40 replies to this topic

[CLK]

At this point, it's not possible for the Dow to drop below 15,500 on a monthly closing basis, intra-month maybe but that would be an all in buy. There is no volume here, thus, there will be no bear move.

[TechMan]

Anyway, another 80-100 SPX points lower from here, even within a week, would need help of a detonation of a nuclear bomb to produce such an result at this time.

Fib

Wow!

Now you have to nuke 'em just to get a 3%-5% pullback in a week?

That's my 3rd "Wow" this week, but I've no idea things have really changed. It used to take just some selling to get a pullback like that.

[fib_1618]

Now you have to nuke 'em just to get a 3%-5% pullback in a week?

At this stage, you're right, it would take a nuclear bomb AND a counter strike to do so.

There...I've given you your fourth "wow" for the week!!

Fib

[TechMan]

Now you have to nuke 'em just to get a 3%-5% pullback in a week?

At this stage, you're right, it would take a nuclear bomb AND a counter strike to do so.

There...I've given you your fourth "wow" for the week!!

Fib

AND a counter strike?!

WOW!!!

[fib_1618]

Now you have to nuke 'em just to get a 3%-5% pullback in a week?

At this stage, you're right, it would take a nuclear bomb AND a counter strike to do so.

There...I've given you your fourth "wow" for the week!!

Fib

AND a counter strike?!

WOW!!!

I'm quite disappointed in that you didn't increase the font size and added color to this last "wow".

After all, it's as "out there" as anything else you've read this week, wouldn't you say?

Fib

[TechMan]

Now you have to nuke 'em just to get a 3%-5% pullback in a week?

At this stage, you're right, it would take a nuclear bomb AND a counter strike to do so.

There...I've given you your fourth "wow" for the week!!

Fib

AND a counter strike?!

WOW!!!

I'm quite disappointed in that you didn't increase the font size and added color to this last "wow".

After all, it's as "out there" as anything else you've read this week, wouldn't you say?

Fib

:=)

[blustar]

Well for one thing, you have increasing volume on a down day, today. Other than that, with that chart, I would say it is hard to tell. But looks also at the MACD and RSI divergences. The charts at my site explain it all. Also, you say the lack of movement is telling. Yes, the Bollinger Bands are squeezing on the daily, so the inevitable is a break out one way or the other. Now with volume, the tell is down isn't it? Or?

We measure from high to high and low to low. You have a neutral read here because we measure against the benchmarks here... on the one hand with stronger volume we broke the 1/14 low, but with stronger volume we failed to break the 1/13 low...

There are two bearish objective targets. We just look for the strongest volume candle, and we see 1810, that is the primary target. We have made a couple of attempts to break it down and failed to test that last day of volume low. The secondary target if that one is broken is at about 1768. We failed on the previous attempts on lighter volume. This market does not need volume to push higher... but it DOES NEED VOLUME to go lower. There are no FREE PASSES here for the bears, that 1810 has to break with wide price spread and volume and close substantially under it, then we can look at the 2nd target. Which may not be as hard to test as this stubborn "Fib-assisted" Volume Support Low....

So targets are fine, and I can literally draw an extensive support map to the downside when and if we finally turn south for more than a pullback, and all major declines start with sharp pullbacks. The benchmark is 30% in 18 trading days. Some people have short memories and consider that impossible, but we lived through it in 2000 and 2008. The bottom line though, once you understand the true definition of support based on volume, you will find targeting easier, and know right away if the volume and price momentum has the juice to get you to those long targets... for me this business is one step at a time. For me, I have to see 1810 broken and then we can calculate the next target...

Thx, Semi. Very insightful

[SemiBizz]

1810 has been so tough, we might see a real dive under it... Or it could bounce right back up to 1824

[Dex]

Well, with all these divergent opinions -- I think it is safe to say - "THE TOP IS IN."

[fib_1618]

Well, with all these divergent opinions -- I think it is safe to say - "THE TOP IS IN."

Hardly...trading ranges are indecision patterns for a reason.

Fib