262 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Moreover you were just calling for XAU 74 which suggests that the pain has only begun to be sheer hyperbole

That's just short term, the 10/08 low was around 64, but there will be trading opportunities as I have described. But that's all they are is TRADES.

Clear enough?

[Russ]

Good points, so far it is an anemic bounce and obviously Gold is still in very bearish and dangerous territory, but as Mike Paulenoff says the structures look like a powder-keg waiting for a spark to send it up. Its a tough call, you are in Armstrong's camp looking for more crashing.

Look at the monthly Gold chart, it is showing volume divergences, what the actual commodity is doing trumps the stocks...

Volume divergences are great, as you know I use them all the time in my work.

Without a sign of strength off the lows, they are meaningless.

A loaded gun with no trigger.


If you looked at the daily contract, you can see a daily candle at the low - range 1186 - 1226.

The gold contract is pushing back towards 1226 now on about 1/3 the volume of that candle.

It just so happens however, that even if it tests the 1226 now on light volume, a price rejection is unlikely.

I know that from years of studying the gold contract.

Even if it can break 1226, it runs into trouble again at 1251.


There's a lot of selling resistance overhead in these miners and gold.

It's prudent to be a skeptic, and make gold PROVE that it has made a reversal.

So far, no way.

[SemiBizz]

(Partial Comment from Monday's XAU Forecast 12/30)

The goldbugs are all excited about the big spike in the miners at the close on Friday... So far we see this as a bear spike because even with that last minute push - all we ended up with was an inside day on a little stronger volume. While the sentiment is there to push this higher, there is huge selling pressure in these miners. If we look at the GDX miner ETF, we see 9 months of HUGE VOLUME SELLING as it crashed from 38 down to 20, and while the little bounce on Friday pushed it to close at 21.25 on the high of the day, the readout is the same, inside on stronger volume. Inside on stronger volume closing at the high tells us there is volume resistance in the pipeline, when stronger volume does not result in breaking previous highs made on lighter volume.

[SemiBizz]

May 26, 2013 Post

Actually, I'm thinking this GLD chart is starting to look like early April ahead of the Slam and we will see another big SEPARATION DECLINE with another BIG GAP DOWN. When gold failed to break the "old low" of 1525 and couldn't test it, it set up another big leg down targeting 1250. My target is a little lower than that, but we'll see

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Of course we fell well below 1250 as expected... There is similarity here with this last low, and we could see a bounce with first major resistance to 120 on GLD. The outlook is unchanged though THESE ARE TRADES.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[dougie]

Moreover you were just calling for XAU 74 which suggests that the pain has only begun to be sheer hyperbole

That's just short term, the 10/08 low was around 64, but there will be trading opportunities as I have described. But that's all they are is TRADES.

Clear enough?

Thanks!

[senorBS]

gold at 1186, new decline low and not far from the June print low at 1179, would like to see a new low with the miners not confirming - a bullish divergence that would be Senor

[senorBS]

LOL, ya gotta luv the crapola at end of year and muy thin market conditions, take gold all the way down to 1182, successfully test the 1179 low and now rally it back to 1211!!! Bueno miner action as well BSing away Senor

[SemiBizz]

That wasn't any kind of test. They are leaving it open... After all they wouldn't want to discourage the goldbugs from paying them higher prices.

[senorBS]

[quote name='SemiBizz' date='Dec 31 2013, 11:24 AM' post='680484']
That wasn't any kind of test.

They are leaving it open...

After all they wouldn't want to discourage the goldbugs from paying them higher prices.
[/quote

we will see won't we

Senor

[SemiBizz]

Here's all you really need to know about these tests.

When they fail to test the low on stronger volume, that's a sign of strength.

When they fail to test on lighter volume and then rocket back up - that is usually a distribution signal. (which is what happened today)

When they test the low on lighter volume and then spring up, that is a sign of strength.

Basically, the monsters that control these markets with large positions are paranoid.

If they are really in the business of going long, they want to see those lows tested

and prove the point - NO MORE SELLERS.