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SPX 2925 next target -- vulnerable market faces seasonally bearish August


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 01 August 2019 - 03:19 PM

I thought the TRADE ISSUE was more important as I posted yesterday after the close:

Posted Yesterday, 06:02 PM

It is more about the Trade Talks collapsing rather than the FED miserly 25bps and relatively hawkish FED talk.

 

I do not see a steep decline but lots of back & filling with a general IT down trend during the next few weeks. 

 

Now, it seems as if SPX can test that 50ma at 2925 but it can go much lower as the market appears vulnerable in a seasonally weak August. 

 

Bearish candle today; this and yesterday's define the ST range TOP & BOTTOM

 

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#2 redfoliage2

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Posted 01 August 2019 - 03:47 PM

Today we got the confirmation the IT top was just in.......

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 August 2019 - 03:51 PM.


#3 redfoliage2

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Posted 01 August 2019 - 06:50 PM

It looks that people in control went selling/shorting into the initial bounce up this morning.  Now better to find where will be the possible support.   My system pointing to IT support around SPX 2500.   Shorter term support around 2600, 2900 .....................


Edited by redfoliage2, 01 August 2019 - 06:57 PM.


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:01 PM

almost a full-blown trade war

 

  1. New tariffs will by no means bring closer a deal that the US wants, it will only make it further away. I think the Chinese will no longer give priority to controlling trade war scale, they will focus on the national strategy under a prolonged trade war.

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    Hu Xijin 胡锡进 Retweeted Global Times

    China-US trade war has spurred agricultural cooperation between China and Russia and promoted further modernization of Russian agricultural sector. Trade war has created strong competitors for American farmers. Global agricultural export pattern may undergo permanent changes.



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:04 PM

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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X marks the top

EA6m64GUEAIxSCD.png
2:49 PM - 1 Aug 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:06 PM

I think the KELTNER CHANNEL is underused and underrated  while the Bollinger Bands are highly overated! 

 

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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Do or die time tomorrow. Keltner Channel mid line.

EA6mLC8UwAA7mY4.png
2:46 PM - 1 Aug 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:08 PM

As I posted before, I do not think this will be a short & sharp decline but a ragged, back & fill, and slow drop for 2 to 3 weeks

 

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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2725 SPX next?? Roof - head and shoulder top???

EA6gyN_X4AIfJFJ.png
2:22 PM - 1 Aug 2019
 
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#8 dTraderB

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Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:11 PM

Mark Hulbert thinks this is the reason for stocks falling:

 

 

Opinion: Here’s the real reason U.S. stocks are losing ground right now

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut this week is not the real reason why U.S. stocks are falling. The real culprit is the exuberant mood that has captured Wall Street in recent weeks, which in turn made the stock market vulnerable to a big drop. The Fed’s decision was little more than the straw breaking the camel’s back.

To appreciate just how exuberant that mood has become, consider the average recommended equity exposure among several dozen short-term stock market timers I monitor. (This average is what’s reported in the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) In early July, this average reached its highest level since I began compiling the index two decades ago — 84.2%. And though the HSNSI has pulled back somewhat from that record-high level, it currently is still higher than 87% of daily readings since 2000.

MW-HO658_hulber_20190801161302_NS.jpg?uu

 

https://www.marketwa...w_theo_homepage



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:13 PM

He agrees with me:

 

"Meantime, for the next couple of weeks, at least, the sentiment winds will blow in the direction of lower stock prices."
Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. 



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 02 August 2019 - 09:09 AM

quick word:

We may be near a "FED pushing on a string" situation if the economic & earnings situation, and if global political & economic matters, take a sudden turn to the worse to a level that cannot be quickly and easily fixed with FED cuts and more QE

 

That is the quintessential "FED pushing on a string" example.

 

No, not there as yet, but it could quickly get near to that and when on the slippery part of the slope it does 

fall rather rapidly.

 

 

Looking for a bounce from around SPX 3020/3030 region

 

EDIT: yeah, right! type -- should be 2920/2930


Edited by dTraderB, 02 August 2019 - 09:11 AM.