58 replies to this topic

[tria]

The bad news first: Gold & Silver closed below the 1155.9--1162.9/GCZ & 15.595--15.695/SIZ levels that Hadik suggested would need to hold in order to keep the near term upside potential intact, and for the short term daily trends to remain positive. There are a few futures margin calls that need to be addressed today and/or on Monday or face forced liquidation. The good news: Yesterday was the first day for a while that saw more GLD Put than Call volume activity. My call for a rally before the close yesterday did not materialize but imo we may see one by midday today, albeit small. I wish the beginning of the month to find me only partially long, say 3/4ths and hence I may do some lite selling given the opportunity to act. -tria

[tria]

Silver if offered near $15.10 has a medium term potential of about $1.70 and say $0.30 risk. Gold if offered near $1,130 has a $90 potential and about $20 risk. -tria

[tria]

The upper side of the pennant was tested today. If a rebound comes it should start here and now. Ag is more stable relative to Au, a plus. I don't think 'they' wish GDX below $15.00 at the close. -tria

Edited by tria, 30 October 2015 - 11:25 AM.

[tria]

It doesn't look too good for the short term and possibly for the medium term as well.

Must take evasive action asap. Puts and/or outright shorts will be considered.
I will most likely bite the bullet and take a loss on my longs established late last week.

Russ may be proven correct calling for an early spring 2016 low in Gold.

http://marketvisions...pring-2016.html

-tria

[tria]

A clean pair of 5 waves each started on 9/11

Falling below the 9/24 high could spell trouble as it implies that we not in a 1-2-3-4-5? classic impulse but that we just finished an a-b-c correction higher last Wednesday, no 5th is forthcoming and possibly new lows will be seen instead.

The other possibility of a 1-2-i-ii count does not look good proportionally.

Possible neckline support of inverted H&S is near at 1.01

Testing of the high volume day bar of 9/21 on lesser volume, will be a plus.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p32739978974

-tria

[tria]

Today's weakness opens the door for a very possible 2-day rally. Margin call selling will have run their course by the close today. A small long trading position was just initiated at the lows so far with no stop and will double it near the close if still below $1,130.00 -tria

[tria]

Doubled down at $1,125.10 Will consider to add even more near the close or very early tomorrow morning. -tria

Edited by tria, 03 November 2015 - 09:42 AM.

[tria]

Added one more 1/4th long @ $1,115 as we are near the official comex close. Now 3/4ths long but only for a 2 day trade. Love to buy the hedgies stop losses. -tria

[tria]

Two hours before Ms Yellen's congressional testimony finds me 75% long Gold and 50% Silver as I just bought @ $15.27 and maybe 100% long if $15.17 is filled today. I know that all bullish technical patterns have broken down but this is a 2-day ST trade. Stops are in place any way. -tria

[tria]

It has been my experince that Grains, most often than not rise during election years and don't ask my why. Hadik expects them to bottom in late 2015 and to have problematic 2016 yields in various crops. Meteorogists speak of the strongest El Nino events on record. Expect the unexpected as see all kinds of extreme weather from Flooding in California to record warmth in the Midwest to a massive blizzard late winter in the East, they say. Silver is more sympathetic to Grain moves than Gold is and Iv'e heard a funny explanation of why. The OBV study suggests better Silver behaviour relative to Gold's for the time being. Bottom line, I think I'll concentrate more on Silver rather than on Gold from here on in ST/MT trading at least. -tria