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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 07 July 2014 - 08:10 PM

Took my ETFs off the table on yesterday's NYMO/NAMO dip but with today's pop, we have yet another low above a low, and the NYSI is still rising, so it's back in the game for next week. This bull hardly gives time to catch one's breath before breadth marches the market higher.

Should be noted that TQQQ is now up seven days in a row (five for the NDX). There has to be another pause in here sometime, probably not much of one (again).

Good luck and good trading.


That's my last post on the market action last week.

So the "pause in here sometime" started today. Not surprising. Bought back in on the open this morning and sold it on an intraday signal one hour later. Got out basically flat thanks to AAPL holding up the Nasdaq, and thus TQQQ, long enough to launch the life raft.

So what now?

The NYMO is down with a little high below a high. The NYSI, acting like a bucking NYMO, is falling again. Can't quite remember a period of whipsaws on the NYSI going on this long.

Right now, if I had to guess, I think we're going down for a bit but hard to take that bet since this bull seems to surprise everyone with its rips back to the upside. My nifty-fifty stock list has 44 on sells, usually the prelude to another bounce, and 11 oversold. They have been rolling over from a top of 41 on buys for the past three days. Eleven are oversold -- would like to see more oversold before the next bounce begins.

If I totally had my way -- TOTALLY! -- this market would sell off for another three days at least and scare every bull to death and let the bears dance in the streets before the stampede kills them again, but markets, as we all know, seldom let anyone TOTALLY have his or her way.

So for now, I am in cash. May not be for long. :)

Good luck and good trading.

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#2 diogenes227

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Posted 08 July 2014 - 03:58 PM

Now, wasn't that a decent little blood bath? The top ten stocks in my nifty-fifty stock list lost a lot, generally between five and nine percent each. I like that...right after I've sold them all. :P

So what now?

The bears obviously have the ball. They have had a serious case of the fumbles this past year but maybe...maybe this time they can run it for a while. A couple first downs would not be a bad thing, if only to improve the stat sheet, and stave off the current market's relentless humiliations.

I just sorted my stock list, adding a few high flyers like EMES, AERI, and boosting the stronger performers like MU and PCRX (GWPH moved up from number six to number one, wonder what it's smoking ;) ). And despite the sort, the new list has 49 on sells, 18 oversold. Getting close to bounce time, if only a dead cat.

But what I want right now as I said above is one more day down, preferably two. That would likely get the NYMO thoroughly oversold and be a setup for the beginning of a complex bottom, and it would likely get my stock list likewise oversold, making the list a bargain, and be a lively cat for the next run up.

So...please, please, please, at least one more day like today.

Good luck and good trading.

P.S. CNN's "Fear and Greed" index dropped out of the greed zone today, probably indicating more chop with a downward bias but we'll see. Note the high below the high divergence on the index for the past few days? Appears, with yesterday's and today's action, that is a useful indicator.

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"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."