It changes my plans but will continue to develop, this is where the action is,
on this scale. The weekly is just weak but I see this potential for a July bounce there too.
I've seen this movie before, I've seen the fed work it up or support it through this configuration on the weekly basis.
This is an analog of what happened in weekly through 2012. I think this is what Arb refers to cascading.
It does help me formulate a plan with the Bradley and some other inputs.
That dip in 2 months with 78 month, may be the late March to Apr pivot as seen in Bradley,
up to July, down to Nov is looking reasonable.
It looks like a minor weak countertrend peak of July but I have seen these morph in fed orgies.
It looks like the annual trade is short in July to Nov. I am still playing long for now but more carefully
from higher cash levels.
The in between stuff like last week bearishness and crash calls can get me chewed up, I only want the
big trade, one per year, which looks like short July to Nov.
Shorter term I would be inclined to raise more cash and more hedged with blu's early Mar high until end of March
or early Apr. It will probably not be productive but the cash will be handy to work with in lows.
For now I want to buy something Feb 25, sell to cash heavier early Mar, short something early Mar in vulnerable etf selection,
long bigger for Apr to July.
Liquidate and short in July.
I wont be trading that much, these are not wholesale moves, but that will be the rotational plan.
The wholesale move and annual trade should be cash and short in July to Nov.
I am looking right now at beginning to cost average into commodity etfs, gasoline and livestock.
I think the future is inflation.
I wouldn't try to apply it past the immediate July to Nov period, it will change by then,
one thing for example they have done weekly basis,
see that 36 month turn up from Nov'14 then Mar'15, the fed can pour that on and neutralize the
whole bigger low, I've seen it. One step at a time to the July-Nov period.
