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Risk Windows Next Week

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#1 Douglas



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Posted 29 December 2018 - 02:03 PM

According to my system the highest risk window for a turn or acceleration of the current trend next week is Monday morning the 31st thru Wednesday morning the 2nd centered around the holiday.


Last week I noted a similar risk window centered around the Christmas holiday  and sure enough Santa Claus (a.k.a. the PPT) brought the good bulls the biggest rally in history straight down the chimney of all those wicked bears.  The DJIA futures bottomed right on Christmas day:  https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=h1  


The jury is still out on the 28th risk window.  It certainly looked like the trepidatious start of a turn back down, but I strongly suspect the PPT will not give the grinch bear any quarter.  Having been atom bombed on the 26th, the poor wretched ursine beast's future probably lies as a pelt on the floor of the bull's house to warm his cloven hooves.  


Happy New Year, 




#2 Douglas



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Posted 30 December 2018 - 02:37 AM

My Rubicons for deciding if the current down draft is just a correction and not a longer term, full blown bear market using charts at www.stockcharts.com are as follows:


1) $SUPHLP cumulative crosses its 10 EMA

2) $NYA200R rises above a FIB 38%

3) The DJIA crosses above 24,000


In my humble opinion, any one of the above raises serious doubts, all three put the bear's dirge on the load speakers. 




Edited by Douglas, 30 December 2018 - 02:38 AM.

#3 CLK



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Posted 30 December 2018 - 04:40 PM

If INDU does NOT close TOMORROW at or above 24,000 then there is a 90% probability that this is a long term bear market.


Can there be a retest attempt ?  Yes, but it won't hold, and may only prolong the downside by 6 months, serving no other purpose 

than to trap more 401k money.



What a simple way to invest, just follow the trend.




Stockcharts are no longer loading with copied address.




Edited by CLK, 30 December 2018 - 04:42 PM.

I will not vote for Trump again, too reckless and does not do much to help the people. Life long Republican here, but the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, needs to change.