475 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

JG you staying long here?

 

dougie

 

Yes, I am long and bullish.  Pullbacks and draw downs are part of the game for me.  Not a good enough trader/analyst to jump in and out of the market like many confidently can do.  My thinking about the market lately has been mimicking dharma regarding owning explorers, coming into the best seasonal time of the year, geopolitical issues, and the unbelievable amount of debt world wide.  Something someplace has to give soon and I want to be in precious metals and mining stocks when it does. 

 

Meanwhile I wait and see and remain debt free!

Edited by johngeorge, 20 August 2017 - 05:51 PM.

[senorBS]

Tricky market, like Dharma said we may get another near term pullback here, that reversal in key big stocks like AEM/NEM/GG/ABX looked pretty ugly Friday, glad I exited when I did. I do favor the upside overall but given I will be out of computer touch for about 3 weeks starting a week from tomorrow I will likely opt to just stay out. Not really sure what the count is here so another good reason to be flat, my dos centavos

 

Senor

[dharma]

the battle for 1300 gold continues.  it might take awhile. But i think this time when it goes through it , it has a good chance for it to stay there.  the debt ceiling debate will begin in a few weeks. we

all get to watch our policy makers in action/inaction as the case may be. in the end the debt ceiling will be raised.  the rest will be the show. 

looking at what the majors are having to mine from their inventory. leads me to believe that a feeding frenzy is not that far away. the majors are being forced to run lower grade ore. its what they have left.  however for their share holders to stomach purchases , higher prices are needed to give them confidence.  of course they will be paying hundred dollars an oz.  but the cost to build out some of these properties will be high.  gold staying above 1300 for a period will spark that. so i am nibbling in the explorer space.  in the last round i had 3 explorers taken out in 16 and before that i had quite a number taken out. its part of the gold cycle.  i am looking at the dollar/yen  this bounce in the dollar should set the stage for the big show , the debt ceiling debate. of course the debt ceiling does not of the people any good. its just the show. however , the longer the show goes on, the lower the buck will go.  how did we get here?    

the next couple of months should set the stage for higher gold prices. the pattern and structure of the market look constructive.  

dharma

[gannman]

i agree dharma the dollar is giving strong support to gold prices here i am long and holding 

[senorBS]

back to 20% long, tight stop, looks like nice abc down in gold, we see

 

Senor

[dharma]

its quiet around here, it is summer

since the lows on july 10 gold has rallied almost a 100. it seems quite normal to me if it spent some time consolidating those gains.  a move to 1250 does not seem extraordinary or excessive. i am not saying that is what i see coming. but it would not ruffle my feathers either as frustrating as it is , the miners are in a pennant , volume has declined and price has coiled into a spring.  it seems to me miners are ready to spring upward.  since the lows in dec 15, the gold/miners ratio has moved in favor of the miners, then consolidated.  we are getting ready for the next leg up in miners vs gold.  

the dollar seems set to rally vs the yen, that rally will set the stage for the next decline. since trump became president the dollar has not fared well. w/ever increasing debt trump will advocate a weak dollar. it helps to make the debt more affordable. a falling dollar will keep a floor under gold.   

the broad market made a high, came off that high and now is rallying back to try and take out that high, if it fails to do so,  the market will be in trouble. it is similar to the 87 setup if that happens. we will find out shortly

 dharma

yes, i am bullish 

[senorBS]

The HUI prior to late July had only had TWO closes above its upper 200-day MA (simple) ALL YEAR. In late July we had 3 closes above then came down to test the 50 to 200-day MA "band" (happened twice in the first two weeks of Aug). Those tests were successful and we've now had 4 straight closes solidly above the upper 200-day MA and today would make 5. There are no guarantees ever, but IMO this is "likely" an important indication of a "character change" showing developing bullish price action. As always DYODD 

 

Senor

[dharma]

The HUI prior to late July had only had TWO closes above its upper 200-day MA (simple) ALL YEAR. In late July we had 3 closes above then came down to test the 50 to 200-day MA "band" (happened twice in the first two weeks of Aug). Those tests were successful and we've now had 4 straight closes solidly above the upper 200-day MA and today would make 5. There are no guarantees ever, but IMO this is "likely" an important indication of a "character change" showing developing bullish price action. As always DYODD 

 

Senor

good points  for 20yrs since 1996-2016 miners have lost ground to gold that reversed and is reversing since 16 . i think the fundamentals are falling in place for miners to outpace gold.  we shall see

dharma

[senorBS]

 

The HUI prior to late July had only had TWO closes above its upper 200-day MA (simple) ALL YEAR. In late July we had 3 closes above then came down to test the 50 to 200-day MA "band" (happened twice in the first two weeks of Aug). Those tests were successful and we've now had 4 straight closes solidly above the upper 200-day MA and today would make 5. There are no guarantees ever, but IMO this is "likely" an important indication of a "character change" showing developing bullish price action. As always DYODD 

 

Senor

good points  for 20yrs since 1996-2016 miners have lost ground to gold that reversed and is reversing since 16 . i think the fundamentals are falling in place for miners to outpace gold.  we shall see

dharma

 

agree, could back and fill near these key MA's for a while yet, but I am encourages for the int and longer term prospects, we see

 

Senor

[Russ]

some insight from rogerdoder (on this board above) in case you missed it.... Posted 19 August 2017 - 09:37 AM

Gold bullishness is high here at 78% Wall Street and 65% Main Street.

But my observation is that they are more likely to follow a trend than forecast what's ahead.

http://www.kitco.com...On-Shining.html

 

This was the 3rd instance of a down week after making a new high near 1300.

The seasonal chart (above) makes me wonder if we will see some consolidation right here before a post Labor day advance.

Coincidentally, the seasonal chart (above) shows mid August retreating from previous resistance before taking off in September...and then re-testing that same area again in September. Of course, it's never exactly the same.