2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

In my post earlier this week I noted a "niggling" risk cycle turn which will occur this coming Tuesday November 17 and speculated that it would probably only be a hump in the road leading to the next turn or acceleration risk window next Thursday and Friday. Well, based on the black swan that landed on the Eiffel Tower Friday I wish to revise that hump in the road to maybe a rocky mountain in the road. To me, Friday potentially is a game changer if now there's risk that the middle east wars can to be taken to the west on a larger scale. Risk may have taken a step change up. Of course I'm sure bright and early Monday morning the central banks of the world will step in to flood the system with liquidity, and the US open mouth committee members will spew dovish statements to try to stem the tide. It will be interesting to see which force prevails, the FED or the risk of a new reality. Regards, Douglas

[dasein]

I really do not understand what is so different about the Paris attacks? more brazen - perhaps, more of them coordinated - yes, but different in nature or different in purpose from the attacks that have been going on for at least 15 years? I dont think so. can you explain why they are different and suddenly signify the "West" is newly at risk? we have had a pretty big 3 day selloff with the 50 day right below inter alia, so it is time for a normal relief bounce - the bloodshed may give the market a reason for that relief to enter. thanks

[Douglas]

I really do not understand what is so different about the Paris attacks? more brazen - perhaps, more of them coordinated - yes, but different in nature or different in purpose from the attacks that have been going on for at least 15 years? I dont think so. can you explain why they are different and suddenly signify the "West" is newly at risk?

we have had a pretty big 3 day selloff with the 50 day right below inter alia, so it is time for a normal relief bounce - the bloodshed may give the market a reason for that relief to enter.

thanks

That's the reason I said "if". The scale and complexity of this appeared to indicate organization. If they were just an isolated cell and there is no follow-up attack, you are right, and the news media will quickly jump back to the latest Kardasian thing. The world seems to have a pretty short attention span for one off disasters.

Regards,
Douglas