90 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

i dont think anyone has mentioned this, but to me it shows the distortion and bearishness in the market:
in 08 gold was 680 and the low in gdx was 15.83 . today gold is 1229 and is 20.54. in essence they are beating
the miners out of proportion. when this turns, @some point these miners will fly, maybe not right away, but , @some
point they are seen as real value
silver still up on the day. biggest month of the year, even w/over a week left to the month of silver sales @the us mint
so the pms feel heavy. even the bulls are bearish
yet, there is big buying occurring
dharma

Dharma, that's a great point about the GDX bottoming at 15.83 in 2008 with gold hitting 680 and today hitting a low near 20 with gold at 1225-1230, I'd say the miners are about as pummeled as I have ever seen then.

Senor

and by the way that GDX low was on Oct 24,2008, today I believe is Oct 23, interesting

Senor

as you know gann was big on anniversary dates. yes, the miners are way overdone. dont know when , but there will be a huge catchup @some point
dharma

well if we have finished a double thrust down it will be muy interesting, nearer term wave "e" in GDX at 31.56, intermediate term larger wave E above 27 in August, those are targets if it's finito, we see

BSing away

Senor

[dharma]

i dont think anyone has mentioned this, but to me it shows the distortion and bearishness in the market:
in 08 gold was 680 and the low in gdx was 15.83 . today gold is 1229 and is 20.54. in essence they are beating
the miners out of proportion. when this turns, @some point these miners will fly, maybe not right away, but , @some
point they are seen as real value
silver still up on the day. biggest month of the year, even w/over a week left to the month of silver sales @the us mint
so the pms feel heavy. even the bulls are bearish
yet, there is big buying occurring
dharma

Dharma, that's a great point about the GDX bottoming at 15.83 in 2008 with gold hitting 680 and today hitting a low near 20 with gold at 1225-1230, I'd say the miners are about as pummeled as I have ever seen then.

Senor

and by the way that GDX low was on Oct 24,2008, today I believe is Oct 23, interesting

Senor

as you know gann was big on anniversary dates. yes, the miners are way overdone. dont know when , but there will be a huge catchup @some point
dharma

well if we have finished a double thrust down it will be muy interesting, nearer term wave "e" in GDX at 31.56, intermediate term larger wave E above 27 in August, those are targets if it's finito, we see

BSing away

Senor

w/this mornings capitulation . the question is who is left to jettison these stocks. they are already selling @ ridiculous valuations. in gold bulls , miners appreciate @10fold. this could be the low or we are very close.
dharma

[senorBS]

Now lets see if we can get some upside follow through, sustained above GDX 20.70-20.75 is a good step IMO, need a close above HUI 187.01 to avoid an 8th straight down seek Senor

[senorBS]

much rather have an early pullback and then strength in the miners as we have seen so far as opposed to a gap at this time, much "healthier" IMO, I now have fairly aggressive trading longs, now lets see if we can significantly extend yesterday's reversal rally Senor

[dharma]

much rather have an early pullback and then strength in the miners as we have seen so far as opposed to a gap at this time, much "healthier" IMO, I now have fairly aggressive trading longs, now lets see if we can significantly extend yesterday's reversal rally

Senor

the way i am interpreting the tea leaves is sometime next week. normally i would think monday after mercury goes direct but the fed meeting is the 29th. i do think the lows are in. so far the bears have been pushing on a string and making little headway.
dharma

[tomterrific14]

much rather have an early pullback and then strength in the miners as we have seen so far as opposed to a gap at this time, much "healthier" IMO, I now have fairly aggressive trading longs, now lets see if we can significantly extend yesterday's reversal rally

Senor

the way i am interpreting the tea leaves is sometime next week. normally i would think monday after mercury goes direct but the fed meeting is the 29th. i do think the lows are in. so far the bears have been pushing on a string and making little headway.
dharma

Initial position in a managed account, JNUG @ 8.60

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=jnug

[senorBS]

IMO best thing we could see today is the miners rally with gold flat, that needs to start happening if we are going to see an important low here Senor

[redbrush]

IMO best thing we could see today is the miners rally with gold flat, that needs to start happening if we are going to see an important low here

Senor

Looking similar to that last 4th wave contracting triangle after the OCT 8 rally??? Might of had a 1-2 and i-ii at the beginning of this move down and now a iv-v with a 4 in a contracting triangle now and one more 5 down??

[senorBS]

IMO best thing we could see today is the miners rally with gold flat, that needs to start happening if we are going to see an important low here

Senor

Looking similar to that last 4th wave contracting triangle after the OCT 8 rally??? Might of had a 1-2 and i-ii at the beginning of this move down and now a iv-v with a 4 in a contracting triangle now and one more 5 down??

hard to say, close enuf for horse shoes and hand grenades perhaps

Senor

[risk_management]

Considering Thursday's candle, I have to play miners on the long side. Euro is trying to find some footing and we have fed meeting on the deck. Risk is clearly defined so I am not sure if this can get any clearer.