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[arbman]

The system output has little changed, but expects some more volatility into next week and it is still looking for the same August high with a price target around SPX 2050sh. I was mentioning about a low on July 25th, it appears the cycle will work out for a broad push from there. However, any rally higher should have more euphoric nature. I think the cash built-up from months of consolidation is pretty much spent now and the breadth somewhat confirms the weakness, especially RUT. The volatility is likely to remain higher. Seasonally, a high in August seems more likely than right here, we will see. The model is tracking for a low in fall. A corrective low can gradually come after a high in August or the market may trade sideways for several weeks while topping and then drop like a rock in late September. It largely depends on how euphoric the pile up comes in buying this sell off. The support zone on SPX is still around 1940-1950 for now... Best of luck.

Edited by arbman, 18 July 2014 - 12:06 PM.

[arbman]

This is what I am seeing, I think the decline around the middle of August (for a low around 8-15th) will significantly alter the outlook of this projection. The projected slope and correlation amounts are now lower...

Edited by arbman, 18 July 2014 - 12:25 PM.