Jump to content



Photo

bottoming process continues


  • Please log in to reply
911 replies to this topic

#191 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,621 posts

Posted 20 December 2018 - 01:26 PM

so stu your primary count is bearish, market needs to prove itself. so a reasonable assumption

yesterday , before the fed many facets of the sector had regained its 200dma but gold was unable to hold its 200dma. today gold has blown through its 200 dma. silver is on the cusp of making  the last 3 months of action into a big base.  a breakout would send the shorts scurrying

it seems we walk closer and closer to bull market territory. over the last so many years the bulls have notoriously fumbled

lets see what happens here rate hikes in december have been bullish for the pms. the fed is in hotel california. they are trapped.  0 rates have put undo pressure on pension funds.  my guess is the fed is behind the curve. 

the huge deficits that the governments of the world continue to accrue will be a ball and chain for mankind

the piper will be paid

dharma

senor i am a bit of a gambler.  i like to think my gambling is educated. hennigh was chief geologist for newmont and has a long history of being tops in his field . so novo is quite an interesting strike  gold at the surface . fully funded by sprott inc. et al . i believe this could be the largest strike in quite some time. novo has control of a huge land mass. on the break i loaded up around 150 , previous support area. i also took a flyer on pacton , who also has been accumulating a large land mass.  we shall see. this is in no way investment advice. i know nothing. and prove that almost daily.   happy holidays to all and happy new year

 

i also like to refer to the 70s fractal . 78 was the year gold broke the base and 79 it started on its tear. i believe the top will be in early 22 so we are somewhat behind the jan 80 high .  i believe 18 is the base for 19 to begin the trek higher. this and the bus fare will get you on the bus. 



#192 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 27,038 posts

Posted 20 December 2018 - 02:04 PM

GDX final battle at 1 min 900....

 

Decision likely very close now for next swing move...

 

Taking out the top of yesterday's bearish engulfing would likely be quite bullish, while failt right about here and turning back down could mean bulls are outta gas....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#193 dougie

dougie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,064 posts

Posted 21 December 2018 - 01:32 AM

Two EW counts moving front and center:

 

Primary Count:  http://schrts.co/bJ7kG7 yesterday was completion of Wave 4 of 5 of C of 2 and now a 5-Wave subdivided Wave 5 to complete Wave 2   

 

Secondary Count:  http://schrts.co/wT7tz4 yesterday was completion of Wave 4 of a leading Diagonal of Wave 1 or 3 or C

 

Right now I would place about 60% probability on Primary count, FWIW   

 

Note: I use XAU for my EW work

 

Good Luck to all and no matter what happens short-term a substantial bull move in the PM's should unfold in 2019

 

stu

Stu in the secondary count the 4 overlaps the 1...

 

Nice conting. you have been spot on with the Primary count for a LONG TIME



#194 Smithy

Smithy

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,296 posts

Posted 21 December 2018 - 08:24 AM

Dharma can you share with us your reasoning for a gold top early '22?



#195 stubaby

stubaby

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,661 posts

Posted 21 December 2018 - 08:41 AM

 

Two EW counts moving front and center:

 

Primary Count:  http://schrts.co/bJ7kG7 yesterday was completion of Wave 4 of 5 of C of 2 and now a 5-Wave subdivided Wave 5 to complete Wave 2   

 

Secondary Count:  http://schrts.co/wT7tz4 yesterday was completion of Wave 4 of a leading Diagonal of Wave 1 or 3 or C

 

Right now I would place about 60% probability on Primary count, FWIW   

 

Note: I use XAU for my EW work

 

Good Luck to all and no matter what happens short-term a substantial bull move in the PM's should unfold in 2019

 

stu

Stu in the secondary count the 4 overlaps the 1...

 

Nice conting. you have been spot on with the Primary count for a LONG TIME

 

Thanks dougie - "this time IS different" since the top in 2011, as the underlying fundamentals for gold and the PM's are lining up, including out-performance vs stock markets, currencies and other commodities (the drop in the price of oil, one of the main cost inputs for mining will bring some surprising earnings results in the 1st quarter, IMHO)  However, there are still a couple of macro inputs that have yet to turn - so optimistic caution - ready to deploy is my current thinking.

 

Regarding the overlap, I characterized the count as a leading diagonal for 1 of 3 or C up

 

stu



#196 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 27,038 posts

Posted 21 December 2018 - 10:01 AM

Stating to look like bulls don't have the horsepower to reclaim critical levels yet....unless they mount a charge right about here...

 

Those bearish engufings right at key levels on the miners have to be respected until bulls can take them out upside


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#197 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 27,038 posts

Posted 21 December 2018 - 10:27 AM

unless they mount a charge right about here...

 

right where they had to.... now we see if it holds, and can go take yesterday's big battle zone...if so, could be big turning point....

 

Back below the pivot just made, and bull hopes will start to fade...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#198 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,621 posts

Posted 21 December 2018 - 12:34 PM

smithy remind of your request in late 21

agree those bearish engulfing patterns in the miners have to be respected.  that is my focus right here. things should clarify in the next week or 2. more crammers will jump on the ship. its time is coming.  but for now lets see if the miners can break above these bearish engulfing patterns

dharma

stealth is the word.



#199 senorBS

senorBS

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 10,965 posts

Posted 23 December 2018 - 10:34 AM

Gotta say I haven't seen the DSI numbers in quite a while, was sorta shocked to see the 5-day on Gold and Silver both below 30% Bulls (can U confirm this Dharma?), given the very solid $60 gold rally from Nov 18 and gold near rally highs that IMO is very bullish action and overall bodes well for a good end to this yr and start to next yr. and significantly higher prices. 

 

Senor



#200 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,621 posts

Posted 23 December 2018 - 12:33 PM

will try to piece it together from the most recent 32%,26%,cant find the data past that

dharma