22 replies to this topic

[kinga200]

Semi. 3 weeks and no price change. Yet look at the increase in bearish money flow. Patience....

And that is back and filling.  And I think we are in a bear market, the beginning of a large one, and after back n fill you have continuation of the down trend.  In a bear market that is.

[pdx5]

I see 1680 first.   This country from president to FED, all wants the OIL companies to go bankruptcy and Banks to go with them.

This OIL downdraft has been started from  when Obama visited Saudi Arabia. They want to win the republic in election. Demo wants all oil-ers and bank-ers go turn eyes into all white.

 

Cheers!!!

Can someone please translate this into English? I think he makes good points, but needs to be made clear,

so even I can understand it.

[qqqqtrdr]

More money is being pulled off the table....   PE of SPX is still above 20 and is overbought.   Technology PE has dropped to 23 from 30, so is currently looking like the best bet for upside...    The market needs to wash out before we create a bottom...   This hasn't happened yet... 

 

Barry

[Ticker]

The trend is your friend. The trend is still clearly down. Fight the trend at your own peril. Good luck with picking bottoms. Much easier to short rallies. 1680 to 1700 sounds like a decent intermediate term bottom.

Edited by Ticker, 10 February 2016 - 07:30 PM.

[CLK]

I'm looking for 1960-1980 ES starting soon, probably next week after some more weakness into Friday.

Either that, or sideways for a few more weeks.

[csw2002]

I'm looking for 1960-1980 ES starting soon, probably next week after some more weakness into Friday.

Either that, or sideways for a few more weeks.

Wow, you are bullish. Nothing so far in this market indicates a bottom to me. We don't have panic in the way of high Trin, high Vix or high volume. Why are you looking for longs here to 1960 - 1980? Care to share your reasoning? Thanks

[CLK]

Simple old daily MACD. Either it works off sideways for a few weeks or we see my target.

[CRUISENAL]

Well, things may have changed today. I was expecting that area by the last week of this month. If we go down now to test 1800, then all bets are off for 1935-1940 and might never get there. We should have got a retracement started by now. Usually when the market wants to go lower it signals by setting a slightly lower low than the most recent low, then reverses and retraces 50% to 61.8% and then heads allot lower. My best guess is we set the lower low at at least 1800 or lower and off that low do the retracement. But that is all it should be, then plunge way below 1800. It appears we are now in the early phase of the decline. But we are just getting started, not near a true bottom.

My guess is they close higher that currently at 1867. Then run it tomorrow near 1890, then a sharp pullback followed by a rally to 1935-1940. That should end this move, But then I think 1800 or slightly less to shake out the Bulls and then reverse up in a 8 week rally.

 
 
When do you anticipate 1935-1940 levels will be reached time wise?  TIA

[dougie]

maybe the 1% are sellling now while they can be afore they feel the BERN

[risk_management]

Well, things may have changed today. I was expecting that area by the last week of this month. If we go down now to test 1800, then all bets are off for 1935-1940 and might never get there. We should have got a retracement started by now. Usually when the market wants to go lower it signals by setting a slightly lower low than the most recent low, then reverses and retraces 50% to 61.8% and then heads allot lower. My best guess is we set the lower low at at least 1800 or lower and off that low do the retracement. But that is all it should be, then plunge way below 1800. It appears we are now in the early phase of the decline. But we are just getting started, not near a true bottom.

 

 

My guess is they close higher that currently at 1867. Then run it tomorrow near 1890, then a sharp pullback followed by a rally to 1935-1940. That should end this move, But then I think 1800 or slightly less to shake out the Bulls and then reverse up in a 8 week rally.

 
 
When do you anticipate 1935-1940 levels will be reached time wise?  TIA

 

 

 

Thank you Sir.

 

I see polls are heavily tilted to the short side tonight.  I on the other hand think that one should be very cautious tomorrow morning.  It appears we'll gap down and if it's accompanied with breadth that is not that bad (~-1000), this could very well be a set up for a buy. I actually already have a buy at the close on hourly charts but I don't trust these when daily context is this bad. 

 

 

Anyway, if this fails, it's just not looking pretty.  Overall pattern is bad and breadth context even worse. 

Edited by risk_management, 10 February 2016 - 11:46 PM.