20 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

Don't like the recent action, could still be bullish but I exited all long positions, can always buy back if I think it looks good. as always DYODD and maybe this time I will be a bueno contrary indicator BSing away Senor

[goldfungus]

Don't like the recent action, could still be bullish but I exited all long positions, can always buy back if I think it looks good. as always DYODD and maybe this time I will be a bueno contrary indicator

BSing away

Senor

Sorry to see you go. But your discipline is usually good.

[senorBS]

Don't like the recent action, could still be bullish but I exited all long positions, can always buy back if I think it looks good. as always DYODD and maybe this time I will be a bueno contrary indicator

BSing away

Senor

Sorry to see you go. But your discipline is usually good.

it could still go into a 3rd up from here and I'll buy quickly and at a higher price if I need to if I like what I see, just would rather be out for now, hopefully I put in the bottom for you guys still bullish!

Senor

[goldfungus]

Don't like the recent action, could still be bullish but I exited all long positions, can always buy back if I think it looks good. as always DYODD and maybe this time I will be a bueno contrary indicator

BSing away

Senor

Sorry to see you go. But your discipline is usually good.

it could still go into a 3rd up from here and I'll buy quickly and at a higher price if I need to if I like what I see, just would rather be out for now, hopefully I put in the bottom for you guys still bullish!

Senor

Totally understand. I might have sold too but then I saw Dougie's 'Charlie Brown' animation and doubled down! LOL

[senorBS]

So far with the inability to accelerate sharply higher I have to "consider" that the Aug 12-14 GDX (and others) highs were a 3-step B wave and we could now decline in wave C below the Aug 5 low at 25.59, frankly none of the rallies off the Aug 5 lows is impressive so B waves are viable on many indices/stocks, nothing is high confidence here near term IMO and it's too tough for this old hombre Senor

[tomterrific14]

Too tough for me too in that symmetrical triangle of GDXJ. Was holding JDST for two round trips from 10 to 12. Yesterday got nervous as GDXJ was inching towards my stop level of 43. Sold JDST for break even, in spite of my technical view of deteriorating momentum, (TSI, etc) and super short commercials in the COT's. Triggering factor for abandoning JDST was Joanne Klein's charts on page 9 showing high risk to be short GDX, GLD and GDXJ via JDST or DUST. Today, not withstanding a further shakeout in GLD, GDX and GDXJ, the risk of another rally is even higher. Further moving me to a more bullish stance is the extreme oversold condition in SLV. A test or break of the June low in SLV not confirmed by a break of 1280 or 1240 GOLD might be a good entry point. Encouraging too would be a leveling out of the momentum indicators, TSI, MACD, etc, and a "puking out" of the very large Spec Long positions in the COT, accompanied by a corresponding reduction in the very large short position of the Commercials. Fundamentals for the Gold Miners (GDX), going forward are very favorable (greatly reduced all in costs, greatly improved quarterly EPS versus year ago levels, etc.) Technically, though Daily momentum indicators are negative or deteriorating, the WEEKLIES are NOT. IMO. the downside is limited in GDX to, at worst, the June up gap of 24.80 to 25.20. Thinking a bottom for GOLD on or around Aug.26th, option expiration for GOLD contract. Will be tracking JNUG or NUGT for a buy when technicals turn favorable.

[tomterrific14]

Too tough for me too in that symmetrical triangle of GDXJ. Was holding JDST for two round trips from 10 to 12. Yesterday got nervous as GDXJ was inching towards my stop level of 43. Sold JDST for break even, in spite of my technical view of deteriorating momentum, (TSI, etc) and super short commercials in the COT's.

Triggering factor for abandoning JDST was Joanne Klein's charts on page 9 showing high risk to be short GDX, GLD and GDXJ via JDST or DUST.

http://stockcharts.c...1107832/tenpp/9

Today, not withstanding a further shakeout in GLD, GDX and GDXJ, the risk of another rally is even higher. Further moving me to a more bullish stance is the extreme oversold condition in SLV. A test or break of the June low in SLV not confirmed by a break of 1280 or 1240 GOLD might be a good entry point.

Encouraging too would be a leveling out of the momentum indicators, TSI, MACD, etc, and a "puking out" of the very large Spec Long positions in the COT, accompanied by a corresponding reduction in the very large short position of the Commercials.

Fundamentals for the Gold Miners (GDX), going forward are very favorable (greatly reduced all in costs, greatly improved quarterly EPS versus year ago levels, etc.)

Technically, though Daily momentum indicators are negative or deteriorating, the WEEKLIES are NOT. IMO. the downside is limited in GDX to, at worst, the June up gap of 24.80 to 25.20.

Thinking a bottom for GOLD on or around Aug.26th, option expiration for GOLD contract.

Will be tracking JNUG or NUGT for a buy when technicals turn favorable.

[Rogerdodger]

My rule: "Never fade the Senor"

Weekly $GOLD shows us near the apex of a year long symmetrical triangle.

Jack Chan observes:
Summary
Long term - on major sell signal since Mar 2012.
Short term - on mixed signals.
Gold sector cycle - down as of 8/8
COT data suggests a top is in for the metals.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 August 2014 - 10:07 PM.

[dougie]

GREAT WORK: you have been NAILING IT

Too tough for me too in that symmetrical triangle of GDXJ. Was holding JDST for two round trips from 10 to 12. Yesterday got nervous as GDXJ was inching towards my stop level of 43. Sold JDST for break even, in spite of my technical view of deteriorating momentum, (TSI, etc) and super short commercials in the COT's.

Triggering factor for abandoning JDST was Joanne Klein's charts on page 9 showing high risk to be short GDX, GLD and GDXJ via JDST or DUST.

Today, not withstanding a further shakeout in GLD, GDX and GDXJ, the risk of another rally is even higher. Further moving me to a more bullish stance is the extreme oversold condition in SLV. A test or break of the June low in SLV not confirmed by a break of 1280 or 1240 GOLD might be a good entry point.

Encouraging too would be a leveling out of the momentum indicators, TSI, MACD, etc, and a "puking out" of the very large Spec Long positions in the COT, accompanied by a corresponding reduction in the very large short position of the Commercials.

Fundamentals for the Gold Miners (GDX), going forward are very favorable (greatly reduced all in costs, greatly improved quarterly EPS versus year ago levels, etc.)

Technically, though Daily momentum indicators are negative or deteriorating, the WEEKLIES are NOT. IMO. the downside is limited in GDX to, at worst, the June up gap of 24.80 to 25.20.

Thinking a bottom for GOLD on or around Aug.26th, option expiration for GOLD contract.

Will be tracking JNUG or NUGT for a buy when technicals turn favorable.

[dougie]

have to trust Señor' s instinct on this one