110 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

What does Gold do from here? Possibilities to ponder:

1. This is a very, very deep retracement of the rally from June to July (1240-1345) and is done - is anyone at all buying here?

2. we are still correcting a 5-wave rally from last Dec to March (1182 -1388) and need to at least take out 1240 before that is complete

3. We are going to major new decline lows below 1180

I have no strong inclination at this time

Senor

door #3 gained prominence last week with the decline below 1230, it is "so far" acting like a potential post triangle thrust below 1180 is potentially unfolding, door #2's outcome remains viable with the oversold technicals and extreme levels of bearish sentiment. At this time I think one has to "allow for" door #3 to play out while watching closely for a strong and sustained upside reversal which could occur IMO at any time.

BSing away

Senor

[Russ]

Avi Gilburt of ElliotwaveTrader.net has been correctly bearish all along and says its going down to the 1000 area... http://seekingalpha....d-still-to-come

[dharma]

as hulbert pointed out in that piece i posted sentiment is @ an extreme . as senor points out dsi is @an extreme. that current ratio for the commercials has been the story, its in line.
Martin Armstrong on Gold: Bottoms out at the End of 2015 / Early 2016 at the latest, with a worst case scenario of US$650 with 'ideal' somewhere between US$875 - $910. He cites Dollar strength, and failure of Gold to rally with all recent Geopolitical events will cause people to conclude that "It will never go up & liquidate". "Profits from Long gold positions not going to happen right now" In respect of potential Economic Black Swans: "Not just yet - Retail participation in markets is 4% at lowest levels - there is no bubble - economic growth is slowing but we are still growing and holding up the world" "The next decline will be worse than the last". DF: I can reassure you that if Gold goes under $920 then Silver will be plumbing a US$12 Handle without exception. This said I have little doubt that we will see a sub US$1100 handle in Gold. All these inevitabilities are NO excuse to not be buying Physical Gold and Silver as when the day of reckoning arrives retail supplies will dry up within weeks.



my work shows something different from marty, i see a rally this week. my stuff shows the lows being tested. not broken. can i be wrong sure. i am operating under that premise.
dharma

[dharma]

the gann guy on commodities
http://www.ganngloba...2d173f6c2b6f38d
dharma

[senorBS]

GDXJ has shown very good relative strength so far with the early morning GDX weakness, could be "leading" as GDX goes positive and GDXJ now up .79, however I do expect a very volatile week and there is still nothing at all clear or decisive as far as a "possible" bottom goes Senor

[senorBS]

the gann guy on commodities
http://www.ganngloba...2d173f6c2b6f38d
dharma

everyone is or has thrown in the towel it seems, sentiment appears as bad or worse then at the June and even last years lows and prices are so far higher, hmmmm, awaiting evidence however

also interesting that the GDX at 23.87 is up almost 13% for the calendar year at this time and yet sentiment currently is at/near some of the most extreme level of bearishness seen in the past 5-6 years, almost trying to convince me this is a wave 2 decline and no new lows will be seen, watching and waiting

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 15 September 2014 - 10:39 AM.

[dharma]

the gann guy on commodities
http://www.ganngloba...2d173f6c2b6f38d
dharma

everyone is or has thrown in the towel it seems, sentiment appears as bad or worse then at the June and even last years lows and prices are so far higher, hmmmm, awaiting evidence however

also interesting that the GDX at 23.87 is up almost 13% for the calendar year at this time and yet sentiment currently is at/near some of the most extreme level of bearishness seen in the past 5-6 years, almost trying to convince me this is a wave 2 decline and no new lows will be seen, watching and waiting

Senor

yes, all the signs of capitulation are there. what we need to see is the market moving up. miners are leading, as they have been.
i am , it seems alone in not looking for new lows but, what do i know?
dharma

[dougie]

marty might well be right doesn't mean we might not bounce here and there

[dougie]

Avi Gilburt of ElliotwaveTrader.net has been correctly bearish all along and says its going down to the 1000 area... http://seekingalpha....d-still-to-come

odd that he indicates he is LONG silver (maybe he failed to update that disclosure)

[dougie]

how abut 13$ for silver, not 12?

as hulbert pointed out in that piece i posted sentiment is @ an extreme . as senor points out dsi is @an extreme. that current ratio for the commercials has been the story, its in line.
Martin Armstrong on Gold: Bottoms out at the End of 2015 / Early 2016 at the latest, with a worst case scenario of US$650 with 'ideal' somewhere between US$875 - $910. He cites Dollar strength, and failure of Gold to rally with all recent Geopolitical events will cause people to conclude that "It will never go up & liquidate". "Profits from Long gold positions not going to happen right now" In respect of potential Economic Black Swans: "Not just yet - Retail participation in markets is 4% at lowest levels - there is no bubble - economic growth is slowing but we are still growing and holding up the world" "The next decline will be worse than the last". DF: I can reassure you that if Gold goes under $920 then Silver will be plumbing a US$12 Handle without exception. This said I have little doubt that we will see a sub US$1100 handle in Gold. All these inevitabilities are NO excuse to not be buying Physical Gold and Silver as when the day of reckoning arrives retail supplies will dry up within weeks.



my work shows something different from marty, i see a rally this week. my stuff shows the lows being tested. not broken. can i be wrong sure. i am operating under that premise.
dharma