54 replies to this topic

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Closed the rest at 2887.

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Account up about 25% on this trade, should have been double, I won't get another signal like that for awhile,

maybe months. Now the time is to back off and be very careful not to give all this back. I doubt I trade any more

this week, Friday's are usually just chop, could work a lot higher though, too dangerous, the trade and signal are over.

I would like to make money more regularly than just sitting and watching for days but that is what you have to do in trading.

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The key to successful trading is knowing where to enter again on a retrace against the trend, or where the max pain level is

just before it goes to a reversal. The number today was 2910, I knew it, and I could have defended it with a tight stop, but since

I don't like Friday trading I passed. This happens over and over, I need to start taking these trades or you miss low risk entries,

then what are you going to do, chase ? There is a lot of information in how price acts at support/resistance, you just have to know

where those numbers are, they are not often where most people think they are.

Edited by CLK, 05 October 2018 - 10:07 AM.

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Long 290C at 2882 for Wed., doubt I make anything but B/E, ITM is just too expensive though.

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Looks like a lot of internals drop and not much price unlike Feb., so I could see 30-35 points rally here to reset

then form another top. Target should be at least to the lower channel after that, then maybe retest Feb. lows later.

I think this top takes time just like 2015 but do not expect new highs.

 

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VIX is getting ridiculous here given the small amount of price drop. The only way to make money on options here is to sell credit put spreads

or buy same day puts and you better be right, too much risk for me right now. The other option is to buy $5-$6 premium, too much for me, in the

event of a big relief rally 3/4 money is gone if held overnight. Best to just stay out and miss a crash and wait for the premiums to come down.

 

So we have higher VIX but no new lows on SPX. Puts should have been bought and held near the top when they were cheap, but there is risk in give back even in that. The goal is to make money and NOT lose, small stops add up, 1 maybe 2 stops is my absolute limit, rather use none and be right which requires looking at the big picture of trading goals and doing nothing, unfortunate but that is the way it is and why most people are not profitable, ie, over-trading.

Edited by CLK, 08 October 2018 - 10:22 AM.

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Long 290C at 2882 for Wed., doubt I make anything but B/E, ITM is just too expensive though.

 

 

Added to long, these are 289C not 290, mistake.

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Looks like my position will expire worthless tomorrow. This is a bear market now, institutions have no interest in buying anymore and

retail can only boost it so high on bounces. Really I'd rather be trading the bull market, it's easier short or long.

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My hourly system went to a buy, waiting to see what happens. A failure takes us back to 2800.

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Short.

 

Nov. 7 289P @ $5.53