pnf thread.
I believe the last few years gold seems to have some sort of top in Dec..

Now why would gold go higher into next year?..It's all about the currency wars...the euro is going to be presenting a problem as it is getting closer to that 1.40.. (the euro got a positive trend in July and the $ a negative in Sept)....and it's near it's top range ..only if it touches 1.31 and that will be rising will it get a negative trend.....the $ needs 83.50 for a positive trend......so maybe Europe starts lowering rates...and there we go again with the currency wars continuing....but how high will be the issue for gold imo....can gold and the markets go up together...yes and I think we might see that...

what needs to happen imo is the three musketeers to go up together...gold/gdx/silver...can't have one without the other if this is a real bottom in gold imo..and miners have the best risk/reward as they have really been beaten down

Just thoughts..no predictions...

TM

If you wait until GDX hits 33 you are leaving a lot of money on the table and it seems like the run will be almost over by then, but I thought you said you are holding some nugt now? nugt is just gdx with leverage. About your last statement, I don't see how you can trade if you are not making predictions???

It looks like there will be some weakness going into end of Oct to early Nov for the metals btw.

Russ:

NUGT is $GDM with leverage!

stubaby

[Russ]

Russ:

NUGT is $GDM with leverage!

stubaby cool.gif

Thanks for the correction Stu.

[Russ]

Why did NUGT go lower than its June low but $GDM and GDX did not?

[stubaby]

Why did NUGT go lower than its June low but $GDM and GDX did not?

Russ:

The 3Xleveraged ETF's experience "slippage" when there is a trend-less period of time or up and down moves that end up in the same place.

stubaby

[dharma]

any one who trades, no matter how brilliant makes mistakes. in the end its about money management. and i am a very strong believer in doing ones own work. if you have the good fortune to have enough to invest, then one needs to learn from their mistakes. the dollar could run into trouble yellen is an unknown entity. also, she is a woman, which in this insane world may cause her some problems. dharma

[Russ]

any one who trades, no matter how brilliant makes mistakes. in the end its about money management. and i am a very strong believer in doing ones own work. if you have the good fortune to have enough to invest, then one needs to learn from their mistakes.
the dollar could run into trouble yellen is an unknown entity. also, she is a woman, which in this insane world may cause her some problems.
dharma

The dollar index has projections for a low in January

[tria]

Looking much higher in Gold this week and the upper 1300's should be tested fairly soon IMHO. -tria

[tradermama]

Hadik has changed his mind multiple times over the past few weeks, the guy writes all kinds of stuff then he is never wrong...

This is what I sent Dougie in answer to his private message to me...


"This places the focus on October 21, the earliest that the daily trends could turn up." Eric Hadik Oct 18.

He also says it would take a daily close above 1328 to reverse the downtrend, today is above that.

"Gold and silver could see a sharp drop before or after late October - taking them to their ultimate downside destination" - Eric Hadik for period Oct 21-25.

"Before or After late October"...well that covers all the bases doesn't it, the guy is full of hot air.



My work shows GDX and NUGT will go up into late Dec to Jan 2014.

Russ,
I'm in agreement with you there too. First I don't follow Hadik all the time but he does adjust like others do and he has been wrong quite a few times since I have observed him now and then but I do know he's been right too..LOL!...so I have no idea what his percentage is being right...that said..
From a pnf viewpoint...as I mentioned before gold has a positive trend now and that is the first time this year since it turned negative Dec 2012 along with gdx turning negative earlier in Dec. GDX hasn't yet..and needs 33 to do that..if that just gets touched ...then a lot more upside from there.

I typically use gdx for the guide over nugt but nugt at this time on pnf got a buy signal Friday..and it's relative strength (RS) change to X...so there is momentum there that should last at least a month but I have seen this for nugt flip back to O sooner than that...that's why I prefer using gdx more as a guide...48.50 would be a pnf sell but that could also be a fake out too seeing it's really all about where gold is going which I think we got a lot more upside there...as I stated on the pnf thread.
I believe the last few years gold seems to have some sort of top in Dec..

Now why would gold go higher into next year?..It's all about the currency wars...the euro is going to be presenting a problem as it is getting closer to that 1.40.. (the euro got a positive trend in July and the $ a negative in Sept)....and it's near it's top range ..only if it touches 1.31 and that will be rising will it get a negative trend.....the $ needs 83.50 for a positive trend......so maybe Europe starts lowering rates...and there we go again with the currency wars continuing....but how high will be the issue for gold imo....can gold and the markets go up together...yes and I think we might see that...

what needs to happen imo is the three musketeers to go up together...gold/gdx/silver...can't have one without the other if this is a real bottom in gold imo..and miners have the best risk/reward as they have really been beaten down

Just thoughts..no predictions...

TM

If you wait until GDX hits 33 you are leaving a lot of money on the table and it seems like the run will be almost over by then, but I thought you said you are holding some nugt now? nugt is just gdx with leverage. About your last statement, I don't see how you can trade if you are not making predictions???

It looks like there will be some weakness going into end of Oct to early Nov for the metals btw.

Russ,
I didn't say I'm waiting till gdx hits 33. My point is that is a confirmation of trend. And Yes I said I have a small position in nugt. I'm not into trading as much as I'm into holding either long term or swing positions. This doesn't mean I hold it till 33 too. That depends on TA for me and if the RS changes. But I use gdx as the guide..not nugt. The positive trend changes determines how much cash I want to put in.

If you recall on the pnf thread on gold I said what would it take to negate that trend...which I believe I said 1260...off the top of my head. So if that happened the story changes on risk.

I've mentioned that I believe all three..silver/gold/and gdx needs to get in line before this is something of real duration. Don't assume I'm trading. At this time I could be accumulating. And I do use stops too. I mentioned to you I've been long equities through the year..mainly staying away from metals/miners except a couple of times which right now is a small position in nugt. And this was all due to pnf trends. I have long term and short term positions in equities and swinging with nugt unless I see improvement in gdx and gold moving.

I'm first in managing risk vs worrying about leaving money on the table. If I get the meat of something and I can sleep at night I'm comfortable. This is what pnf does for a person..again repeating myself ..it is all about managing risk..then profits for me. I don't care if I get a bottom or top. And I speculate but don't predict...there is a difference...I will change if the conditions change for me.

Please don't start challenging me. I'm not hear to keep repeating my methods..take it or leave it. I try and keep it simple and again I'm not predicting...I started posting again but I'm considering on just waiting till something significant changes to post which I did on gold. If you have a question, please ask it but not assume things from me. I wont be here for the rest of the week so I wont be following TT which most times I haven't really been doing it...I just thought I'd put my two cents in with agreement with you and this is what I get? IF you want to email me, feel free.

You don't see me constantly challenging your methods. I ask the questions and if I don't agree I don't even say anything. I just move on. I'm not arrogant to think I have all the answers but I am definitely comfortable in my methods.

TM

[Russ]

Sorry TM, I did not mean to be challenging your methods, I was just confused about your statements. I think you are a good analyst.

[tradermama]

Sorry TM, I did not mean to be challenging your methods, I was just confused about your statements. I think you are a good analyst.

Not a problem Russ. All I ask if you are confused just ask it in a question form. I know sometimes I can write something down that might need more clarifying.

Here is an example of something I did with Appl. Maybe this might explain what I mean. Last year in Nov Appl got a negative trend so that was in the back of my head and I saw analyst after analyst calling a bottom after it dropped the first 200 pts but pnf said...RS was a sell and O and a sell on the signal besides the negative trend. TA didn't look that great either as I was watching the monthly.

In July after seeing how much negativity was built into appl and the monthly was very oversold in addition the money flow was extreme under the 20...just before earnings I started a position at 423 yet I knew the downside was I believe around 382 the last low..again off the top of my head....and the pe was very low.....that's why a small position I started...Appl in August got a positive trend
change when it hit 490. So I waited for a pullback and added the rest of my position which now my average is around 454. The negative trend would come in around 456.

I started seeing how much negativity in articles too was being written on apple and they still are. But I'm going by RS and trend..the RS changed to a buy and X also after that. I saw the pnf sell come in Oct..but I was going to hold onto it because I felt my risk was still on the low end based on where I got in and a bullish patterns..like a double bottom right now pointing to at least 563...plus many times after a new uptrend established the first sell is a fake out. Now I even see Dorsey adding it into it's PDP which is their etf for the leaders...it helps to get that confirmation of confidence. And of course we're seeing higher targets as many are realizing the pe is still low. People get spooked because of the price but it's relative to the pe imo.

I plan on holding appl for a while unless the RS changes and/or trend then I would take profits.

IF you don't understand what I'm saying, feel free to ask but this is what I meant about confirmation of trend and adding more when I get that.

I don't want to come off like I am anyone better than the others here. I appreciate the posts and opinions of the ones I read. I always figure I can learn something new and I adjust. But I don't call people out or will I say something is for certain because I believe you have to be flexible too. Just my thoughts

TM