31 replies to this topic

[NAV]

No, I am not Greenie. I know him and his blog.
Thanks everyone for kind words
As I already mentioned somewhere - really surprising to see everyone so bulled up on market going nowhere since 1 of March. In fact declining if you take FANG out.
Good luck to all.

 

Why the March 1st reference point?  I have been bulled up since SPX 2060. So have been the rest of the crowd who participated in this rally. That has not prevented the market from rallying another 350 points, since then.

 

I can assure you of one thing though. You will get your "I told ya so moment", someday. 

[fib_1618]

Greenie has a blog? Really? Would love to see a link on that!

 

Fib

[MDurkin]

Greenie has a blog? Really? Would love to see a link on that!

 

Fib

http://antigreen.blogspot.com/  Maybe?

[alexnewbee]

Greenie has a blog? Really? Would love to see a link on that!
 
Fib

Greenscam.blogspot.com

[alexnewbee]

No, I am not Greenie. I know him and his blog.
Thanks everyone for kind words
As I already mentioned somewhere - really surprising to see everyone so bulled up on market going nowhere since 1 of March. In fact declining if you take FANG out.
Good luck to all.

 
Why the March 1st reference point?  I have been bulled up since SPX 2060. So have been the rest of the crowd who participated in this rally. That has not prevented the market from rallying another 350 points, since then.
 
I can assure you of one thing though. You will get your "I told ya so moment", someday. 

Cos I think 1 of March marked some kind of important top. Check GS. I could be wrong
TWT.

Edited by alexnewbee, 29 May 2017 - 07:58 AM.

[alexnewbee]

 

 

 

 

 

Why don't these companies split anymore? It seems like whoever is buying it can pay $1000 a share.

Why should they? Soon they will cost a third without split
 

 
Keep hoping...one day you might be right.
 
Fib

I like your confidence. I know it is impossible. Well, almost impossible
 

 
Nothing is impossible, but your emotionalism in this ongoing search for an elusive top has probably kept you from participating in a 30% gain in the SPX in the last 18 months. Wouldn't it be better to trade the direction in which money is flowing and let others play this losing game of "can you call this"? Trading is a business, YOUR business, with the focus in having your money working for you on a consistent basis and not to get distracted from this same goal.
 
Fib
 

 
Fib, I have a feeling you are taking it too personally. No offence please.
In 2008 I also tried to pick the top in crude. And people who were long from 120 till 147 kept telling me "you missed that 20%" 
You know what? I shorted WTIC @145 . Well, I have to admit that closed this trade far too early, was going to vacation and did not want to leave this position unattended. Too bad for me. 
As for stocks I agree with J. Hussmann - we are close to something similar to 1929, 1987 or 2000. You can select your choice. And someone here said - why would you take notice of someone who missed this rally? Because he was lonly bull in 1993 and because he was lonly bear in 2007. I like his analysis. 
 

 
You could have rode that last 20% from 120 to 147 with trailing stops and nothing prevented you from doing that other than your own emotions and pre-conveived ideas. I guess that is Fib's point.
 
10 years later and you still picking the tops ? Talk about persistence...LOL !
 
There used to be a guy called Greenie on this board. I beleive he caught the OIL top too (in 2008) and still waiting for his 70% drop in Silicon valley real estate, death of Google and civil war in India. I hope you are not him. 

I think I got his point.
For me it is state of mind, I think next big money is to be maid on bear side and bulling now is like picking pennies in front of a steamroller. But so far I am wrong and early, seems like. We will see soon.

[andr99]

Well alex. I think you are right as for what you are expecting, but a bit early. Don' t worry about the critics, no one here was bearish ahead of the 2007 drop and I guess no one was bearish ahead of the falling market that started in 2000. So why would you worry now ? Don' t know if it is going to be 1929 again or what, but what I know is that I have a good LT indicator that flashed LT tops in 2000 and 2007 so that I' m not worried it doesn' t work this time too. What I can say is that we are not still there, but we are approaching such a point. When the time comes I will tell here and we will see if Hussmann is right or wrong. That said the rest of the troups here are not worried about LT tops or bottoms either, basically because they trade daily and they trade futures. What the hell might they care about if their horizon is just two or three days ? They' re just worried about another 1987 event because that would destroy also a day trader if caught on the wrong side. All the rest that is not 1987, is not worrysome for them. Take care and relax....IT and LT traders will make good money when the moment comes and definitely it's this year   

Edited by andr99, 31 May 2017 - 02:21 PM.

[alexnewbee]

Thank you Andr.
Well, I do not think we are there already. For now I expect several weeks of good move down, then retest or may be slightly exceed ATH. Probably beginning of August. Time will tell.

[NAV]

Well alex. I think you are right as for what you are expecting, but a bit early. Don' t worry about the critics, no one here was bearish ahead of the 2007 drop and I guess no one was bearish ahead of the falling market that started in 2000. So why would you worry now ? Don' t know if it is going to be 1929 again or what, but what I know is that I have a good LT indicator that flashed LT tops in 2000 and 2007 so that I' m not worried it doesn' t work this time too. What I can say is that we are not still there, but we are approaching such a point. When the time comes I will tell here and we will see if Hussmann is right or wrong. That said the rest of the troups here are not worried about LT tops or bottoms either, basically because they trade daily and they trade futures. What the hell might they care about if their horizon is just two or three days ? They' re just worried about another 1987 event because that would destroy also a day trader if caught on the wrong side. All the rest that is not 1987, is not worrysome for them. Take care and relax....IT and LT traders will make good money when the moment comes and definitely it's this year   

 

You can't make money off the past market action. You can't make money on the imaginary future. Money can only be made by trading the present. 

[andr99]

 

Well alex. I think you are right as for what you are expecting, but a bit early. Don' t worry about the critics, no one here was bearish ahead of the 2007 drop and I guess no one was bearish ahead of the falling market that started in 2000. So why would you worry now ? Don' t know if it is going to be 1929 again or what, but what I know is that I have a good LT indicator that flashed LT tops in 2000 and 2007 so that I' m not worried it doesn' t work this time too. What I can say is that we are not still there, but we are approaching such a point. When the time comes I will tell here and we will see if Hussmann is right or wrong. That said the rest of the troups here are not worried about LT tops or bottoms either, basically because they trade daily and they trade futures. What the hell might they care about if their horizon is just two or three days ? They' re just worried about another 1987 event because that would destroy also a day trader if caught on the wrong side. All the rest that is not 1987, is not worrysome for them. Take care and relax....IT and LT traders will make good money when the moment comes and definitely it's this year   

 

You can't make money off the past market action. You can't make money on the imaginary future. Money can only be made by trading the present. 

 

Well, since July 2016 I' m up 33% and coming July 2017 I think I will overcome 50%. All the rest is philosophy