195 replies to this topic

[dharma]

So today's bounce is a selling opp Dharma?

all a matter of perspective.
for me it is just that . yes we will have a correction. the larger move will be to the upside. once we get through this correction
dharma

[dharma]

folks are afraid of rising rates. there needs to be a distinction between real rates and nominal rates. so yes, they will raise
nominal rates, but real rates will be behind the inflation rate. which was the case in the 70s even w/volcker raising rates to near 16%
rates were still lower than inflation.
right here i see the issue w/raising the debt ceiling. going into march 15 will create some fear that the govt will have to shut down.
a buying opportunity is going to be created.
dharma

[Russ]

interesting that you bting this up now!!!
honestly i dont remember.
are you ego involved here?
my job is the market i wouldnt know you if i was standing next to you
dharma

Not about ego, I am just interested in your strategy, do you use stop losses?   Russ

[senorBS]

Senor just checking in as I am away. so glad I listened to the miners recent signs of weakness and was 95% in cash, I said this week would likely tell the story and so far woth the shapr miners decline it does not appear a bullish story "for now". honestly not sure what happens from here, going to play is very carefully for now. 

 

BSing away

 

Senor

[dharma]

interesting that you bting this up now!!!
honestly i dont remember.
are you ego involved here?
my job is the market i wouldnt know you if i was standing next to you
dharma

Not about ego, I am just interested in your strategy, do you use stop losses?   Russ

russ- i use all different strategies if i am initiating a position then stop loss is in play. if i am adding to a position, that i
want to build i give it more room. but have a mental stop in play, but w/a lot more room than the initial position
draw downs down scare me as long as they are w/in reason. drawdowns are part of the biz. but, i still have to be able to turn a
profit. the positions i have now ,i have had for awhile w/some adds. i play in the explorer space mostly so i do research on
the company to see if they are interesting to major. last leg i had 2 takeovers. i expect to have more in 17 as majors have to
replenish their supplies. i also think geopolitical risk comes into play. and i still have a bad taste from s/afrikan miners. i try
to stay away from miners who are going to come to the table hat in hand and dilute shares. that is not good biz. eg. riefels
strategy is to drill , do prefeasibility cross his ts dot his i's but not to use up valuable cash so they will not have to come
to market to borrow money. r/rule talked about this in an interview i posted months ago.

dharma

[dharma]

does anyone feel the gann guy has something of value to offer? if not i wont post his stuff anymore
i am thinking that dec 15 low was the bottom we rallied into july for 1 . this action still might be part of 2. if we take out the
dec 16 lows then that is the conclusion i will come to. i dont think we see the 1045 taken out. but i am not going to draw a maginot
line there. my thinking is fluid. and evolving as the market gives more information the yield curve is flattening , which isnt good
for anything. except for the dollar. yields are leaning towards the fed hiking. then there is the debt ceiling.
its going to get really interesting.
dharma

[Smithy]

dharma, I value all your posts. The Gann guy has studied many decades of data and said for example that the typical gold rally is +25%. That is useful. He has his place.

[dharma]

ok thanks smithy, i will post his stuff when i get it
when trading in this sector. the miners lead. and when there is trouble for the bulls, the miners , as has been the case in this rally
lag, when this happens it signals correction. so here we are. we are not in the heart of the correction yet. it will get intense
they will throw out the baby w/the bath water.
no matter what the propaganda is if real rates are below the rate of inflation, then its bullish for gold just look to the 70s real
rates were behind the inflation rate , and it took a courageous volcker to get rates above the inflation rate to end that cycle. the
economy is much more fragile now. and there is this mountain of debt. so, whats a trader to do? sit and wait for the buying opportunity
if that doesnt suit your temperament there is always dust, if you want to play the short side. i will wait out this 4-6 week correction
which i think will create really exceptional buying opportunities. dec 15 to july 16 was a 5 wave move. so, i think the down move
ended there. i see the backdrop improving for gold http://in.reuters.co...s-idINKBN1683LKand this does not
include black market gold buying , which is relentless. so what you read by guru crackheads about indian buying being finished is bogus.
they have a different saving mentality over there. eg when i fist when to india in 1980 there were 8rps to the dollar . today there are 63
rps to the dollar indians save by buying gold modis have come and gone. they buy gold. they are not technicians. but real savers
in the ultimate asset. so, i am a technician. i am waiting for oversold w/divergences. until then, i sit.
dharma

[gannman]

I think this wave ii is almost over fwiw

[dharma]

I think this wave ii is almost over fwiw

gannman, at this point it looks that way to me, but i think it has more to go,
gdx is oversold here i use a 9bar rsi. i think the debt ceiling becomes a political football
dharma

Edited by dharma, 01 March 2017 - 11:24 AM.