16 replies to this topic

[Charvo]

 

I think the VIX mini-bump up the past couple of weeks is a sign of greater put demand down the line.

[Charvo]

 

TLT looks like it may be rallying vs the SPY which is bearish for the market.

[Data]

People have been writing about the mystery buyer for several months.

 

https://www.bloomber...ng-21-questions

 

It reminds of the mystery trading account 990N from 2004.

[Charvo]

People have been writing about the mystery buyer for several months.

 

https://www.bloomber...ng-21-questions

 

It reminds of the mystery trading account 990N from 2004.

It sounds like the VIX buyer has purchased a ton of calls with an expiration of Feb and Mar 2018.  Those are long-dated options that probably reflect the buyer's feeling that volatility is cheap but not knowing if the spike is coming soon.

Edited by Charvo, 04 April 2017 - 10:26 PM.

[K Wave]

Eventually there will be a decent pullback, but bears failure to hold NQ 5435 yesterday afternoon put ball back in bull court.

 

12 NQ hour chart still looks tired, but if we significantly blow out NQ 5460 today, then can't rule out big time short squeeze....

 

if 5460 area holds, then will look to re-short when VST signals start to appear.....

[diogenes227]

The magic number for the bears is roughly plus 15 on the VIX.  Below 15, it can turn up but don't expect much. Above 15...take a look at 2007-2009 and late last year on the chart below. 

 

As of now, more upside it appears.

 

[Iblayz]

Setup is rather compelling. After updating spreadsheets last night couldn't help but point out that QQQ, NDX, Nasdaq, SPX, OEX, RUT, NYSE, SPY, DOW and the Wilshire 5000 ALL went to short term sell signals as of yesterday's close. And the signals occurred in areas I consider reliable. But, as mentioned before, they are short term (3-5 days) and, as such, are subject to whipsaw. They are also slaves to longer term stuff. Looks like the ADP report was SOOO good that it brought out the best of the best faders. Came into the day long and sold too early as usual.

[Iblayz]

SPX 65 minute just did a perfect back kiss of a broken downtrend line (broken on the opening bar). Holding it is key. That was a roughly 2365->2365.25 ES.

[Iblayz]

Setup is rather compelling. After updating spreadsheets last night couldn't help but point out that QQQ, NDX, Nasdaq, SPX, OEX, RUT, NYSE, SPY, DOW and the Wilshire 5000 ALL went to short term sell signals as of yesterday's close. And the signals occurred in areas I consider reliable. But, as mentioned before, they are short term (3-5 days) and, as such, are subject to whipsaw. They are also slaves to longer term stuff. Looks like the ADP report was SOOO good that it brought out the best of the best faders. Came into the day long and sold too early as usual.

 

I should also point out that taking out the most recent high after the signal fires technically negates the signal. Of course, I trade the SPX only but I am sure that would extend to most other stuff as well (taking out the most recent high). Short term that is Bullish....NOT bearish, especially if the gap support is tested and holds.

[K Wave]

12 hour NQ looking very, very tired now with tat long tailed spike.....