195 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

 

Dharma,  Ray Merriman (MMA) says Feb 22 to April 21 is astrologically adverse for trading. How seriously should a trader take this view?

imo one has to stay in touch w/himself at all times. stay tuned in to the market. read whoever, but come to his/her own conclusions and 

stick w/them because if the market does what merriman is not expecting , then what?  the trader is then lost  .   yes, i think its fairly obvious that volatility is going to increase. there are so many things coming to a head.   follow the market. it is the only real guide.  have tools to decipher what it is saying and even still everyone is lost a good percentage of the time.  its the nature of the beast. 

i try to keep w/the big picture . i am following the 70s fractal, which this bull is going to be 25some odd years long. the 70s bull, well comex began trading in 74 by jan 22, 1980 it was all over. so the 75-76 downphase was brief. here the comparable was 11-dec 15

much longer.    we are going to be entering the recognition phase somewhere in this 17/18 time frame then things get easier. 

dharma

 

I think Fib's chart posted today also suggests the critical nature of this next week or two when looking at his XAU A/D line which has been falling fairly hard now for a few weeks while gold and silver have rallied to new highs. IMO we either soon see the miners bottom and play catch up or this rather ugly A/D line action is actually "leading" and telling us gold and silver are at/near an important top. I think this extremely opposite action can't go on much longer, something's gotta give soon IMO, we see

 

Senor

[dharma]

senor, i am a bull 

however, when i see this specific market divergence, it always leads to corrections.  that is where i sit. now if i see this situation change, i will jump back in. . and its not like i am out. i am 80% invested.  and here i will sit. until i jump back in

dharma

[senorBS]

senor, i am a bull 

however, when i see this specific market divergence, it always leads to corrections.  that is where i sit. now if i see this situation change, i will jump back in. . and its not like i am out. i am 80% invested.  and here i will sit. until i jump back in

dharma

I gotcha amigo, I think I am much more of a get in and get out trader than you are, sometimes that works good and sometimes I can miss a good part of a big move, but we all have to gravitate toward what works for us. I am a bull here "at heart" as well, just trying to "weigh" some of the 3-5 things I look at. I think we are pretty much in agreement here on the possibility of a possible significant correction, though as I have said some of the miner indices  have already retraced roughly 30% of the rally from Dec. A heads up to all, this week is a travel week for Senor so the Senor "on the fly" indicator could be in play!

[Smithy]

Gold broken out above 1260. WHERE'S SENOR BS?

[dharma]

gold is overbought
gdx is just below the 200dma
deliberating
standing still for now
dharma

[Russ]

Sure looks like a top today in Gold, it should go down for a few weeks from here.

[dharma]

russ, my take as well
i think next week is when we get started in earnest. in the past the stock market had a recession every 4 years. this expansion ,
if you want to call it that has been since the 09 lows. we are long overdue. and yes the baby , gets thrown out w/the bathwater.
have cash in 4-6weeks there will be a great buying opportunity and the bull will return.
dharma

[Russ]

russ, my take as well
i think next week is when we get started in earnest. in the past the stock market had a recession every 4 years. this expansion ,
if you want to call it that has been since the 09 lows. we are long overdue. and yes the baby , gets thrown out w/the bathwater.
have cash in 4-6weeks there will be a great buying opportunity and the bull will return.
dharma

Dharma,  Looks like an 'M' top on the 5 hour gold chart especially.  https://www.investin...ommodities/gold.  Dust is the place to be now, but I will probably just wait for the next buying opp.  

 

I read somewhere the difference between winners in the stock markets and most traders is that winners quickly react to being wrong and don't just get out they put their money in the opposite direction quickly. 

 

russ

[dharma]

russ, my take as well
i think next week is when we get started in earnest. in the past the stock market had a recession every 4 years. this expansion ,
if you want to call it that has been since the 09 lows. we are long overdue. and yes the baby , gets thrown out w/the bathwater.
have cash in 4-6weeks there will be a great buying opportunity and the bull will return.
dharma

Dharma,  Looks like an 'M' top on the 5 hour gold chart especially.  https://www.investin...ommodities/gold.  Dust is the place to be now, but I will probably just wait for the next buying opp.  
 
I read somewhere the difference between winners in the stock markets and most traders is that winners quickly react to being wrong and don't just get out they put their money in the opposite direction quickly. 
 
russ

there are many many ways to slay the beast. i used to trade like that when i was a commodity trader. fact action. now , i am content . to wait for the trend to resume. of course it more than
tested my resolve and patience from 11-15 dec. it got me to rethink and reexamine my strategy. for now , though i am content to wait for the buying opportunity. one has to be comfortable 1st and foremost, otherwise stupid mistakes occur. this correction
in the broad market, when it occurs will cause some panic in the powers that are. and this time gold will smell it. and take off. in the 4th quarter i look for the 1500s to be in play
dharma

[Russ]

 

 

russ, my take as well
i think next week is when we get started in earnest. in the past the stock market had a recession every 4 years. this expansion ,
if you want to call it that has been since the 09 lows. we are long overdue. and yes the baby , gets thrown out w/the bathwater.
have cash in 4-6weeks there will be a great buying opportunity and the bull will return.
dharma

Dharma,  Looks like an 'M' top on the 5 hour gold chart especially.  https://www.investin...ommodities/gold.  Dust is the place to be now, but I will probably just wait for the next buying opp.  
 
I read somewhere the difference between winners in the stock markets and most traders is that winners quickly react to being wrong and don't just get out they put their money in the opposite direction quickly. 
 
russ

 

there are many many ways to slay the beast. i used to trade like that when i was a commodity trader. fact action. now , i am content . to wait for the trend to resume. of course it more than
tested my resolve and patience from 11-15 dec. it got me to rethink and reexamine my strategy. for now , though i am content to wait for the buying opportunity. one has to be comfortable 1st and foremost, otherwise stupid mistakes occur. this correction
in the broad market, when it occurs will cause some panic in the powers that are. and this time gold will smell it. and take off. in the 4th quarter i look for the 1500s to be in play
dharma

 

Yes there are many ways, however buying the bottom and selling the top are the best ways.  I remember last summer when I had said on this site that I thought that gold and gold stocks had peaked you said you were buying, so does that mean you held those purchases into the next big low in mid December or did you have a stop loss system in place?