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The Battle for SPX 2800


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:21 PM

First, let's state the obvious: MARKETS were actually UP today.

 

Did not feel so after the SPX bolted above SPX 2800 several time but then fell back and retreated at the close to SPX 2796.

 

Technically, the trends ST/IT/LT are still UP.

 

I finally got my HOURLY VIX so I expect at least a few hours of SPX decline but I would not be surprised that "good news" 

sends SPX above 2810 and even higher. 

 

OddStats @OddStats
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Today, $VIX closed up at least +1.00 pt on a day where $SPX was positive. If we limit events to times when VIX was under 15.00, this is only the 7th time this has ever happened (since VIX data began in 1990). Here are the $SPX forward returns after the other 6.

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4:22 PM - 25 Feb 2019

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:25 PM

 @FactSet
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10 of 11 $SPX sectors are projected to see lower year-over-year net profit margins in Q1 2019. http://ow.ly/VO3Y50lY9PC 

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7:30 AM - 25 Feb 2019
 

$SPX is projected to report first year-over-year decline in net profit margin in Q1 2019 since 2016. http://ow.ly/QMqV50lY9OI 

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7:01 AM - 25 Feb 2019


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:26 PM


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For everyone that thought the most recent retail sales print was a fluke, January and Feb credit card data still off a cliff. $SPX

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12:29 PM - 25 Feb 2019


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:27 PM

There he goes again....

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Tesla shares plunge as Elon Musk faces US contempt claim for violating SEC accord. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/elon-musk-faces-u-s-contempt-claim-for-violating-sec-accord 

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3:43 PM - 25 Feb 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:31 PM

Sven Henrich

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$ES rejected off of the .786 fib

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1:00 PM - 25 Feb 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:35 PM

S&P Futures dropped a bit as I posted above....

 

Not extreme stink, but bad breath....

  1. Helene Meisler Retweeted Dan Rosenblum

    I think so too. But more so for breadth fans, it is the first day breadth was weak while indexes were green

    Helene Meisler added,

    Dan Rosenblum @sharkbiotech
    I think this is the first ugly reversal day of the year
    3 replies8 retweets23 likes
    Reply
     3
     
    Retweet
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  2.  

    Biggest change in the market today is breadth. And it started right after the open



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:55 PM

This sounds bad... is it? 

 

David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie
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The Citi Global Economic Surprise index, at -21.6, is nearly the same as it was at the Dec 24th market low. It's now 227 days below zero -- only exceeded by the Great Recession of 2008-09. Markets totally devoid of economic realities.

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6:17 AM - 22 Feb 2019


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:56 PM

David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie
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Question: What sort of bull market is this when the Dow Utilities are challenging the peaks, and yet the Transports are still 8.5% below their highs? It’s a fair question. Beneath the veneer, maybe the equity market isn’t pricing in any sort of growth rebound.

11:44 AM - 25 Feb 2019

The nominal ISM, manufacturing + nonmanufacturing, has fallen for 3 months in a row and is 13% lower now than it was when the last recession started; 19% lower than it was the month before the recession in Mar. 2000. Peel things back, look under the hood…and you may see “it”!



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:59 PM

McClellan Analysis: Expect bull market run to continue until 2021
11:41 AM ET Fri, 22 Feb 2019

Tom McClellan, The McCellan Market Report editor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why he's bullish on the market until 2024, when he sees a bear market coming.

 

https://www.cnbc.com...until-2021.html

 

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#10 robo

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 11:23 PM

All good points Brother. Now we wait for the market to care about them. The trend remains up.......  Waiting to see a move below the 9 EMA and maybe the 20 DMA as we move into the next DCL....  LOL.... Lots of gaps to fill....  We shall see how it plays out!  Maybe the BOTS ( buy programs) will save the day again.....

 

Good trading!

 

https://stockcharts....m=1&a=648358915


Edited by robo, 25 February 2019 - 11:28 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore