23 replies to this topic

[tradesurfer]

well guys, I have to say that the US dollar index uptrend looks very powerful, and on the contrary the EURO looks extremely weak.

 

It looks like Euro wants to make a straight line move to .85

 

if that happens then the US dollar index would be near 115 to 118 ???

 

What on earth is gold going to be priced at under such a scenario ???  The US dollar back to the 2001 highs ?

 

I am sort of a permabull on gold but after reviewing the quarterly charts for the above 2 currencies I have to admit it really makes me question the whole gold bull thesis.

[johngeorge]

tradesurfer

 

Very timely.  Dollar up and gold down this am. 

[Smithy]

There is no doubt in my mind the gold bull is in jeopardy. Loosely speaking around $1180-1200  is my line in the sand.

The first bad sign would be a couple of closes below $1220.

[senorBS]

IMO this is either a marginal 3rd drive to a final top (Mar 2015 at 100.37, Dec at 100.49) in the dollar index (so far 100.57) and its a big time top or it extends a lot higher. No telling which scenario wins at this point

 

BSing away

 

Senor

[dharma]

now , what i am going to say i have to preface w/this 74-76 is before my time as a trader.
from 75 -76 the gold price got cut in 1/2 i have no idea what happened to miners during this time.
there are times when gold goes up w/ the dollar . what i think you are seeing is a run from one fiat to the other
w/the dollar perceived as having the strongest fundamentals. i believe this is a wave 2 which has a purpose of making one
question the validity of the 1st wave up. after 5 yrs of a down gold market 7 months of a bull seems too short. i am playing
this keeping the big picture in mind. 40yrs ago the market bottomed in 76 much like in 16 so far the fractal has been very uncanny
even on a day to day basis. for now i am in the bull camp.if important support is breached i will have to reassess i am constantly
reassessing and drawing on experience. i have been holding off buying , even though the hourly divergences from oversold were
very tempting. i thought being this oversold the market should have daily divergences and that is where i sit. waiting for 5 of c of 2
everyone has to be comfortable otherwise hasty mistakes are made. if you playing large stakes and your sleep is disturbed then its
time to cut back on positions. there will be plenty of opportunities to get on board. you may have to pay up , but later paying up
may look cheap.
folks are fleeing to the dollar , the rest of the colored papers look to be in bad shape. the dollar is in bad shape too, but
its being propped up by folks running to the dollar. stocks are near forever highs. at times the market focus is on different
things for now that mountain of debt in the corner is not being addressed. 0interest rates are forever being told we are at the
precipice of raising rates. the market is buying it. just like until the last minute the market thought hillary was madam president
and the brits were not going to exit. there is still strong belief.
everyone does what they think they have to do. then wave 3 comes along . and everyone nods together and says yup this is going
higher. just imagine how in 76 after a 50% haircut what the psychology was like. that inflation was the result of guns and
butter. well this time we have guns and butter and the expansion of govt. young folks are in debt for their education w/no jobs.
its not the older generations that cause change
anyway be comfortable. this is not an easy biz. every nickel is fought for and earned. until the run which i think is a couple
years off
dharma
just my 2c

Edited by dharma, 17 November 2016 - 12:15 PM.

[SilentOne]

My long term view on the USD Dollar.

 

I have been a USD bull since the 2011 top in gold/silver. However, time seems to be running out for the DXY. The dollar index is up 8.5 years now from the 2008 low. Granted this is the longest dollar rally versus the 80s (~6.5 yrs) and 90s (~8yrs). There are some very large cycles at play here so I will not be betting against them. Namely the 8 and 16 year cycles.

The question is whether this pattern which started from early 2015 is a consolidation (pause zone - Hurst), or a topping pattern (eg. triple top). I don't have any evidence as to which way it goes other than cycles say time is running out. The other thing I would suggest is that it would be odd to have a pause zone form here, precisely where an 8 and 16 year cycle high should arrive for the USD. I could go on from a cycles point of view, but I think I have expressed my views fairly clearly earlier in this thread (see link).

From a purely technical point of view, the DXY index tested the 100 level in early 2015 on high volume. This is the third test now on lower volume with weakening internals. The month is not over so TWT.

cheers,
john

PS The cycle bubbles drawn are 7.66 years each top to top, and the next cycle up is 15.3 years. We are in the time band for the 16 year cycle to turn (ie. top).

 

http://forum.hurstcy...m-cycles/205/50

 

Edited by SilentOne, 17 November 2016 - 06:31 PM.

[johngeorge]

Thanks John

 

Your insights are always valued.  The dollar generally creates very strong headwinds for precious metals which makes your analysis all the more important.  Thank you for sharing your excellent work. 

[Russ]

John,  Martin Armstrong has been saying for year that the dollar is going to go up because countries holding US Dollar loans will be forced to cover as it keeps moving up. Now that Mr. Trump wants to lower capital gains taxes has the potential to bring 3 Trillion dollars back to the US, this would cause the dollar to surge big time. In the meantime my signal for a Gold bottom is hitting most likely this coming week or next week.

 

Russ

[tradesurfer]

Well again, the bottom line is that I want to know if the bull market in gold that started in 2001 is still dead or alive.

 

So far it is still alive but the various scenarios that take place in next year will determine with more certainty.

 

On the quarterly price bar chart we could be forming a massive inverse had and shoulders pattern.  Time symmetry would then suggest another 9 to 12 months before upside breakout.

 

If we break below 1200 then it puts 1040 in the cards which MUST hold (although it could be slightly violated.

 

If you are a major gold bull, it seems like the trade of a lifetime is a buy near the 1040 zone which should result in a massive swing back to 1300.

 

I want to know if this gold bull is still alive or dead as I said before ! 

 

The prospect of the Euro plunging to .80 and the US dollar back at the 2001 highs is not promising for gold.

 

Europe is a total disaster and mess and is a massive tectonic shift that should see the Euro continue to plunge.  So capital will flee europe and go to USA and support the dollar.

[SilentOne]

Hey Russ,

 

Armie? I'm not much of  fan. Did he call the gold leg up this year? Hmm I doubt he did. Please let me know what other good calls he has made of late. I am all ears. He's very good about posting something after it happens ...

 

cheers,

john