202 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

Decent close today in the miners today and the set up for at least a significant near term rally looks better than it has for several days, but certainly nothing clear at all yet. The 10-day's MA's of DSI Bulls is now at an extremely low 8.5% in both gold and silver. And here is some additional and more recent Hulbert sentiment data as his HGNSI moved to even more bearish levels.

http://www.marketwat...s-in-2014-09-24

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 25 September 2014 - 06:47 PM.

[dharma]

sentiment
.. HGNSI unchanged yesterday at -46.9%
MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell a point today to 43%
DSI rose 3 points to 13%.
these #s indicate gold advisers are on the ledge
even gold bugs are advising to sell , they see lower #s ahead =eg larry edelson
my stuff says nothing about lower #s for gold, which i dont take as the be all and end all.
but, the indication is no new lows.
todays cot should be interesting? large specs were more and more short
and the commercials were moving towards balance. commercials if they are long is + indicator
this guy presents a bear case http://www.safehaven...ad-ahead-part-1 i am just presenting this, not that i totally agree w/him
note silver may be sold out!
dharma

[Russ]

Here's an elliott wave idea from Elliottwavetrader that fits with what I am seeing for a high at the end of the year.

Also... Swaps just went net long silver. And they're the 'longest' (least short really) they've been in gold since November of last year. http://www.cftc.gov/...es/other_lf.htm

[Russ]

My version of the above chart, note the fractal like pattern repetition of the current abcde and the past abcde as well as the symmetry and connections of the trend lines...

[senorBS]

Here's an elliott wave idea from Elliottwavetrader that fits with what I am seeing for a high at the end of the year.

Also... Swaps just went net long silver. And they're the 'longest' (least short really) they've been in gold since November of last year. http://www.cftc.gov/...es/other_lf.htm

Si, a decent possibility and one I've been considering if we rally sharply from this 1200-1210 area. Given how oversold we are and the bearish sentiment extremes at least an intermediate term rally seems likely, we see.

Senor

[senorBS]

Here's an elliott wave idea from Elliottwavetrader that fits with what I am seeing for a high at the end of the year.

Also... Swaps just went net long silver. And they're the 'longest' (least short really) they've been in gold since November of last year. http://www.cftc.gov/...es/other_lf.htm

Si, a decent possibility and one I've been considering if we rally sharply from this 1200-1210 area. Given how oversold we are and the bearish sentiment extremes at least an intermediate term rally seems likely, we see.

Senor

I have been considering silver wave counts that might fit into this "possible" gold contracting triangle. The most likely possibility IMO is that silver from the August 2013 large degree wave 4 high near 25 is now tracing out a large degree 5th wave diagonal triangle, if correct wave three of that diagonal should be at/near completion. This count would frustrate the bears looking for a big downside move immediately to 15 or lower, as well as the bulls looking for a major bottom. If we do rally the 19-20 area would seem a likely target, buy if it's wave four of a diagonal it could be a very ugly drawn out affair, we see.

Senor

[Russ]

Here's an elliott wave idea from Elliottwavetrader that fits with what I am seeing for a high at the end of the year.

Also... Swaps just went net long silver. And they're the 'longest' (least short really) they've been in gold since November of last year. http://www.cftc.gov/...es/other_lf.htm

Si, a decent possibility and one I've been considering if we rally sharply from this 1200-1210 area. Given how oversold we are and the bearish sentiment extremes at least an intermediate term rally seems likely, we see.

Senor

I have been considering silver wave counts that might fit into this "possible" gold contracting triangle. The most likely possibility IMO is that silver from the August 2013 large degree wave 4 high near 25 is now tracing out a large degree 5th wave diagonal triangle, if correct wave three of that diagonal should be at/near completion. This count would frustrate the bears looking for a big downside move immediately to 15 or lower, as well as the bulls looking for a major bottom. If we do rally the 19-20 area would seem a likely target, buy if it's wave four of a diagonal it could be a very ugly drawn out affair, we see.

Senor

What would be your downside target for Silver after a possible rally to 19-20?

Russ

[Russ]

sentiment
.. HGNSI unchanged yesterday at -46.9%
MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell a point today to 43%
DSI rose 3 points to 13%.
these #s indicate gold advisers are on the ledge
even gold bugs are advising to sell , they see lower #s ahead =eg larry edelson
my stuff says nothing about lower #s for gold, which i dont take as the be all and end all.
but, the indication is no new lows.
todays cot should be interesting? large specs were more and more short
and the commercials were moving towards balance. commercials if they are long is + indicator
this guy presents a bear case http://www.safehaven...ad-ahead-part-1 i am just presenting this, not that i totally agree w/him
note silver may be sold out!
dharma

Good article, but his dollar chart is too short, what is not shown is the very long term down trendline from 1985 and 2001 which it is now approaching. Selective data sets is not too honest is it?

Edited by Russ, 27 September 2014 - 11:22 AM.

[senorBS]

Here's an elliott wave idea from Elliottwavetrader that fits with what I am seeing for a high at the end of the year.

Also... Swaps just went net long silver. And they're the 'longest' (least short really) they've been in gold since November of last year. http://www.cftc.gov/...es/other_lf.htm

Si, a decent possibility and one I've been considering if we rally sharply from this 1200-1210 area. Given how oversold we are and the bearish sentiment extremes at least an intermediate term rally seems likely, we see.

Senor

I have been considering silver wave counts that might fit into this "possible" gold contracting triangle. The most likely possibility IMO is that silver from the August 2013 large degree wave 4 high near 25 is now tracing out a large degree 5th wave diagonal triangle, if correct wave three of that diagonal should be at/near completion. This count would frustrate the bears looking for a big downside move immediately to 15 or lower, as well as the bulls looking for a major bottom. If we do rally the 19-20 area would seem a likely target, buy if it's wave four of a diagonal it could be a very ugly drawn out affair, we see.

Senor

What would be your downside target for Silver after a possible rally to 19-20?

Russ

If it is diagonal then modestly lower lows at worst and no plunge down at all, the "slope" of this entire decline from the 25 area is not steep, depending on where this legs final bottom is, perhaps a dollar below that low (plus or minus a bit)

Senor

[dougie]

looks good

1340s here we come?

Here's an elliott wave idea from Elliottwavetrader that fits with what I am seeing for a high at the end of the year.

Also... Swaps just went net long silver. And they're the 'longest' (least short really) they've been in gold since November of last year. http://www.cftc.gov/...es/other_lf.htm