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Posted 19 July 2016 - 12:34 AM
dharma
"although i am expecting higher prices i am on high alert."
I know the feeling. Am getting a bit nervous here as I have had a short term sell on the $BPGDM and gold. If I had to draw a line in the sand for gold it would be ~ 1295. I remain bullish here sitting tight and not selling, but, with an eye to the exits. Will see.
Member
Posted 19 July 2016 - 10:00 AM
the commercials are pressing the market w/their largest short position ever in silver and gold is not far behind
there is an inverse h&s pattern on the gold chart, so far the decline has come back to the neckline. the pattern on the decline has become a wedge at this point. the patterns look bullish. and constructive. so far the market is holding in the 1325 support area . w/1308 and 1306 below.
july tends to be a dull month w/ lows for the year being made on the seasonal charts. this seasonal chart of futures is a little different http://seasonalchart...talle_gold.htmlthis shows the lows in early august.
there are other factors that i am watching to indicate when a larger correction will take place. so far those are not indicating that.
bernack flew to japan to try to convince abe/kuroda to issue perpetual bonds. perp bonds have 0interest and no expiration date. the boj can buy these giving govt money to create inflation. at no cost. except of course to the citizens who will watch their pp go down the drain. but this seems to be the next step in the game. since they are perpetual they never have to be paid back. voila magic
my feeling is most in the gold community missed the move. armstrong was a force until the direction changed. the chant was one more down below 1k . so those folks have missed the move. and 5yrs of down market has encouraged folks to take profits quickly. i dont think the market has the kind of leverage it had in past years. the market needs a catalyst. otherwise we will be stuck here. in a tight range.
the board is dead a hand full of posts daily
dharma
Member
Posted 19 July 2016 - 02:07 PM
correction continuing . watching . so far my parameters are in tact so is support
gann guy
http://www.ganngloba...ld-VideoPt1.php
dharma
Member
Posted 19 July 2016 - 03:34 PM
Summer doldrums, backing and filling, boring, catalyst needed = dull. So: "Never short a dull market" I believe we are in a bull market so any surprises will be on the upside. Of course that doesn't mean I don't think of the downside risk. Watchful waiting can be somewhat stressful. 
From Stewart Thomson July 19, 2016
snip> "Perp Bond Thunder” is the new gold price driver in play, and it has the potential to influence major markets for many years into the future." <snip
snip> "For gold stock investors, happy times are not just here, but here to stay!" <snip
Member
Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:45 AM
so far today , my parameters are broken intra day . if so i will scale back later today. yesterday the gdxj did so as well , but on light volume.
so, watching , and will scale back , should the market indicate more correction in store
other wise. i will sit pat
dharma
Member
Posted 20 July 2016 - 10:14 AM
Member
Posted 20 July 2016 - 12:26 PM
I burned the midnight oil all last night and decided to sell this morning. Sold two miners, but, bought a position in an explorer I like. I still am holding long a number of miners, small producers, so am about 65% long in my miners portfolio.
Member
Posted 20 July 2016 - 01:33 PM
i did do some selling this am, now i am watching . while gold took out the 1325 support the main support lies at 1306-1308 range. so , i am watching to see if those levels break , which will indicate a full correction. initially gold gave ground , but nothing since.
we will see if the tide has changed
dharma
Member
Posted 21 July 2016 - 09:04 AM
after studying the charts, i have come to the conclusion that this correction is very close to over if not over. i would like to see divergences from oversold develop to present a low risk buy opportunity. i am still looking for a mid august high
more later time permitting
now listen to his reasoning. this was the start of the problems
dharma
Member
Posted 21 July 2016 - 11:31 AM
ecb-draghi left rates unchanged= negative rates . german bonds are yielding negative rates.
fed leaves rates alone, and gives the usual language, gold could fly
above the 1325 resistance
dharma
