The most recent risk window which closed yesterday, given the turmoil in China and the futures action this morning, appears to be an acceleration event, not a turn.
The next turn or acceleration risk window contains a cloud of nine risk cycle turns smeared across the whole of next week. What may be occurring is two close by risk windows which are running together, one early in the week over say Tuesday and Wednesday the 12th and 13th closely followed by another one on Friday the 15th. In other words a whipsaw buzz saw.
If the whipsaw consolidation has given way to a down trend, I still think 12,000 DJIA is a nice target for the first major move in a bear market, and it has a shot at getting there pronto, maybe even by February 1st (if the FED plays nice with the bear).
The FED driven bubble alluded to yesterday by Fisher may again be saved by further intervention, and just maybe buy-the-dip has one last hurrah left in it. If the market is force-fed the blue pill instead of the red pill by the FED, we may not yet get to see just how deep this rabbit hole goes. You'll just awake thinking it was all just some sort of terrible dream.
Regards,
Douglas
