17 replies to this topic

[blustar]

Got any alternate models?

OEX and Dow Indu have not. The SPX making new high here is causing the case for a double top reversal here. Look at my charts and you will see 2 Expanding Bearish Flats each making all time highs, the first was Wave -Y in late Dec and now wave ( of -Z- today. I've seen these before and they always end badly.

Study what I have written there and perhaps you will understand why I'm so bearish ST. A 6.5% plunge is nigh and it will happen by Jan 21.

Last Chart Down Study in Detail

[SemiBizz]

Nope, don't need to study... All I have to know is whether or not this 1848 Fib is going to pass or fail It took 3 X to bust that 1.618 down at 1812. This is #2 for this one. So you can talk %'s decline, dates and all that, but until this pup breaks that 1810 12/20 support, it's all up. I work this thing from pivot to pivot. Make it prove itself, by the numbers. So beyond 1810, yes I have downside targets. These things rarely go straight down. We have 1847 on the SPX. If there's anything to a decline here we'll see 1837 in the next couple of hours.

[blustar]

Nope, don't need to study...

All I have to know is whether or not this 1848 Fib is going to pass or fail

It took 3 X to bust that 1.618 down at 1812.

This is #2 for this one.

So you can talk %'s decline, dates and all that, but until this pup breaks that 1810 12/20 support, it's all up.

I work this thing from pivot to pivot.

Make it prove itself, by the numbers.

So beyond 1810, yes I have downside targets.

These things rarely go straight down.

We have 1847 on the SPX.

If there's anything to a decline here we'll see 1837 in the next couple of hours.

Suit yourself.

[SemiBizz]

I like that 1/21 vicinity timeframe for a turn you are looking at as well, I have been looking at it. I have to consider a possibility they could just rally right into that timeframe. But I"m also looking at this 1848, and we could fail there again. Then I set up for 1810. We failed on the first try down there on Monday, we could hit it again.

Edited by SemiBizz, 15 January 2014 - 11:51 AM.

[blustar]

I'm even going out further on a limb and saying we hit the Nov 7th low at or around 1746.20 by OPEX Jan 17.

[SemiBizz]

So Blustar, back to the big drop.

Let's look at the first time the Nasdaq approached 4200 at a high of 4192.19 1/3/00

Notice the boyz cleverly gapped it over that number today at 4196.

This is what you are looking for right here... 10% in 4 trading days.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[SemiBizz]

And we have confluence at 4192 from the last peak off the 2000 Nasdaq on 09/01/00... the low there was... 4192.

This is what I see now as the major support, we have to at least lose this and 1848-1850 SPX before we can entertain any bearish ideas.


http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[SemiBizz]

For all you Gann Fans out there, a perfect 9. Squaring price and time 9 months apart.