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[nimblebear]

No I don't have no TA tools,charts to show or even some crystal ball. Its just a look at the fundamentals and interpretation of many factors, not euphoria, as many might view it. 1) US M2 velocity of money is turning. Its going to go up, but this isn't necessarily a good thing. We need to consider all of the massive debts that are accumulated since years ago, and the doubling since 2008. Now banks will finally resort to their last chance for what they think is survival - more lending to the people who shouldn't be borrowing. 2) Secular bottom in interest rates. This isn't about QE anymore, or even taper. Currencies are plunging all over, and interest rates will be driven up by those currency issuers who are experiencing dramatic outflows. Russia just did this. Many more will have to follow. Of course their stocks tanked along with it. 3) Secular top in margin debt. This has gotten higher at each of the prior bear market rally tops. Its enough higher this time, to be no different than the prior ones. The sentiment here speaks for itself. 4) Rush back to the U.S. - not only have capital flows been coming back into US stocks for some time, but many multi-nationals have been re-locating back here to the US out of fear. They're using things like the shale play, or what have you, or energy costs as a rationalization (among many others) for their excuse to come back. Whether its Dow or Dupont relocating their respective chem and plastic plants back here from places like China or Germany, this is not just about cheap cost or long term supply of NG. This is all an over-reaction to the world wide economic depressive factors occurring. CEO's are running scared - and this is reactionary. 5) Bubbles, Bubbles, and more bubbles. We've scene them rise and expand, and then pop in numerous sectors, and markets around the world. The bubbles have gotten bigger, and been instigated in ever larger markets. The bond bubble being one of the largest, and surely its gonna pop, and deflate rather rapidly. Disruptively rapid too. Auto and home bubbles have inflated, popped, and now are once again being reflated. On all the back of ever increasing debt, and untethered credit. Those are minor though. Check out auto inventories if you don't believe me. Chrysler just had a 50% curtailment at one of its assembly plants. Maybe blame weather or price/availability of fuel. But its all the same. Chevy's dealers are being stuffed once again. Incentives are rapidly growing, and all of this with underlying cheap rates. The consumer has massive debt, and 11 year old cars. The average is going to get a lot worse, before it gets better. 6) Wal-mart and Apple -bringing back 'made in the US.' thats a top call if I ever saw one, and its too late, and not for the right reasons, and not going to be the wage benefit its thought to be. 7) Us Military personnel to be at the lowest levels since pre-WWII. In a word, the US has outlived its capacity to borrow anymore money, and its now drastically affecting even the once sacrosanct military budget which is getting hammered from all sides. The military complex is no longer not even affordable (never has been), but its long demise will correspond with a world wide depression. Worldwide trade will suffer bc of it, since shipping lanes will no longer be protected as they once were. You think China or Russia will step in with the same 'benevolence' as the US has done for years ? Think Drones are the replacement ??? They have no choice but to come up with drones and other technology like this. Its under the mis-conception of being able to do more with less. Drones do not add up to military might, no matter how fearsome they might be considered to some weak tit al quaeda in afghanistan. 8) Derivatives - The proliferation of these faux financial 'protective' charades will actually accelerate the US and world economy demise. In spades, but its best to go read up on Nasem Talib's excellent diagnosis. As always, the prescient are de-rided and mocked. He'll be back to say I told you so. 9) Climate change and weather - this hot button topic, has only become a hot button topic, because its not about the actual man made emission effects the planet is arguing over. Its really about the inevitable inability to keep feeding and housing and attempting to keep out of poverty, the planet's population of 7 billion, growing beyond 9.6 billion by 2050. At the current and growing rate of consumption of resources on a per-capital basis, accelerated by the use of man-made electronic devices like cell phones, more auto's, more homes, bigger homes, etc., and unwittingly fostered by the construct of the 'internet of things', we're actually accelerating the demise of more of the world's population, not improving it. Its a pyramid, or ponzi scheme. To get fancier and fancier technology requires MORE of energy, more of everything, rather than less. The ruse is that we are getting 'more efficient.' Its actually the opposite, in that we are using potentially more efficient devices, but so many more of them, that world energy consumption per capita is increasing without bounds. We're substituting man made devices for human labor, and human labor that is actually more efficient than the most efficient of man made technology. Leverage or that talked about is a misnomer. Its a ruse. Its a mass deception by those like a Musk, seeking massive profits for the few, at the expense of many. In a word, 'all boats are not rising.' 10) So what happens when all of the above collides, and intertwines, is a complete global reset. Not just of currencies or political structures. Or country's GDP's. But of man kind's standards of living. What's happening in Ukraine or what happened in Greece or Cyprus or Argentina or Zimbabwe is just a continuation of a sequence of resets, where the restless populations are recognizing they are simply not getting 'their fair share' of what they were either falsely promised they'd get, or was being taken away by the powers who rose with largely ill founded intent. We remain an optimistic country. A country united previously by hope, and faith that we could overcome all. Largely we've overcome a lot in the past 200 hundred years. Optimism, and hope, or whatever you want to call it, also promotes an atmosphere of over-confidence and delusion that things will always forever somehow 'get better.' Sure it can be a driving and motivating force in a population that has been deluded by an over-arching idealogy (democracy as an example), however, when many others have attempted this same 'democracy' and fail in spades, it runs the risk of beginning to this-illusion ever greater population bodies than the smaller collective bodies like the US. Optimism can be mis-placed, as evidenced by stock markets, and civilizations, and currencies that have come and gone over the centuries. Right now we remain in this optimism bubble that 'technology' can solve all. Its a rather unfortunate and myopic perspective. To wit, just look at the cost of healthcare, that continues to rise even more with something like ACA. Its no doubt technology driven, and profit driven, but the US has one of the worst if not thee worse population of over-weights and diabetes on the planet. Ain't technology just grand ? BUT we have the best healthcare technology in the world !!! At what cost and to who's benefit is all of this technology ? I rest my case, that we are nearing a secular top. The benefits of the 'profits' (and even the goodness) are coming at the expense of ever larger percentage of the world's populations, and being concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. And then that's leveraged by derivatives way beyond the total costs or benefits, sucking like a black hole from generational futures we cannot even imagine the length of. The planet is way over-drawn on many future accounts. Financial, emotional, psychological, resource, and labor. A reset is inevitable.