58 replies to this topic

[tria]

Filled on Silver (SIZ15 @ $15.17) Yet again today good relative GDX action. Testing of the recently broken neckline of the reverse H&S pattern on lesser volume than when it broke it and moved higher. -tria

[tria]

At the recent highs the crowd was buying GLD-CALLS in spades. Last couple of days they decided they prefer to do the opposite and buy GLD-PUTS instead. Crowd psychology, the one and only constant in town one can depend on. -tria

[tria]

Yellen's & Co recent and constant yelling has had the same effect as if she has already raised them twice. If you cry Wolf! Wolf! Wolf! a few times, well when the real wolf apears I will not take you seriously. Fully discounted by then and buy the rumor sell the fact tactics will probably be in order. -tria

[tria]

RSI has not broken the support line joining the July and Sept RSI lows.
No alarm bells and no falling knives yet in this ratio chart that is my main concern and of interest.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p54172652709

-tria

[tria]

The jumpy silver-frog has been diving to the abbys for 6 days in a row.
'Lucky 7' today.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p73252136967
settings by Lee from the T-theory forum

If the frog decides to test the bottom red envelope line, I'll be waiting with a knife.

If the frog jumps to the sma-144 blue line, I'll sucrifice some to the market.

In between, probably staying put.

-tria

[tria]

Time to close my short Euro hedge against the long PMs position. Out of all Euro shorts @ $1,0710 It looks like I will not be able to buy another COLE HAAN pair of shoes this year with such a strong USD. I'll stick with Italian, FRATTELI-ROSSETTI. The remaining short GCZ 1,170 CALLS were also closed for a token ammount. Booked about $26.00 premium. -tria

Edited by tria, 06 November 2015 - 09:24 AM.

[tria]

Despite some interesting bullish observations as below, it is hard for me to suggest objectively anything else apart from a very short term rebound. I would like to see first what happens after the 11/11-11/16 period which could be another bearish period.

"Traders discount the future. Witness how gold stocks have bottomed as the first rate hike nears."
Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader Nov 6
https://pbs.twimg.co...z6EVEAA-FG3.png

"As we've mentioned over the years in previous notes, the silver gold ratio has also been an excellent leading indicator in the past for the broader health of the precious metals sector and inflation expectations, as silver acts as the higher beta asset more susceptible to risk aversion in disinflationary market environments, or conversely - exhibits greater returns in reflationary conditions. Although expectations of inflation have been clearly misplaced over the years, the signal line crossover now taking place in the ratio bodes well for the broader precious metals sector heading into 2016, as well as other assets closely tied to rising inflation expectations such as oil."
Market Anthropology
http://4.bp.blogspot...mFM/s640/10.png

Some interesting ratio charts.
http://stockcharts.c...id=p37885801424

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p66822950483

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p68603694062

http://stockcharts.c...id=p82750021444

The last chart suggests to me to use TBT as a hedge to my long PM position now that I have closed the short Euro hedge.

-tria

[tria]

A rebound today followed by some weakness for the rest of the week, is the most probable scenario. -tria

[tria]

The current hypothesis is that Gold is in an ending diagonal structure. All it has to do to prove this true, is to just rise a bit and then to fall to about $1,035+/-5 A final 5th down-leg within the diagonal from March 2015, and each leg down comprising of 3 smaller waves can thus be counted and this new Gold low will be unconfirmed by GDX not making one (new low). I am sure many will be shouting for Gold to drop below the $1,000 round figure at that time. Perhaps all this by Friday or is too simplistic?? -tria

Edited by tria, 10 November 2015 - 08:31 AM.

[tria]

The current hypothesis is that Gold is in an ending diagonal structure.
All it has to do to prove this true, is to just rise a bit and then to fall to about $1,035+/-5
A final 5th down-leg within the diagonal from March 2015, and each leg down comprising of 3 smaller waves can thus be counted and this new Gold low will be unconfirmed by GDX not making one (new low).
I am sure many will be shouting for Gold to drop below the $1,000 round figure at that time.
Perhaps all this by Friday or is too simplistic??

-tria

Correction:
"within the diagonal from March 2014......, obviously.