90 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

muy tricky here, that could have been a quick abc gap fill form this mornin in the GDX but GDXJ is very weak and well below early gap, if they close it strong it looks better, close it weak and looks lousy, tough call here Senor

[redbrush]

don't like this in miners, now flat trading positions, will only buy a near term breakout or a thrust to new lows

Senor

Agree with not liking the miners.

I thought we needed a 4th wave and one more low. Looking at two possibilities.

Yours where we completed the e wave and now will thrust to new low.

Or we are in a triangle correcting the a wave up that occurred on 10/8. The e wave you mentioned could be a d wave in this b triangle and we now are in the e wave of this triangle with one more up move before the next low.

Either way I see another low to come.

Edited by redbrush, 21 October 2014 - 01:47 PM.

[senorBS]

don't like this in miners, now flat trading positions, will only buy a near term breakout or a thrust to new lows

Senor

Agree with not liking the miners.

I thought we needed a 4th wave and one more low. Looking at two possibilities.

Yours where we completed the e wave and now will thrust to new low.

Or we are in a triangle correcting the a wave up that occurred on 10/8. The e wave you mentioned could be a d wave in this b triangle and we now are in the e wave of this triangle with one more up move before the next low.

Either way I see another low to come.

I can't disagree that either one of those possibilities is very valid, and it is still viable importante low are already in place, however the sloppy action does not so far inspire any bullish confidence, muy tough here

Senor

[redbrush]

don't like this in miners, now flat trading positions, will only buy a near term breakout or a thrust to new lows

Senor

Agree with not liking the miners.

I thought we needed a 4th wave and one more low. Looking at two possibilities.

Yours where we completed the e wave and now will thrust to new low.

Or we are in a triangle correcting the a wave up that occurred on 10/8. The e wave you mentioned could be a d wave in this b triangle and we now are in the e wave of this triangle with one more up move before the next low.

Either way I see another low to come.

I can't disagree that either one of those possibilities is very valid, and it is still viable importante low are already in place, however the sloppy action does not so far inspire any bullish confidence, muy tough here

Senor

Very tough, but interesting here--b-wave triangle eliminated with a move below GDX 20.69. This option being tested this morning.

[senorBS]

don't like this in miners, now flat trading positions, will only buy a near term breakout or a thrust to new lows

Senor

Agree with not liking the miners.

I thought we needed a 4th wave and one more low. Looking at two possibilities.

Yours where we completed the e wave and now will thrust to new low.

Or we are in a triangle correcting the a wave up that occurred on 10/8. The e wave you mentioned could be a d wave in this b triangle and we now are in the e wave of this triangle with one more up move before the next low.

Either way I see another low to come.

I can't disagree that either one of those possibilities is very valid, and it is still viable importante low are already in place, however the sloppy action does not so far inspire any bullish confidence, muy tough here

Senor

Very tough, but interesting here--b-wave triangle eliminated with a move below GDX 20.69. This option being tested this morning.

IMO B wave tri very unlikely, I got two counts here, one takes us just below GDX 20.68 (low 20.73 so far) for a key secondary low, the other has it thrusting below 20.11 for a key low. and to complicate things slight failures here would not surprise me. Watch ABX which appears in an ending "diagonal" tri, it made a major new decline low at 13.37, new low by 4 ticks, and has not bounced to
13.59.

Senor

[tomterrific14]

don't like this in miners, now flat trading positions, will only buy a near term breakout or a thrust to new lows

Senor

Agree with not liking the miners.

I thought we needed a 4th wave and one more low. Looking at two possibilities.

Yours where we completed the e wave and now will thrust to new low.

Or we are in a triangle correcting the a wave up that occurred on 10/8. The e wave you mentioned could be a d wave in this b triangle and we now are in the e wave of this triangle with one more up move before the next low.

Either way I see another low to come.

I can't disagree that either one of those possibilities is very valid, and it is still viable importante low are already in place, however the sloppy action does not so far inspire any bullish confidence, muy tough here

Senor

Very tough, but interesting here--b-wave triangle eliminated with a move below GDX 20.69. This option being tested this morning.

IMO B wave tri very unlikely, I got two counts here, one takes us just below GDX 20.68 (low 20.73 so far) for a key secondary low, the other has it thrusting below 20.11 for a key low. and to complicate things slight failures here would not surprise me. Watch ABX which appears in an ending "diagonal" tri, it made a major new decline low at 13.37, new low by 4 ticks, and has not bounced to
13.59.

Senor

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=abx

Pick the low on ABX and you have the low on GDX,GDXJ.

How much downside is there on ABX when the AISC is 865 per oz. ? Not sure what is was at the July 2013 low 0f 13.25, but must hace been at least 100 per oz. higher.

[goldfungus]

Maybe Mutual Fund year end keeps pressure on miners into month's end.

[senorBS]

ok, had the obligatory bounce, now looks like GDX and GDXJ ready to register new secondary low below 20.68 and 31.80, once they do that then the key is do we soon bottom or is a post contracting tri thrust headed to new decline lows (below GDX 20.11). The good news is that it is slowly clearing up and much better buying opps will present themselves IMO. Senor

[senorBS]

so here is what we have so far, GDXJ did barely take out the previous 31.80 low, so this "could be ending a wave "c" down from the initial straight up rally off the Oct 8 bottom. XAU took out the comparable low as well, so far the GDX failed by 3 ticks, the HUI by 5 ticks and GDM by 7 ticks to make that new secondary low. The day is far from over and we are barely above those lows but this is a very. very critical level and juncture. I'd prefer all those indices to make new secondary lows and then see if wee accelerate down to new major decline lows or rally sharply which would indicate a key bottom, watching for now Senor

Edited by senorBS, 22 October 2014 - 11:50 AM.

[redbrush]

so here is what we have so far, GDXJ did barely take out the previous 31.80 low, so this "could be ending a wave "c" down from the initial straight up rally off the Oct 8 bottom. XAU took out the comparable low as well, so far the GDX failed by 3 ticks, the HUI by 5 ticks and GDM by 7 ticks to make that new secondary low. The day is far from over and we are barely above those lows but this is a very. very critical level and juncture. I'd prefer all those indices to make new secondary lows and then see if wee accelerate down to new major decline lows or rally sharply which would indicate a key bottom, watching for now

Senor

Thanks for the reminder, been too fixated on playing around with GDX, Scalping in and out a couple times as it approached those last bottoms, which have been holding. Today should give us some useful info. There do seem to be some buyers around here. I wouldn't mind seeing a move down to the 78.6% of that Oct 8 move. 20.55 are on GDX.