Another 15 min. sell close, maybe more acceleration this time since IWM is testing broken support.
My trading plan right now
Started by
lawdog
, Jan 15 2017 09:33 AM
711 replies to this topic
#512
lawdog
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Posted 04 April 2017 - 04:42 PM
held at 60% short at close; went from 50% to 60% earlier today. in weeks past the bulls would have owned today. the easy money has been made, at least on the upside.
#513
CLK
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Posted 04 April 2017 - 06:51 PM
There is no safe money to be made in more than a 15 minute time frame in this market. Only way to do
that is with a very large cash/option position or futures, trading for 3-5 points. Looking for 10-20 points
trading more than a 5 minute chart will lose all your money, just too many direction changes intraday
to try and hang on for a few days and when there is low fractional moves on a daily basis time value
erodes too much.
#514
lawdog
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Posted 04 April 2017 - 09:35 PM
i gave up on options 20 years ago.
the ff'er poll is leaning strongly to the bearish side. let's see if we can get some downward action rolling now. the market the past 5 months has rallied with such oversold conditions; can't do it any more. i think people will want to get some risk off trades soon, which could cause a 3-5% drawdown.
#516
lawdog
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Posted 05 April 2017 - 09:33 AM
80% short; that's as far as I go.
#517
Rich C
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Posted 05 April 2017 - 02:04 PM
Prez's saber rattle on Syria appeared to kill the rally today. Hard to see that resolve in less than 2 weeks. But, earnings season starts in a week, will they be good (I think so).
Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com
My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months.
#518
lawdog
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Posted 05 April 2017 - 02:14 PM
Prez's saber rattle on Syria appeared to kill the rally today. Hard to see that resolve in less than 2 weeks. But, earnings season starts in a week, will they be good (I think so).
Wrong, Rich; the market killed the rally. There is always a "reason" something happens, or that's what the press tells us. This market needs no news to go down; in fact, it is dropping without any active liquidation yet; it is falling of its own weight. Just wait until it does begin to be truly liquidated. This one could be bad. They usually aren't but it could be. But based on what I see, this decline needs some washout on heavy volume to finish, and we are nowhere near that. The topping process was quite good, three declining tops, perfect.
You see the market continue to step down, then rally, then step down, then rally, to lower reaction lows. Now hitting a new reaction low at 2364. What will the bulls do now? What more can they do? They just failed on good news; they just failed on some of the best seasonality possible; they just failed on a market that is much mroe oversold than where it was when previous rallies occurred. What's going wrong? That's how bear markets work. I don't care if it's a bear market; I just want to be on the correct side, but it looks dangerous to me.
#519
lawdog
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Posted 05 April 2017 - 02:22 PM
"Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
#520
lawdog
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Posted 05 April 2017 - 02:28 PM
Now we are seeing some liquidation. A good old-fashioned intra-day reversal. I am going to be patient and let it play out. Market pros are going to start saying the market needs some cleansing. It's always hard calling these, but this could be one of those times. Sold shorts down from 80% to 75% short.
