50 replies to this topic

[tria]

My data indicates now that Gold should fall in thr ST/MT and it may fall quite a bit.

This what the odds favour now, a rather big drop but time will tell how big.

I wish to see first where Gold sits on about the 24th of March +/-1td.

All of my small ST bullish options bets will be closed as early as possible this week and will

probably be replaced by bearish positions.

 

BTW, I was not impressed at all by the very small COT improvement and the O.I. behaviour

despite the $60.00 price drop from Friday the 11th to Tuesday the 15th of March.

The small Gold Backwardation discussed in the past, has practically disappeared as well.

 

Please DYODD as I do not wish my opinion to influence your actions/inactions.

Edited by tria, 20 March 2016 - 10:12 AM.

[dougie]

interesting; i agree but only a gut  feeling and buyers remorse for being hedged?

what are you using to see this?

[cafeflorida]

If the methodology behind the opinion was described with some clarity, it would be better received.

[johngeorge]

"My data indicates now that Gold should fall in thr ST/MT and it may fall quite a bit.

This what the odds favour now, a rather big drop but time will tell how big.

I wish to see first where Gold sits on about the 24th of March +/-1td.

All of my small ST bullish options bets will be closed as early as possible this week and will

probably be replaced by bearish positions.

 

BTW, I was not impressed at all by the very small COT improvement and the O.I. behaviour

despite the $60.00 price drop from Friday the 11th to Tuesday the 15th of March.

The small Gold Backwardation discussed in the past, has practically disappeared as well.

 

Please DYODD as I do not wish my opinion to influence your actions/inactions."

 

Thanks tria

 

When such a gracious, talented trader, such as yourself, expresses their opinion on this board I am very appreciative.  As far as I am concerned how you reach your opinion is none of my business. You have remarkably accurate analysis, shown by many timely posted positions and trades, giving all the benefit of your insights and hard work.  I could not expect any more. 

 

Best to you.     

[tria]

interesting; i agree but only a gut  feeling and buyers remorse for being hedged?

what are you using to see this?

 

I have posted many times in the past here and in the T-Theory Forum of how I formulate an opinion

and this will be the last.

It is a mental process that takes many big and small small details into account and it takes time.

Common sense/logic, behaviourism, human intelligence, game theory, reductio ad absurdum, plus all

the technical studies that work no matter if it is bull/baby bull or a bear/baby bear.

When the scale tips more than a little to one side, I make a strong statement like this week's or last December's one,

to 'buy Gold be4 it was 2 late'.

 

Sorry is I failed to enlighten you more but trading is not a science but an art really.

 

-tria

[tria]

For the nimblest of the nimble traders only :

Monday's early weakness could be bought but Tuesdays late strength should be sold imo.

Expecting an initial only low on mid Wednesday or late on late Thursday.

Preliminary indications for next week is that one may wish to forget if in the ST/MT bull camp.

Edited by tria, 21 March 2016 - 04:23 AM.

[tria]

If the methodology behind the opinion was described with some clarity, it would be better received.

 

Thank you for your comment Cafefrorida and very sorry for my opacity.

[tria]

JohnGeorge, very happy to be of some help/value to you since this is what I was trying to achieve

with my numerous posts in the past.

[drt4nrg]

Hi. I'm new to this board but have been reading some previous posts

to get a feel for sentiment and expectations.  Thanks for sharing your thoughts/results of your analysis.  I am not familiar with T-theory but am interested in learning more!

 

Thanks,

-Tim

[tria]

So far so good.

 

Took the opportunity offered to the nimble of the nimblest traders and sold what was bought on Monday's weakness.

 

Today's strength was expected as per my post above, but the tragic Brussels reason was not obviously.

 

My bullish Gold options from last Friday were unwound at cost as well and some short exposure was initiated near $1,260.

 

Another tragic day for the EU,

-tria