110 replies to this topic

[dharma]

when things are in bull mode, folks give prices to the sky, in a bear the reverse is true i have this as 5th wave, there is wide based capitulation. i have never been a big fan of silver. in the depression the spread widened, as it is here. when the bull returns it will narrow @some point , but it is quite an elastic relationship i dont base my work on marty or his work, i base my work as i see it. i dont know what early 15 holds, but i dont see new lows here. in fact i am not sold on the idea of new lows. but, i am day to day here. confidence in the system by the masses is breaking down. abroad confidence is even worse. money is flowing into dollars . way back when i thought the dollar would be king @some point. after that occurs there would be a system breakdown. we are approaching that day, but i think it has further to go. in weimar, stocks did well for a period. then when the inflation got really bad , stocks crashed. i am not , nor have i ever been looking for hyperinflation. more like the stagflation of the 70s . i am looking for confidence to be lost in the system. i thought 14 would be a transition year and the bull would return in the summer of 15 my thoughts on this are fluid, not a stagnant model. top all this off w/the wheeler cycle and you have the makings of a gold bull. until then save some cash to invest and to live on. dharma the 1st 1180 low i thought was the low for the 4.3 yr cycle. if that gets taken out, then that low is in front of us

Edited by dharma, 22 September 2014 - 10:37 AM.

[dougie]

well it is the c of B IMO this in no way acts like a B wave in silver/miners especially. it appears to me as a classic 5th wave with huge capitulation now going on right now, my dos centavos Senor [/quote]

[dharma]

by the way, as russ points out we have some top notch elliott wavers here on this forum senor and stu are @ the top of my list dharma armstrong "gold is a hedge against government"

Edited by dharma, 22 September 2014 - 11:06 AM.

[dougie]

a fifth wave of what larger count please?

[senorBS]

SLV/Silver 14 bar RSI Friday was right at the most extreme oversold levels in the past decade, including the 2008 low. This guarantees nothing but along with sentiment IMO helps tell us how seriously the ol overbought/oversold rubber band is now stretched to the oversold side. It can go further but it is now at/near historical extremes. Senor

[dharma]

SLV/Silver 14 bar RSI Friday was right at the most extreme oversold levels in the past decade, including the 2008 low. This guarantees nothing but along with sentiment IMO helps tell us how seriously the ol overbought/oversold rubber band is now stretched to the oversold side. It can go further but it is now at/near historical extremes.

Senor

agree! in the past this is the kind of set up where bottoms occur. will this time be different?
i think not. but we will see
also the dollar seems stretched and is coming up against long term resistance.
then you have the solstice tomorrow 1st day of autumn wednesday=seasonal change
dharma

[Russ]

SLV/Silver 14 bar RSI Friday was right at the most extreme oversold levels in the past decade, including the 2008 low. This guarantees nothing but along with sentiment IMO helps tell us how seriously the ol overbought/oversold rubber band is now stretched to the oversold side. It can go further but it is now at/near historical extremes.

Senor

agree! in the past this is the kind of set up where bottoms occur. will this time be different?
i think not. but we will see
also the dollar seems stretched and is coming up against long term resistance.
then you have the solstice tomorrow 1st day of autumn wednesday=seasonal change
dharma

Yes Gannman said a few weeks ago the bottom may come in on the autumn equinox today. Silver's chart looks like an exhaustion gap too Senor, it just dropped straight down.

[Russ]

Silver has broken major support while gold has not, some say when these two diverge that can be the sign of a bottom.

[goldfungus]

Silver has broken major support while gold has not, some say when these two diverge that can be the sign of a bottom.

Rumor is a large holder of gold and silver is puking their holdings. Sentiment is butt ugly. We're getting close.

[senorBS]

More on extreme sentiment, per this chart Friday's CEF discount to NAV of 8.77% was the largest since the bull market began in 2000/2001, and the beat goes on.......

click "pricing information" at the top for the correct chart

http://www.cefconnec...aspx?ticker=cef

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 22 September 2014 - 05:15 PM.