Well, the 22nd February turn identified by the system appears to have been the zenith within a small correction within a larger uptrend. Unfortunately pretty worthless. As I've noted in a previous post, the next risk window appears to be next Tuesday or Wednesday the 1st and 2nd of March. If this is still a bear market, it might mark the end of this upward correction, but I have no way of knowing that in advance.
Without a black swan, we appear to be stuck in a series of Teddy Bear Market swings, limited on the downside by the siren call of dividends in the age of zero or lower real yield on notes and bonds and limited on the upside by the lousy economy and the circus of clowns in charge. The August 2015 and the January-February 2016 sell offs may just be the new normal Teddy bear market in this new age of low growth, infinite liquidity and negative interest rates. Dividend paying stocks look awfully attractive regardless of P/E compared to the negative real returns available on debt paper.
Until the arrival of the consensus crystalizing effect of a serious black swan event, this very wide range bound Teddy Bear market torturing both bulls and bears may be our lot in life. The trend is taking a holiday.
Regards,
Douglas
