1010 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Good article that explains the repurchasing (repo) crunch that happened last week, "Here are some of the potential explanations I’ve seen…

• Corporations were seeking dollars for quarterly tax payments. 
• The attack on Saudi Aramco spurred demand as oil spiked and investors feared a Middle East conflict.
• Banks and investors who bought $78 billion of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds issued last week had to settle up. 

It could be any or all of these things. 

But it could also be something worse.

It could be that the U.S. government is soaking up liquidity to cover its enormous debt burden.

The U.S. government’s budget gap has widened 27% as compared with the first 10 months of fiscal 2018 and spending has risen 8% while receipts have grown by just 3%. The federal fiscal year runs October through September, with the Trump administration recently forecasting a $1 trillion full-year shortfall.

So, last month, the Treasury laid out plans to borrow $814 billion.

That money is needed first to cover the government’s trillion-dollar fiscal deficit, and second to rebuild the Treasury’s cash balance, which was used to pay the government’s bills when the debt ceiling was hit in May. 

Basically, this means the U.S. Treasury is cannibalizing the dollar by borrowing all of the money it prints. 

If that’s the problem, then this liquidity crunch isn’t going away any time soon. 

We’re going to be carrying trillion-dollar deficits for years going forward. And it looks like the Fed is going to be the one picking up the slack. 

For as long as it can anyway. 

That should definitely scare you, but it might also delight gold bugs, because that’s the asset that really stands to benefit here."       https://www.outsider...utm_referrer=64

Edited by Russ, 22 September 2019 - 09:14 AM.

[ryanoo]

Good article that explains the repurchasing (repo) crunch that happened last week, "Here are some of the potential explanations I’ve seen…

• Corporations were seeking dollars for quarterly tax payments. 
• The attack on Saudi Aramco spurred demand as oil spiked and investors feared a Middle East conflict.
• Banks and investors who bought $78 billion of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds issued last week had to settle up. 

It could be any or all of these things. 

But it could also be something worse.

It could be that the U.S. government is soaking up liquidity to cover its enormous debt burden.

The U.S. government’s budget gap has widened 27% as compared with the first 10 months of fiscal 2018 and spending has risen 8% while receipts have grown by just 3%. The federal fiscal year runs October through September, with the Trump administration recently forecasting a $1 trillion full-year shortfall.

So, last month, the Treasury laid out plans to borrow $814 billion.

That money is needed first to cover the government’s trillion-dollar fiscal deficit, and second to rebuild the Treasury’s cash balance, which was used to pay the government’s bills when the debt ceiling was hit in May. 

Basically, this means the U.S. Treasury is cannibalizing the dollar by borrowing all of the money it prints. 

If that’s the problem, then this liquidity crunch isn’t going away any time soon. 

We’re going to be carrying trillion-dollar deficits for years going forward. And it looks like the Fed is going to be the one picking up the slack. 

For as long as it can anyway. 

That should definitely scare you, but it might also delight gold bugs, because that’s the asset that really stands to benefit here."       https://www.outsider...utm_referrer=64

Somewhere I also saw Saudis selling UST?  But they are all temporary events except for the US Gov being chronically short with USD, and it can only get worse if economy turns south -- borrow and spend, and the fiscal conservatism is dead (it comes alive only when the Dems are in the WH - by the Reps to use against Dems when in fact they are far worse).  The issue doesn't feel temporary, something big will happen soon.

 

 

 

a 3.5 standard deviation move in Bonds, an 8.5 standard deviation move from Momentum to Value rotation… the largest one-day surge in Oil Prices in history and then Funding Spreads exploded HIGHER than Sept 2008 – and ALL in the span of Two Weeks

 https://i0.wp.com/mo...ng?w=1680&ssl=1

 

This curve certainly looks parabolic (getting out of control?)

https://i1.wp.com/mo...ng?w=1428&ssl=1

It's coming.  How gold and miners will behave in this market turmoil is the question, but it should be great eventually as from later in 2008.

[gannman]

https://www.zerohedg...es-through-roof

 

here is an interesting article from zero hedge

[johngeorge]

Got silver https://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

 

 

[AChartist]

so it appears to be following the parabolic cycles and shorter length daily calculations will right translate through a 26 week low,

 

the intermediate 72 and 85 weeks low cycles will probably come in late on the other side of the parabolic high.

 

figure selling some in 10-12 weeks.

 

Im pretty sure the force majeure, DOJ jailing JPM's riggers is all part of dismantling the failed discredited foreign federal reserve.

 

In fact JPM may not be able to keep the 800B silver it stole, might get returned to the treasury.

 

Gold destroys the Fed. Q

Edited by AChartist, 23 September 2019 - 03:58 AM.

[opinionated]

I know I sound like a nut but unless we get bad news this is a false  breakout I believe....  Lay around test back down to 1511 this week. Bulls better hope that holds cause 1492 next then 1460...   But If we go down my guess is 1511 holds it. I must admit I sold my Silver Longs, and my Barrick long to early.  BUT had I been in I would be bailing out the window right here a happy camper.

 

Best

[senorBS]

I know I sound like a nut but unless we get bad news this is a false  breakout I believe....  Lay around test back down to 1511 this week. Bulls better hope that holds cause 1492 next then 1460...   But If we go down my guess is 1511 holds it. I must admit I sold my Silver Longs, and my Barrick long to early.  BUT had I been in I would be bailing out the window right here a happy camper.

 

Best

Anything of course is possible, but sure are a LOT of doubters here and Friday saw 5-day DSI at 49% - nice wall of worry IMO. I am long and strong and all my accts broke out to new all time highs today. not complacent but the charts and wave counts for now which odds currently suggest are lookin higher, perhaps much higher, we see. Some times the hardest think to do is believe in and actually ride a gold bull

 

Senor

[gannman]

well i am a bull for sure everything i look at looks good time segmented volume looks good

 

my target for slv is 24 to 24.50 and for gld i like about 1800 

 

 

i am interpreting this as a iii of 3 but even if it is just finishing up wave i of 3

 

there is absolutely no reason to sell whatever time it takes it takes but those 

 

targets are good targets imo 

[gannman]

and i am leaning towards it being a iii of 3 because of the extreme shallowness of the pullbacks

 

hardly anything was given back whatever the count is the count is bullish 

[tradesurfer]

It makes Zero sense to me that silver should stop here for an extended time

It should get to at least the 2016 high given how much further ahead gold is at this point

Plus look at cde leading the pack on massive volume

We are in the epicenter of mass bullish seasonals now

I am surprised that Jordan Roy byrne(thedailygold.com) is calling for a 9 to 12 month correction before metals can take out the 2016 highs

If you look at the long term quarterly gold chart you can see that good had based for 6 years or 24 quarterly bars

Now we have advanced only 2 to 3 bars

There is plenty of cause for an extended run

Edited by tradesurfer, 23 September 2019 - 08:05 PM.