Member
Posted 17 March 2017 - 02:57 PM
2 days of consolidation. gold strong , the miners giving back little if anything
bradley on monday
wave 5 on deck
i have the popcorn.
cots have improved significantly for the 2nd week the gold bull case remains strong
http://news.goldseek.../1489779050.php
dharma
i wonder how china feels they raised interest rates, dollar fell, and bond yields came down.
not good for holders of us bonds. anyone think about that. ???
Member
Posted 18 March 2017 - 11:52 AM
imo the parameters are set.
1195 and 1240 for gold
silver made new lows into the fed meeting , gold did not intermarket divergence
the cots have improved dramatically over the last 2 weeks. keep in mind cots are as of tuesday . the big move was wednesday
break the 1195 lows and i am out of what i just bought
otherwise i ride.
dharma
Member
Posted 18 March 2017 - 12:05 PM
imo the parameters are set.
1195 and 1240 for gold
silver made new lows into the fed meeting , gold did not intermarket divergence
the cots have improved dramatically over the last 2 weeks. keep in mind cots are as of tuesday . the big move was wednesday
break the 1195 lows and i am out of what i just bought
otherwise i ride.
dharma
I like the potential as well and went back 20% long Friday. I will say this, while a new rally high in most miner ETFs/indices would look like a possible completing 5 up, the GDXJ which had all-time single day volume on Thursdays huge rally (bullish action IMO) would be best counted as a possible 1/2, i/ii with new highs suggesting a 3rd wave because of downside overlap into Fridays decline lows. New highs are bullish either way but "could" lead to a surprise 3rd instead of a 5th. Go too low early next week and it makes recent rally look more like an abc. I favor bullish case but respect/acknowledge bearish one as well. BTW I looked at gold priced in about 7 different currencies and almost all of those charts look bullish with 5-wave advances and various stages of corrections underway. Could be a helluva decisive week coming up!
NO BS
Senor
Member
Posted 18 March 2017 - 02:01 PM
Senor, I am long but the last 2 days' HUI:Gold closes make me nervous.
Member
Posted 18 March 2017 - 04:58 PM
Senor, I am long but the last 2 days' HUI:Gold closes make me nervous.
Senor, I am long but the last 2 days' HUI:Gold closes make me nervous.
You should be nervous whether long or short, I have said nothing is high confidence here and laid out why because of the unclear but soon likely to be clarified wave count. I have also said that IMO its a time for "lighter trading" positions and that is what I am doing, I do favor the upside but acknowledge a bearish resolution is viable, therefore I ended Friday about 20% long, for me personally it does not make sense to have large positions here whether a trader or investor - that is simply my style and what works for me very well may not work for you or others.
Senor
Edited by senorBS, 18 March 2017 - 04:59 PM.
Member
Posted 20 March 2017 - 09:11 AM
not doing a thing. the last signal was fed hike day. strong volume and a big up day. since then the market has consolidated.
waiting and waiting.
want to see follow through.
no reason to do anything
dharma
Member
Posted 20 March 2017 - 10:03 AM
not doing a thing. the last signal was fed hike day. strong volume and a big up day. since then the market has consolidated.
waiting and waiting.
want to see follow through.
no reason to do anything
dharma
unless one is a trader perhaps
I like the upside "potential" here and am 20% long, I have a feeling I wish I was more invested but from my perspective there is just not enough bullish evidence so 20% works for me for now
BSing away
Senor
Member
Posted 21 March 2017 - 08:55 AM
Member
Posted 21 March 2017 - 09:40 AM
money velocity should begin changing directions. after 3 rises in rates
gdx/gdxj and a lot of miner charts have inverse h&s patterns
the commercial short position in gold is 125k compare this to the 350k to mid last year
when the commercial short position has spiked this low it has coincided w/bull moves in gold
it happened 4 previous times. . what are the odds that it is different this time
i am waiting for the market to move to the upside. and i am positioned for that.
to these eyes the market looks great. sure i realize there are other possibilities , but
dharma
as an aside i am pondering a move out of govt , out of the euro , and into stocks worldwide??!!
Member
Posted 21 March 2017 - 10:19 AM
lets be cautiously optimistic here folks and not yet anoint this as iii of 3 - it might be but it's always a process and one day/step at a time and there is simply not enough evidence "yet". I want to see a strong day and close with gold AND the miners closing at/near session highs, if that does NOT happen it's a warning sign IMO. We have a very decent shot here but this is also where it pays to be vigilant. I would not at all like it if GDX fell below 22.89 today, not at all, it should keep pushing higher if bullish and I would like to see it take out the previous 23.45 rally high today.
as always DYODD - this is a big day IMO, close strong 3 up looks good, close weak and at or below GDX 22.89 and I am gone
Senor
