90 replies to this topic

[Smithy]

Senor, at what point would you consider a new bull market confirmed? What do you look for? For me it would be exceeding 1393 and 1430 (the completion of a base), plus hopefully evidence of 5 waves up.

[senorBS]

so far doing what we had to if abc declines in the miners is the operative count, GDX up 50 centavos, perhaps, just perhaps, the HUI/GOLD "snapback" is beginning, we see

BSing away

Senor

so far and I stress "so far" so good in the miners for a potential wave 2 bottom and near term wave 3 unfolding with more solid upside this mornin, if this is correct pullbacks should be mild and brief with GDX at a minimum headed above 22.16 and a good chance to be headed toward 23.50, we see

Senor

[senorBS]

Senor, at what point would you consider a new bull market confirmed? What do you look for?

For me it would be exceeding 1393 and 1430 (the completion of a base), plus hopefully evidence of 5 waves up.

Too tough and not enough info for me to seriously consider that at this time, are we talking cyclical or secular bull? All my focus is in the near term and if I gt that right the intermediate and longer term will eventually work itself out.

Senor

[senorBS]

the alternate bearish GDX/XAU count is that this mornings rally is ending wave "e" of a bearish contracting triangle and then we have one more thrust down to a new decline low and another trading bottom, we should know soon Senor

[Smithy]

I am a secular gold bull because it seems to be the fundamentals of spiraling debt growth support that. -- I appreciate that you may not use or need the larger framework, taking an investor's short term pragmatic entry approach and letting the long term look after itself. (And I can't get Elvis' singing out of my head..)

[Smithy]

the alternate bearish GDX/XAU count is that this mornings rally is ending wave "e" of a bearish contracting triangle and then we have one more thrust down to a new decline low and another trading bottom, we should know soon

I track the HUI/gold ratio and it nearly always turns before the gold price. In the last two weeks it has not, and I am reluctantly considering conspiracy theories that large sums of money are shorting gold shares, more than the metal because in shorting the metal it either has to be supplied or the shorts bought back, where gold shares can be manipulated on a cash basis.

Putting this in other words, I find the weakness of the HUI/gold ratio and of gold stocks in the face of a rising gold price most unusual. Comments?

[senorBS]

the alternate bearish GDX/XAU count is that this mornings rally is ending wave "e" of a bearish contracting triangle and then we have one more thrust down to a new decline low and another trading bottom, we should know soon

I track the HUI/gold ratio and it nearly always turns before the gold price. In the last two weeks it has not, and I am reluctantly considering conspiracy theories that large sums of money are shorting gold shares, more than the metal because in shorting the metal it either has to be supplied or the shorts bought back, where gold shares can be manipulated on a cash basis.

Putting this in other words, I find the weakness of the HUI/gold ratio and of gold stocks in the face of a rising gold price most unusual. Comments?

agree that is a concern and perhaps the poor recent miner action vs gold supports the bearish near term contracting triangle count, I think we may know by today's end or tomorrow at the latest, we see

Senor

[dougie]

jrs underfperfroming here

[senorBS]

delete

Edited by senorBS, 21 October 2014 - 11:56 AM.

[senorBS]

don't like this in miners, now flat trading positions, will only buy a near term breakout or a thrust to new lows Senor

Edited by senorBS, 21 October 2014 - 01:03 PM.