Member
Posted 31 July 2016 - 11:07 AM
after the 2nd till the 9th it could be tricky, but then i see more upside. my main concern is a crash in the broad market.
which would create another major buying opportunity. the key remains the long side of the market. sure there will be scary shakeouts.
but the world remains awash in debt, that can never be repaid. . also the fact remains gold is a scarce resource and its production may very
well have peaked. having top notch miners will be rewarded.
dharma
Member
Posted 01 August 2016 - 09:47 AM
most have missed this leg from the december lows. then due to 5 yrs of bull beatings. w/high commercial short positions most followed maude to the sidelines or short - the truth is oi has been expanding as the bull has gained steam, so the commercial short positions as a % of oi has not expanded much
in 08 gold was 1k the gdx was 54 . today gold is at 1350 and gdx is 30 so while the miners have gained roughly 175% relatively speaking the miners are cheap. at some point the miners will race. sure i expect big corrections 25-30% or more but the upside gains should still be mind boggling
sitting and waiting.
dharma
Member
Posted 01 August 2016 - 10:00 AM
most have missed this leg from the december lows. then due to 5 yrs of bull beatings. w/high commercial short positions most followed maude to the sidelines or short - the truth is oi has been expanding as the bull has gained steam, so the commercial short positions as a % of oi has not expanded much
in 08 gold was 1k the gdx was 54 . today gold is at 1350 and gdx is 30 so while the miners have gained roughly 175% relatively speaking the miners are cheap. at some point the miners will race. sure i expect big corrections 25-30% or more but the upside gains should still be mind boggling
sitting and waiting.
dharma
Yep. Sit tight and be right, Dharma. Buy every big pullback. Let 'em run.
Member
Posted 01 August 2016 - 02:47 PM
i had been accumulating this one . now sprott has seen the value and they jumped on board.
https://ca.finance.y...-113000287.html
not investment advice just reporting the news
dharma
Member
Posted 02 August 2016 - 11:30 AM
byron wien-most of the strength in financial markets since the end of the recession in 2009 has been related to monetary expansion of the federal reserve. the balance sheet of the fed has expanded from 1trillion in 2008 to 4.5 trillion today and, in my opinion,3/4 of that increase has gone into financial assets, keeping interest rates low and expanding equity valuations. he is vice chairman of blackstone advisory partners. aug1 2016
wien believes 75%of feds balance sheet has been to support financial assets
i think this is a huge warning on the stock market!
gdx/gdxj made new recovery highs today. =green light for higher prices. miners have been giving it back from the open. jobs #s out friday, market has a tendency to fall into the jobs #s and rise afterward
dharma
Member
Posted 02 August 2016 - 01:57 PM
the reason i posted the wien piece is i believe the broad market has a big give up in the next 3 months. fwiw, in my experience when that occurs everything is sucked down w/it. which i believe will set up an incredible buying opportunity in the miners. so , i think we make new highs in the metal between now and mid month w/the miners too. then watch out. be weary.
mars had been in scorpio for months now=gold bullish it left scorpio today
heliocentric mercury goes into sagg starting the 9, and i think this will give gold the added thrust to new highs. helio merc only lasts about 10days, and its energy may not be enough to last the whole time. while gold remains firm the miners have given back at least 1/2 this while the stock market is down an insignificant amount.
i am firmly in the stagflation camp
dharma
Member
Posted 03 August 2016 - 01:33 PM
the 5th is the bradley and the jobs report, i look for the market to pullback, as usual, into the jobs # then to race out of it
dharma
i see the bond king , bill gross in his latest newsletter is recommending gold.
Edited by dharma, 03 August 2016 - 01:34 PM.
Member
Posted 03 August 2016 - 06:19 PM
From the Main Forum: Avi has been nailing it. What do you all think of his counts?
http://www.traders-t...rt/#entry750192
Member
Posted 04 August 2016 - 10:20 AM
well bill gross has now become a gold bull
here we are approaching the top and the board has become lively w/folks trying to pin point the exact top
where were all these folks in december/jan when the market was begging to be bought???
i think we are close to the top , and i will let the market stop me out of some positions.
but, for now i am riding. i see more and more big time institutional money managers jumping on board
it is a bull market and the money is made on the long side. lets see how many are buying when the lows come
will it be that easy? it certainly wasnt in dec/jan there was armstrong screaming for below 1k dow 43k and the dollar into the stratosphere
so far marty is wearing egg on all his calls
dharma
i know i havent been showing the sentiment #s but the hgnsi @39.3% is not an ebullient market. there still could be some upside surprises. like tomorrow when the jobs report is bullish gold the fed is not going to be able to raise the economy is far too weak
Edited by dharma, 04 August 2016 - 10:30 AM.
