49 replies to this topic

[dharma]

out here on  a ledge talking to myself

well dharma , the bond market bottomed in 81 and has been in a topping process. the bond bull spans 35 years.  there are mountains of debt which cannot be paid off and the payout is exactly zirp!  how is that for risk on.  when the bond market makes the turn , watch out

miners are leading and after an 85% drop they have a long ways to go. i continue nibble. i procrastinated on aau they had a major find.

i had bought midas gold @.29-.3 and finished up there.  

i believe that stagflation is going to reemerge in the system and its not going to take long either.  it looks to me like oil bottomed and other major commodities are in the process.  china will continue to build out its infrastructure. using alot of copper. they are also doing a major solar buildout , the conductor there is silver.  silver will catch its mojo later in the game. and the reason i am not a fan is when it tops the door will not be wide enough. 

1. in my notes ,done @ the turn of the century i thought the dollar would be the last fiat to go. it is acting toppy , but i am not sure it swans  here. 
2.    dharma

[johngeorge]

dharma

 

There are some folks listening here.    Great trade on Midas The bond market......a truly awesome run. I don't have a clue when it will top, but, as you say, watch out!  I have long US treasury's and long muni's in my portfolio and have been paying closer attention to them as of late. When they crash I suspect there will be h*** to pay in nearly all markets.    

 

Nice bounce in gold today with miners moving up as one would think in this rally.  I found a fly in the ointment with this PDF chart showing gold is bearish with a downside target of 1134.  Be that as it may I am still looking for gold to run up to ~1300 before this rally is finished.

[dharma]

ok then the sentiment figures remain where they were.  slowly , the world is heading for a train wreck. and the gold gurus who missed the rally  are patiently waiting for this thing to come back to them. gld holding 820tonnes. a slow steady build =bullish.  my feeling is the shorts are about to get hammered and those looking for less than 1k  are going to chase.  get ready for volatility to be kicked up a notch. the shorts continue to press. 

well if hadik didnt welcome you , i will welcome to the golden year

dharma

what about those italian banks? arent those guys descendants of the Medici?

Edited by dharma, 07 April 2016 - 02:05 PM.

[dharma]

one last food for  thought for the day:

1932 saw the broad market down 90%from the highs

2015 saw the miners down 85% from their highs

rivaling prices seen in 99-01 when gold was 300

the miners have alot of catching up to do just to get 

to 1240 gold

and along the way if you listen to those interviews @ the denver gold forum they

have substantially cut costs and gotten lean .

dharma

what if the yen continues to rise. and the japanese who have been huge savers repatriate their funds. 

[dharma]

well the dollar continues to slide against the yen. will this cause the japanese to repatriate money???  gold is firm w/the yen/dollar skying. the miners @generational lows continue to giddyap.  i read the gurus and they seem universally lined up waiting for below 1050 or waiting for the correction. of course currie of gs continues to pound the table on sub 1k gold .  yet, he expects oil to bottom later this year. value investors have stepped into the gold market and they have been/are accumulating , unless something gets hit , i am just holding . i dont know when the breakout occurs for the metal , but the miners lead and they are pressing the highs today.   

gold has the wind at its back

dhrma

[dharma]

well gdx/gdxj just made new highs for the year today. giving an indication that buillion prices will follow

sentiment

HGNSI was unchanged at 20%

. MarketVane’s bullish consensus rose 2 points to 52%

DSI rose 6 points to 50%.

sorry folks these #sdont reflect ebullience in the gold market

i have been and still are looking @ april as a pivot.

 

dharma

gentlemen start your engines

[dharma]

the mining index has broken out of its pennant. there will be big corrections no doubt.   the money comes from riding the trend.  which is so easy to say. the mind creates all kinds of situations that make it seem wise  to head for the door and buy back cheaper. which is also easy to say , but not easy to do. in the last bull every time i sold in late 79 , i bought back at a higher price. now granted, i was a newbie. but it taught me ,  surprises occur, and they are always upside surprises. corrections come and they can be quite convincing and scary.  

how many gurus bought @ 1045 buy zone? how many bought into the 1229 breakout? my guess is most will buy when the highs are crossed   its the nature of the beast.  

my worry is we are heading into correction time of year for the broad market, i suspect we are going to have a 20%+ correction there over the next 6 months. my experience is if there , and its a big if, that sucking sound brings everything w/it/ my work shows a rise in april till june. and i expect some important resistance points. get taken out. 

i had sold clgrf , when it got taken out and redeployed the funds into a few r rule ideas.  one of which is a fav of mine and i followed it since 2k

holding in a bull is not easy .  there are lots of reasons to sell along the way which i plan to do.  right now miners are still @ generational lows, which i dont plan to micro manage. the miners were under accumulation/are under accumulation. they have gone from weak hand speculators to strong hand value investors.  

the gurus point to the cots. ok the banksters are the sharks. but in a bull the parameters of their short positions change size.  they will be carrying much larger shorts.  there were years starting in 04 where the commercials held huge shorts and it didnt bite for a couple of years.currie is going around saying rate hikes  are bearish for gold. at times they may be . but my experience has shown me that more often than not the price of gold rises as a result . the december hike fit into that script well

dharma

here is turk interviewing casey

[johngeorge]

Thanks for posting that interview with Doug Casey.  I thoroughly enjoyed it as I have past interviews of Doug for many years.  Don't always agree with him, but, do want to hear his thoughts.  An extremely creative mind and the best bargain hunter I know of.

 

 

[johngeorge]

Interview with Rick Rule April 10, 2016:

There Will Be Huge Surprises In The Silver Market

[dharma]

17 week cycle in bottoming mode mid month

1261 is the resistance in my work

gold has painted inverse h&s pattern on the chart , working on the rt shoulder

miners were under accumulation flying the last 3 days

sge begins trading gold in 8 days, denominated in yuan

obama wants to meet w/yellen today

abe and kuroda call for meeting of boj april 28

http://blogs.barrons...licopter-money/

take a look at a chart of any of the mining indexes they have barely starting to turn up and folks/gurus have been top calling it  for weeks now

cot parameters change in bull markets. commercials are always short, on few rare occasions are they long. i expect w/increasing volume coming into the gold market , the commercials will be carrying much larger short positions in 04  it took a couple of years for those short positions to bite into the market and it came from much higher levels

i am not sure that we bottomed for wave 2 in april.  but i do think if it has not happened it will.   and the market rises into june. 

steady as she goes. 

dharma

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

kuroda and abe call for meeting of the boj april 26