To recap, I was bearish EOD Friday, Jan 23, and I posted to that effect. Few others were. Tuesday morning we are down -400. If that works for you, if you can handle that type of volatility within the context of an overall bull market, more power to you.
At the EOD, Thursday, Jan 29, I was very bearish again, because of heavy distribution throughout the day and at the close. Now, the hourly is still on a buy, but you assume that I will front run the hourly if I already have daily confirmation. I don't do this blindly -- I need to see some willingness to sell before I sell, but I am not gonna wait when I already have daily conformation.
After Friday, we get crash calls and bears growling and all sorts of rubbish. The thing is, few were ready to capitalize on the big bear moves last week Don't get me wrong, there were some big bull countermoves too, but lets be honest for the price/trend traders: you didn't catch them because they gapped up and ran after a big down day (Jan 29) and you were not set up for any kind of a hourly buy until probably toward the EOD, and if you did that, you got eviscerated the next day if you held. If you were bullish at all, you didn't catch the big down days either because they had to be front run with conviction/confirmation rather than traded off an hourly trend.
Now going back to this rubbish talk last Friday into Monday. Personally, I was still bearish. Monday up was normal and expected retract. Fine, I am hearing a little bull talk but here is what I'm thinking "Hourly a buy, I am still overall bearish, but have no confirmation. Just wait and see. I wonder if down last Friday, UP, UP. Tap, tap. I have see a lot of charts roll over hard after a two day fake out. So much room below us. But its gotta catch them off guard. This is a perfect way to do it. Tap Monday, Tap, Tuesday. Tuesday: we are running a a distribution rate very high all morning. This is just what I wanna see. I am gonna make oceans off this move. Gotta wait and see. Throw me that cheese, Meat! Reply on Fearless Forecasters "hey, nobody knows nothing about nothing except for me". Tap, tap. Tuesday afternoon: distribution is still high but declining every hour. Hourly on a buy. This sucks, because it means confusion on the thesis. Tuesday close: highs of the day, distribution lows of the day, hourly on buy, hourly is off the charts in fact, based on how I measure it. So still waiting. I want to see that hourly turn down hard now before anything because I no longer that that crutch of confirmation. Yesterday, selling was not impressive, didn't turn the hourly to a sell for me. Wait. Look at EOD charts, see simple trendlines. Could breakout or breakdown. And the folly of it is that how many times does this happen? Turns come down to a poker hand bluff. A 50/50 chance. Not for me. I don't like 50/50 chances. What did Livermore say? Something like a trader than thinks he knows a little TA and how to trade the market will merely lose all his money SLOWER. I don't like em without confirmation. I don't like em at inflection points. What cannot be brought down will go up and vice versa. Anyone who trades knows that.
Last week, no inflection points, 2 confirmations, 2 huge move days. This week, nothing. If you trade trend, there was a bull entry. My personal system on the hourly went to buy Monday afternoon. SEE: On a personal level, I was still kind of bearish. Had no confirmation of it, so that means no short. Very simple stuff. Had I been so inclined to have bullish bias/confirmation, I might taken the long. Hourly is still on long. What would it mean if something happened this afternoon and we closed down big? Nothing. What does it do to the hourly? Had no confirmation short. What if we gap bad on jobs # 2 morrow? Would this mean I was right for feeling bearish (but doing nothing) early this week? No, it wouldn't do anything. How will it change the hourly? Do I have a confirmation short.
Hourly buy link
So as traders we always must have a system to trust and keep an open mind. My opinion can change anytime. I have taken no trades this week. Yes. I have not traded. When you get those windfall confirmations (and believe me it could have went much lower last week), you take 'em bull or bear. Other than that you don't trade. It was the final tweek that I made to my trading a couple of years ago that brought me into consistency. If I see something real out there. I will post.
Good trading
Edited by viccarter, 05 February 2015 - 12:00 PM.
