41 replies to this topic

[brucekeller]

That 3.75 mark was right in the middle of the 08/09 gap up, and it seems to have been resistance... will soon TLT be 5 times of that of JNK, or back to 2? Looks like we'll find out one way or the other within a month.

Edited by brucekeller, 01 February 2015 - 03:28 PM.

[salam]

No Limit Down then! Another FF bites the dust !

[prognosticator]

No Limit Down then!

Another FF bites the dust !

HAHAHAHA. First of all it is not Monday in the US, secondly, you need to take your meds.

[salam]

No Limit Down then!

Another FF bites the dust !

HAHAHAHA. First of all it is not Monday in the US, secondly, you need to take your meds.

Waiting patiently for Mondays limit down then....Meds taken now

[kaiser soze]

That 3.75 mark was right in the middle of the 08/09 gap up, and it seems to have been resistance... will soon TLT be 5the gre times of that of JNK, or back to 2? Looks like we'll find out one way or the other within a month.

Yes, when one looks at the TLT going parabolic, the question is "what do long term government bonds know that stocks do not ?". It could be the Chinese economy landing a lot harder than people expect. Oil prices gave a sniff of this. China PMI below 50 (considering these are "ChiCom gummint statistics", how bad are things really ?).

US & China are joined at the hip due to both the structure of trade-flows and the currency peg. If Yuan goes down, Dollar goes down too perhaps ? Cramer is right that XLB, XLE, SLX are all basically China plays. But then isn't Apple too considering so much of its mobile sales come from China ? What about GE & BA & GM ?

[dasein]

if by any chance we open higher than Friday's close it is a pattern buy....

Edited by dasein, 01 February 2015 - 10:24 PM.

[4caster]

[quote name='MDurkin' post='716366' date='Feb 1 2015, 04:48 AM'][quote name='4caster' post='716358' date='Jan 31 2015, 11:52 PM'][quote name='fib_1618' post='716344' date='Jan 31 2015, 05:31 PM'][quote name='csw2002' post='716339' date='Jan 31 2015, 02:01

As far as my being bullish or bearish, whatever the market tells me to be I follow its lead...I'm market neutral every single day.

Fib[/quote]
What a great statement. This is exactly why I'm a day trader and don't carry trades over night. This is why
yesterday I did 4 trades to the upside and 3 trades to the downside. As you know price is the ultimate
indicator.
[/quote]


What time frame are you trading?
[/quote]

Hi MDurkin, because I'm a day trader my time frame is 1 day. I trade 4 intraday trading patterns; wave up, wave down,
double top and double bottom. It's very unusual to see all 4 of these patterns in 1 trading day but that's exactly what happened
this past Friday. After the initial rally on Fri. morning the Spy bulled back a little bit and then rallied for a while and then began
to pull back again. At that point I draw a trendline from the initial top and pull back level and buy Puts. Typically you see the
Spy decline further and then it will rally up to the downsloping trendline and then decline again. This will continue until the
Spy rallies above the downward sloping trendline. At that point I get out of the Puts. In an upward trending wave the Spy
will rally and then pull back to the upward sloping trendline and then reverse and rally further. When the SPY drops below the
upward sloping trendline I sell the Calls. When the Spy rallies from a bottom and then reverses from the previous top to
the previous bottom and then reverses from the previous bottom you have a double bottom. When the Spy declines and then
rallies and goes up to a point where it began to decline and starts declining again you have a double top. These 4 patterns
showed themselves this past Fri. which is very unusual, but this past Friday also showed what I refer to as straight up and
straight down patterns where you could jump on the train and go for a ride, especially right after 2:30 P.M to the Put side. I'm
amazed that I was able to do 7 trades on Friday.

[MDurkin]

[quote name='4caster' post='716400' date='Feb 2 2015, 12:50 AM'][quote name='MDurkin' post='716366' date='Feb 1 2015, 04:48 AM'][quote name='4caster' post='716358' date='Jan 31 2015, 11:52 PM'][quote name='fib_1618' post='716344' date='Jan 31 2015, 05:31 PM'][quote name='csw2002' post='716339' date='Jan 31 2015, 02:01

As far as my being bullish or bearish, whatever the market tells me to be I follow its lead...I'm market neutral every single day.

Fib[/quote]
What a great statement. This is exactly why I'm a day trader and don't carry trades over night. This is why
yesterday I did 4 trades to the upside and 3 trades to the downside. As you know price is the ultimate
indicator.
[/quote]


What time frame are you trading?
[/quote]

Hi MDurkin, because I'm a day trader my time frame is 1 day. I trade 4 intraday trading patterns; wave up, wave down,
double top and double bottom. It's very unusual to see all 4 of these patterns in 1 trading day but that's exactly what happened
this past Friday. After the initial rally on Fri. morning the Spy bulled back a little bit and then rallied for a while and then began
to pull back again. At that point I draw a trendline from the initial top and pull back level and buy Puts. Typically you see the
Spy decline further and then it will rally up to the downsloping trendline and then decline again. This will continue until the
Spy rallies above the downward sloping trendline. At that point I get out of the Puts. In an upward trending wave the Spy
will rally and then pull back to the upward sloping trendline and then reverse and rally further. When the SPY drops below the
upward sloping trendline I sell the Calls. When the Spy rallies from a bottom and then reverses from the previous top to
the previous bottom and then reverses from the previous bottom you have a double bottom. When the Spy declines and then
rallies and goes up to a point where it began to decline and starts declining again you have a double top. These 4 patterns
showed themselves this past Fri. which is very unusual, but this past Friday also showed what I refer to as straight up and
straight down patterns where you could jump on the train and go for a ride, especially right after 2:30 P.M to the Put side. I'm
amazed that I was able to do 7 trades on Friday.
[/quote]

Thanks for the reply.When you draw the lines in a chart what time frame are you drawing them 1,5,10,15...minute?

[4caster]

[quote name='MDurkin' post='716401' date='Feb 2 2015, 02:34 AM'][quote name='4caster' post='716400' date='Feb 2 2015, 12:50 AM'][quote name='MDurkin' post='716366' date='Feb 1 2015, 04:48 AM'][quote name='4caster' post='716358' date='Jan 31 2015, 11:52 PM'][quote name='fib_1618' post='716344' date='Jan 31 2015, 05:31 PM'][quote name='csw2002' post='716339' date='Jan 31 2015, 02:01

As far as my being bullish or bearish, whatever the market tells me to be I follow its lead...I'm market neutral every single day.

Fib[/quote]
What a great statement. This is exactly why I'm a day trader and don't carry trades over night. This is why
yesterday I did 4 trades to the upside and 3 trades to the downside. As you know price is the ultimate
indicator.
[/quote]


What time frame are you trading?
[/quote]

Hi MDurkin, because I'm a day trader my time frame is 1 day. [/quote]

Thanks for the reply.When you draw the lines in a chart what time frame are you drawing them 1,5,10,15...minute?
[/quote]

I draw the trendlines on a 1 minute streaming chart and thus far today we've seen examples of the up and the down
wave patterns. At 9:32 AM the SPY pulled back a little bit and then rallied for a few minutes and started pulling back
again. At that point I drew a trendline down along the 2 tops and bought the Feb 13th 190 Puts @.53. Another
reason I bought the 190 Puts is that they closed yesterday @.75-81. So when the MM opened them @.51-.53
they were way out of sync. As the Spy fell this morning the counter rallies didn't break the downward sloping
trendline which told me to stay in the trade. At 10:06 AM the Spy broke the down wave by going flat so I sold
the Puts @.88. At 10:15 AM the Spy started to rally so I bought the Feb. 13th 203.5 Calls @.71. From 10:26 AM
until 10:33 AM the Spy pulled back a little bit and then put in a higher low than it did from 10:06 AM until
10:14 AM. I then drew an upward sloping trendline from the 10:14 AM bottom through the 10:33 AM bottom.
As the Spy rose this morning the subsequent pullbacks in the up wave did not break down below the trendline
which allowed me to stay in the trade. Then, from 11:38 AM until until 11:48 AM the Spy broke the up wave
by putting in a double top so I sold the Calls @1.20. And I see that while I've been typing this response to your
question I've missed a nice Put trade, but I can't type and trade at the same time.

[MDurkin]

[quote name='4caster' post='716441' date='Feb 2 2015, 12:21 PM'][quote name='MDurkin' post='716401' date='Feb 2 2015, 02:34 AM'][quote name='4caster' post='716400' date='Feb 2 2015, 12:50 AM'][quote name='MDurkin' post='716366' date='Feb 1 2015, 04:48 AM'][quote name='4caster' post='716358' date='Jan 31 2015, 11:52 PM'][quote name='fib_1618' post='716344' date='Jan 31 2015, 05:31 PM'][quote name='csw2002' post='716339' date='Jan 31 2015, 02:01

As far as my being bullish or bearish, whatever the market tells me to be I follow its lead...I'm market neutral every single day.

Fib[/quote]
What a great statement. This is exactly why I'm a day trader and don't carry trades over night. This is why
yesterday I did 4 trades to the upside and 3 trades to the downside. As you know price is the ultimate
indicator.
[/quote]


What time frame are you trading?
[/quote]

Hi MDurkin, because I'm a day trader my time frame is 1 day. [/quote]

Thanks for the reply.When you draw the lines in a chart what time frame are you drawing them 1,5,10,15...minute?
[/quote]

I draw the trendlines on a 1 minute streaming chart and thus far today we've seen examples of the up and the down
wave patterns. At 9:32 AM the SPY pulled back a little bit and then rallied for a few minutes and started pulling back
again. At that point I drew a trendline down along the 2 tops and bought the Feb 13th 190 Puts @.53. Another
reason I bought the 190 Puts is that they closed yesterday @.75-81. So when the MM opened them @.51-.53
they were way out of sync. As the Spy fell this morning the counter rallies didn't break the downward sloping
trendline which told me to stay in the trade. At 10:06 AM the Spy broke the down wave by going flat so I sold
the Puts @.88. At 10:15 AM the Spy started to rally so I bought the Feb. 13th 203.5 Calls @.71. From 10:26 AM
until 10:33 AM the Spy pulled back a little bit and then put in a higher low than it did from 10:06 AM until
10:14 AM. I then drew an upward sloping trendline from the 10:14 AM bottom through the 10:33 AM bottom.
As the Spy rose this morning the subsequent pullbacks in the up wave did not break down below the trendline
which allowed me to stay in the trade. Then, from 11:38 AM until until 11:48 AM the Spy broke the up wave
by putting in a double top so I sold the Calls @1.20. And I see that while I've been typing this response to your
question I've missed a nice Put trade, but I can't type and trade at the same time.
[/quote]

Thanks for the response.