20 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

got back long via a JNUG trading position at 24.50, will be out quickly if we decline much from here. Senor

[dharma]

it seems to me the last year plus has been base building. sure we could decline here to make a right shoulder of an inverse h&s pattern, no problem. the thing w/bases, it is difficult to identify when the base construction has concluded. for me , and , i also lightened up trading positions into the strength is, the market has a different feel to it. no more bankster parties @3am. phase 2 will begin if this is a wave 3, in its own time. and if that is the case , then there will be few on the bulls back. i am in buy mode should a break of 1280 appear. today is the beige book report. i expect volatility. there are no more weak hands , they are out and broke dharma

[Russ]

'Rogerdodger' date='Aug 19 2014, 06:59 PM
My rule: "Never fade the Senor"

lol, you would have had your head handed to you last August 2013 with that rule. Senor believes that everyone including him is guessing as to where price is headed, a coin toss, should just head down to the local casino.

Edited by Russ, 20 August 2014 - 02:08 PM.

[goldfungus]

'Rogerdodger' date='Aug 19 2014, 06:59 PM
My rule: "Never fade the Senor"

lol, you would have had your head handed to you last August 2013 with that rule. Senor believes that everyone including him is guessing as to where price is headed, a coin toss, should just head down to the local casino.

You really think following a defined trading discipline is no better than a coin toss?

[Russ]

'Rogerdodger' date='Aug 19 2014, 06:59 PM
My rule: "Never fade the Senor"

lol, you would have had your head handed to you last August 2013 with that rule. Senor believes that everyone including him is guessing as to where price is headed, a coin toss, should just head down to the local casino.

You really think following a defined trading discipline is no better than a coin toss?

A defined trading discipline that is based on guessing - Senor's words not mine?

[goldfungus]

'Rogerdodger' date='Aug 19 2014, 06:59 PM
My rule: "Never fade the Senor"

lol, you would have had your head handed to you last August 2013 with that rule. Senor believes that everyone including him is guessing as to where price is headed, a coin toss, should just head down to the local casino.

You really think following a defined trading discipline is no better than a coin toss?

A defined trading discipline that is based on guessing - Senor's words not mine?

I'm asking what you think?

[Russ]

'Rogerdodger' date='Aug 19 2014, 06:59 PM
My rule: "Never fade the Senor"

lol, you would have had your head handed to you last August 2013 with that rule. Senor believes that everyone including him is guessing as to where price is headed, a coin toss, should just head down to the local casino.

You really think following a defined trading discipline is no better than a coin toss?

A defined trading discipline that is based on guessing - Senor's words not mine?

I'm asking what you think?

I disagree that it is all guessing, a great deal of it is probability, that is a high percent of times an oscillator or wave count method works... unless it turns out to be the alternate count . In August 2013 I posted on this board that I disagreed with Senor and thought Gold was going down, that was not based on guessing, it was based on using an oscillator which measures momentum, it was quite clear that momentum to the upside was coming to an end, that there was no fear left and everyone had already bought. While I was getting mixed signals the oscillator showed the turn in October and initially I thought Gold stocks could go up into the end of the year which I eventually decided was wrong, I had a contradictory signal on Silver for it to bottom at the end of the year which was quite correct. The oscillator projected a low in late June which showed the correct trend but it was off by a few weeks as the low came in late May, usually the forecast is correct to a day or two but sometimes it can be off on the exact timing - it seems especially on the down moves but not always.

Silver is the odd one, it seems to have broken above its down trend since 2011 but if Gold breaks 1000 next year its hard to see Silver holding its current low range, we'll see.

Despite Senor using the word guess, I have lots of respect and admiration for his work too which I think is also based on probability which maybe he means when he says guessing, I just don't like the word guessing much.

If you look at Martin Armstrong's work, he was warning that gold could go down to about 1150 when it was around 1800...it went down to 1180 (was that a guess? I don't think so), he now thinks it needs to break 1000 before the bear is done. I have strong signals for major lows next June or July on both Platinum and Barrick Gold, these signal look very strong and are in agreement with Armstrong so based on my stuff there is a high probability Gold and metals in general will bottom out fairly close to the Armstrong's economic confidence model peak of early Oct 2015, so after that Gold etc. can go nuts as the next downturn in the economy takes hold going into 2016-2020, that is when Gold should go above $2000 heading towards $5000 or more, ultimately Mr. A. thinks gold can keep going right up into 2032 which is when the sixth 51.6 pi cycle wave peaks and when he thinks the USA and the west in general will completely collapse and China will become not only the top economy in the world but the economic banking center too. It is usually not a good idea to fade Armstrong, financial journalist Michael Campbell who has followed him for at least 3 decades said..."Armstrong is different than most Economists - he is usually right."

Its also interesting the MA says the USA's civilization wave structure is the type that indicates the USA will be a one time wonder, it will never be the ruling civilization again and will probably have another civil war and break up as the south will blame the north for squandering the countries capital.

Edited by Russ, 20 August 2014 - 04:36 PM.

[goldfungus]

'Rogerdodger' date='Aug 19 2014, 06:59 PM
My rule: "Never fade the Senor"

lol, you would have had your head handed to you last August 2013 with that rule. Senor believes that everyone including him is guessing as to where price is headed, a coin toss, should just head down to the local casino.

You really think following a defined trading discipline is no better than a coin toss?

A defined trading discipline that is based on guessing - Senor's words not mine?

I'm asking what you think?

I disagree that it is all guessing, a great deal of it is probability, that is a high percent of times an oscillator or wave count method works... unless it turns out to be the alternate count . In August 2013 I posted on this board that I disagreed with Senor and thought Gold was going down, that was not based on guessing, it was based on using an oscillator which measures momentum, it was quite clear that momentum to the upside was coming to an end, that there was no fear left and everyone had already bought. While I was getting mixed signals the oscillator showed the turn in October and initially I thought Gold stocks could go up into the end of the year which I eventually decided was wrong, I had a contradictory signal on Silver for it to bottom at the end of the year which was quite correct. The oscillator projected a low in late June which showed the correct trend but it was off by a few weeks as the low came in late May, usually the forecast is correct to a day or two but sometimes it can be off on the exact timing - it seems especially on the down moves but not always.

Silver is the odd one, it seems to have broken above its down trend since 2011 but if Gold breaks 1000 next year its hard to see Silver holding its current low range, we'll see.

Despite Senor using the word guess, I have lots of respect and admiration for his work too which I think is also based on probability which maybe he means when he says guessing, I just don't like the word guessing much.

If you look at Martin Armstrong's work, he was warning that gold could go down to about 1150 when it was around 1800...it went down to 1180 (was that a guess? I don't think so), he now thinks it needs to break 1000 before the bear is done. I have strong signals for major lows next June or July on both Platinum and Barrick Gold, these signal look very strong and are in agreement with Armstrong so based on my stuff there is a high probability Gold and metals in general will bottom out fairly close to the Armstrong's economic confidence model peak of early Oct 2015, so after that Gold etc. can go nuts as the next downturn in the economy takes hold going into 2016-2020, that is when Gold should go above $2000 heading towards $5000 or more, ultimately Mr. A. thinks gold can keep going right up into 2032 which is when the sixth 51.6 pi cycle wave peaks and when he thinks the USA and the west in general will completely collapse and China will become not only the top economy in the world but the economic banking center too. It is usually not a good idea to fade Armstrong, financial journalist Michael Campbell who has followed him for at least 3 decades said..."Armstrong is different than most Economists - he is usually right."

Its also interesting the MA says the USA's civilization wave structure is the type that indicates the USA will be a one time wonder, it will never be the ruling civilization again and will probably have another civil war and break up as the south will blame the north for squandering the countries capital.

That's a lot to take in. Thank you for the very detailed reply.

[johngeorge]

Mucho gratias Senor

I value your opinions on the market most highly and am delighted you have posted your thoughts and trades for us on this board. I have read your posts here for so many years and found them to be informative and very accurate. "The nose knows" and you have put money in my pockets many times over through the years with your generous and selfless posting of your analysis. You are IMO one of the best, is not the best, timer on the market on the net!!! Thank you again.

Don't like the recent action, could still be bullish but I exited all long positions, can always buy back if I think it looks good. as always DYODD and maybe this time I will be a bueno contrary indicator

BSing away

Senor

[senorBS]

added to miner longs this morning, as always DYODD and all that, now modestly long after the early week bail BSing away Senor