70 replies to this topic

[dharma]

the gann guy http://www.ganngloba.../2015/15-01-GGF Webinar Invitation.php?inf_contact_key=814fc412c3cf43778800179d425bf91bed1da55188b
looking @ gold in other currencies, other than the dollar and swiss . gold looks good in the past bull market the swiss was considered one of the strong currencies. it seems to be gaining that mantle again.
i guess the rupee looks strong against the dollar http://www.graceland...jan20rupee1.png. we are now beginning indian wedding season and the chinese new year. it should be a strong time for gold. the large miners are leading the juniors. and gold is leading silver. yesterdays parameters may not be the story, if the bottom is in and we are starting a new leg up. i see marty says if above 1350 then the low could be in. 1350 is where the break of the pennant projects to. morgan stanley is bullish the australlian miners http://www.businessi...n-miners-2015-1
meanwhile all is not well on wall street http://www.dailymail...nue-dry-up.html and we have a bull market in stocks!
the swiss move was not w/o consequences http://www.bloomberg...n-mounting.html
jim ricards http://dailyreckonin...-global-effort/

the assault on 1300 begins market is overbought. thursday the ecb meets.
dharma

[dharma]

2 things are etched into my brain. 1-the double bottom in the miners w/the 08 low. gold was more than 500 lower than. i have to think @some point the miners put on a big rally , like in 08 and never look back 2-the crowd has believed until the swiss surprise backtrack move . that cbs are /were infallible . the swiss talked to back the peg until they surprised the market and no longer held onto the peg. which other cb will back track on their policies dharma

[dharma]

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Gold importers are offering a discount of up to $16 an ounce versus London prices, the widest in 17 months, as jewellers curtail purchases ahead of a possible cut in the import duty. India, which vies with China as the world's top gold consumer, raised import taxes on the metal to 10 percent in a series of hikes to August 2013 as policymakers scrambled to narrow a gaping current account deficit and arrest a free fall in the currency. Now a falling trade deficit has stoked expectations the government will cut the import duty in the budget to be presented on Feb. 28. A drop in the duty could reduce smuggling and increase demand, supporting a rebound in global prices. "Jewellers are keeping lower inventory. They are not making big purchases expecting an import duty cut," said Daman Prakash Rathod, director with Chennai-based wholesaler MNC Bullion. The gold discount varied from $4 to $16 per ounce in different India cities, with the highest being offered in southern India. Importers generally charge a premium over London prices. "This is the right time to cut the import duty. The trade deficit has come under control due to sharp fall in crude oil prices," Bachhraj Bamalwa, director at the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, told Reuters. India's trade deficit shrank to a 10-month low in December. Bamalwa, whose federation represents more than 300,000 jewellers, met commerce ministry officials earlier this month to press industry's demands ahead of the budget. "The commerce ministry officials were convinced and have forwarded our proposals to the finance ministry," he said. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Tuesday declined to comment on gold import duty. Industry officials say the reduction in the duty is quite possible as imports plunged to $1.34 billion in December from $5.61 billion in November despite scrapping the so-called 80:20 rule mandating traders to export a fifth of all imported gold. "The imports in January will be lower than last month," said Rathod. gold is overbought. so are the miners . gg acquired, in a friendly takeover, probe mines. expanding their porcupine district. this could be the shot across the juniors bow. looking for a short term correction here. then an assault on 1300. i look for the rally to carry to 1350 ish. dharma

[dharma]

w/the chinese new year and the indian wedding season upon us
this chart is no surprise
http://seasonalchart...ssics_gold.html
dharma

[dharma]

draghi will initiate a 60billion a month qe starting in march. hello! not enough fiat around? gold is overbought right here. and its in the round # resistance. my target is 1350. i am looking for a small pullback . but who knows it could keep chugging higher, not a great \ bet though. @this point the pattern looks impulsive. i want to see a clear 5 up then the pullback will be worth adding to longs . the indian budget is scheduled for feb 28th . lets see if jaitley lowere the tax on gold . banksters are predicting the trade deficit turns into a surplus due to lower oil prices. i have thought that too,, but not as quick as its going to happen dharma

[dharma]

into resistance we went in the 1305 area. we are way overbought. could have finished a 5 wave advance. indian demand is quiet. they are waiting to see if the duties are lowered on the 28th of feb when the new budget is submitted.
gold has broken out in canadian dollars. in the usa there is work to be done in this area on the charts.
greek elections on the 25th http://www.forexlive...-in-greek-poll/
that must put the folks w/cush jobs in belgium on the edge of their seats.
i have noticed the build of gold reserves on the gld has come from the hedgies.
dharma
oh yeah the gann guy weinar from yesterday http://www.ganngloba...r-Recording.php

Edited by dharma, 23 January 2015 - 11:20 AM.

[dharma]

in the last couple of days the miners have not kept up w/the metals, thus todays correction. also, the buying has come from large specs, who are now underwater, not a great set up for option expiration on tuesda i also dont expect the fed to be friendly towards the pms. i have several possibilities here, we need more action to determine which will be the true outcome dharma

[dharma]

the gold market came into resistance -1300 and was overbought. it is time for a correction. to top that off the cots showed the sharks to have put on a massive short position. cots are generally traders. the last 2 days could have seen some balancing. also , keep in mind as in the dollar , the sharks have been massively short for quite some time. they have added to their short dollar position, in spite of the fact it keeps going against them. what i am saying here is their gold position will be worked off to a more reasonable level on this decline. also, once the bull starts to express itself i think the commercials let their short positions grow. in 1980 they were massively short as were the exchange members. they changed the rules so you could not buy silver contracts only sell. that coupled w/volkers persistance of raising rates broke the back of the market. if you are looking for a level playing field better try something else. it aint going to happen here. this market will get away from them for a period down the road. as it did last time. i dont expect this time to be different.
i am standing aside and letting this correction express itself. not sure we finished 1 up (5 waves ) or we have finished 3of 1 or this was just another correction. for me once march rolls around and the 21-22 month cycle has completed , then its a different ball game. for now , its wait and see.
the gann guys latest http://www.ganngloba...57a201470feeecd
dharma
below zero interest rates exist in several countries. this is reminiscent of the great depression. its a very rare occurrence

[dharma]

cot positions change quickly gdx is now up on the day. i do expect the miners to lead on the upside. and if we head down they can also lead that way also this correction may have ended. volatility will rule. watch india and china 70tons was taken for delivery off the shanghai last week! the east is where the demand will come from the west is awash in debt , w/negative interest rates and printing parties. its not where the demand will come from dharma

[dharma]

it no longer surprises me how quickly folks turn bearish on gold , after all 3 yrs of bear market makes a big impression. it should and does. yet in the news russia continues to add to their gold reserves . and for the 1st time in 16 yrs so did the netherlands, and this after their successful gold repatriation. w/an eye towards the growing market , cme is opening a contract that is convertible into physical gold .999 % pure. they are planning to stock their warehouse their w/gold bars. on the charts i see an inverse h&s pattern on gold and silver w/a double head pattern. projecting into the 1350 area. my preferred count @this time is we have either finished 4 or we are still in 4 , w/5 to follow. if not it could be back to the bear!? we have options expiration and the fed meets today and tomorrow. so, it may take till thursday for the market to get direction. the charts look constructive, but we need the market to make new highs to confirm the look w/the euro now entering into the fray, all the major fiats are in a race to the bottom. strangled by rising debt their choices are few speaking to investors here -----got gold dharma one last thought, indias cb has the largest dollar reserves it has ever had, and yet the price of the rupee is rising. raj seems to be thinking that if the rupee starts losing ground, he can sell some dollars and keep the rupee stable. for gold watch the far east the west has played its hand. its called 0%interest rates and qe to infinity. starring buzz light year "to infinity and beyond"

Edited by dharma, 27 January 2015 - 10:32 AM.