Robert McHugh ArticleGold is struggling against what is looking more and more like a losing battle. Gold is real money, but I'm rooting for it to blast higher because if Gold is rising, then deflation is not in control of our economy, rather inflation is. Believe me, inflation is the far lesser of those two evils. Deflation will lead to economic Depression, al la the 1930s, especially in the Debt-Bubble infested USA of 2004. This chart is flat-out forecasting deflation to come upon the scene - and soon. Oh, we may not get the economic numbers that reveal deflation - that would be too fearful an admission - but what we will get that won't hide the truth is declining markets, falling prices in real estate, stocks, and bonds.
The chart. Gold is drifting toward the lower boundary of its long-term rising trend-channel (green). It remains inside the channel - that's good. However, there are two Bearish price patterns in play, one fully developed, the Double Top, and one that will complete with a break below the lower boundary of the long-term trend-channel, a Head & Shoulders Top (orange). Gold moved sharply lower this week, hitting the lower boundary of a smaller upward sloping trend-channel (magenta) on Thursday. A break below 394 is Bearish. A break below 387 is very Bearish. The 50 Day moving average remains 6.25 points below its 200 day moving average, and has converged with the lower boundary of the magenta short-term upward trend-channel. The RSI Indicator is neutral with plenty of room to fall. The MACD is breaking down hard. Momentum is down. If you are keeping the Elliott Wave count at home, we have seen a wave 1 down from the April 433 top to the May 370 low, then a wave 2 up that closed at 411 in early July. It looks like wave 3 down may be underway. Gold sees Deflation.
