216 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

sometimes you just have to accept that you won't get the most out of the move. the good thing is that most of the time, a correction from the primary trend occurs, giving you the chance to then add to the position. but as anyone who follows me can see, I usually trade in and out with the final 10 or 20% of the position so I get a bit more out of the move but take less overnight risk. in most markets, they correct along the way, so those in and out trades can really add to the bottom line without adding much risk.  in the wednesday plunge, I started the day at 55% but ended at 65% with the last 10% added right at the bottom on close. all that helped me to get back to near high balance in one trading acct, even though the spx is near 20 points lower. I could have done a better job on wednesday, but so far it appears to have to my favor.

 

we will see how the tea leaves look over the weekend. thanks to all for tuning in, regardless of your reasons. MAGA

[lawdog]

surprising strong Monday open. don't like a strong Monday opening, but my weekend analysis did not see any problems other than the fact that things appear to have rolled over, but that is probably a result of the impeachment silliness this past week. Markets will eventually learn that these events will occur frequently in the next 4 years and they will have less and less impact.

 

so I will stick with it. will spx be turned back at 2400 again? i think we should get thru to 2430-2475 in the next few weeks, but a lot will happen in those few weeks. the wednesday drop probably refreshed the mkt enough to provide a springboard to new highs. however, initial put/call numbers show lots of call buying. something worth watching, but monday a.m. after expiration is skewed. many indicators of sentiment and momentum have corrected back to where this current rally began a few weeks ago; hence, the springboard analogy. 

 

It's funny that markets before the election feared a trump presidency and now they fear the loss of the trump presidency. Paraphrasing Mark Twain, "Reports of my [impeachment] are greatly exaggerated." 

 

i 'knew' silver was a buy. wish i had bot more on the drop last week.

[lawdog]

going to be a bit incommunicado this week, so in preparation, I sold down to 45% at spx 2390. this reflects my caution on two things: 1) call/put ratios are getting to where these players are more persistently bullish and 2) if the market were really strong, perhaps it would not have sold off as much as it did. still, the weight of evidence supports the bull case, so I remain at 45% long.

[lawdog]

back up to 55%; "made" .13 per share on the turnaround, so, assuming we are headed higher, i'll take it.

[lawdog]

sold back down to 45%. Don't like the way call/put numbers are trending. showing increased willingness to buy excess calls over puts. I saw the same thing last week but did not act upon it. Doubt this ends the advance, but, like in blackjack, you reduce the size of your bets when the count is not as much in your favor (not that i'm a blackjack player). You need a certain amount of bullishness to carry a market higher, so this is probably okay but bears (no pun) watching. In fact, when a market starts a nice new advance, out of the gate you often see strong call buying, but the option players usually get too bearish too soon. This may turn out to be what is happening right now, but I don't like that we are just back at old highs and are seeing a greater willingness to accept more risk. 

[lawdog]

silver; yes! Gold as well but not nearly as much. Good chance we exceed highs of prior intermediate peak.

 

Call/put ratios continue to show persistent bullishness. NAZ is really out of control, but maybe fundamentals support it. Just riding the crest of the wave until it finally ends on shore. (Note I did not say "crashes on shore." Remember, just because a market goes up does not need it has to retrace the gain.) As I said before above, Monday put/call after expiration is often skewed, but these numbers concern me for the continuation of the rally. However, if you look at isee put/call, the equity is still very low, below 100, which means there are 100 opening call positions for every 100 opening put positions, so this is a bullish reading. But I do give more weight to the cboe numbers, and they are flashing caution. I am giving the market a short leash today, especially since I will be less available beginning tomorrow. 

 

Metals probably going to do very well. 

 

Main trading account and one minor trading account are well above highs preceding last wednesday debacle, so the plunge worked in my favor. but let's face it, I am probably just getting bailed out by a persistent bull market. So must not get too confident in my ability to analyze the market. As I have written before, it's either up or down, and up has been fairly easy here, so i'm no genius and my indicators are not foolproof.

[lawdog]

back up to 55%; had to pay up .08 per share, so all i have done today with my trading is make some money for my broker, which is fine. intraday, the call/put numbers are moderating, which is what I had hoped for. The skew eases off as the day moves on, so I think the later readings are more representative of continued skepticism of the market, so it warrants taking a larger position. 

[lawdog]

can't find much wrong with the current advance. the only glaring problem is a low put/call ratio on the cboe equities, but so many other things are so good, i can only see the market, at worst, consolidating here, then likely moving higher. will hold my present 55%-60% position and will likely add on a few flat to modestly lower days, which actually seems unlikely. I find current conditions remarkably supportive of new highs straight ahead.

[lawdog]

sold some today, not much, but did sell all naz100 position in qld. i just have a sense there is danger looming, maybe still a few days away, no particular reason other than just a sense. sometimes you turn off the "instruments" (indicators of sentiment and momentum) and continue using "dead reckoning", so to speak. i just have a sense that a change is coming. if the market can maintain and break thru, then maybe we can break well above spx 2400. how's that for equivocation? sorry to be so completely unsure. we could just see a rotation from naz to spx. i feel more like preserving capital right now, so will be careful until we get a stronger indication.

 

silver disappoints. perhaps will increase that position. 

[lawdog]

sold down to 30%.  so much looks so favorable for continued highs, but I am going with my gut on this one. feel something is coming, at least very short term.