Jump to content



Photo

The C word - market acting very weak, could plunge


  • Please log in to reply
52 replies to this topic

#41 alexnewbee

alexnewbee

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,301 posts

Posted 05 August 2019 - 12:10 PM

It's crash, nor bounce allowed ))


"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#42 robo

robo

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 987 posts

Posted 05 August 2019 - 12:57 PM

It's crash, nor bounce allowed ))

LOL.....  There was plenty of warning signs that Volatility was about to increase.....

 

Gaps And Warnings And Volatility, Oh My  
 
  • headshot_jason_thumbnail_hd.jpg
Jason Goepfert  
  •   
     Published: 2019-08-05 at 09:59:16 CDT

NOTE: This is an excerpt from Monday's premium note.

Splat

Traders get to start the new week staring at large losses in the futures. That follows a week that was pretty much straight down, with the S&P 500 losing ground for the past 5 sessions.

We haven't faced this kind of opening pessimism since 2016. The other times it triggered, there was some buying interest on the day of the large gap (i.e. today), but most didn't hold longer-term.

1565016849555.jpg
It's also Monday, and traders have a tendency to overreact to weekend news events. If we look for a large gap down on a Monday following multiple down days, it's not quite so negative. We can see from the charts above that many of these triggered during the bear markets in 2001-02 and 2007-08. If we only look at large gaps down that triggered within a week of a 52-week high, traders' behavior turned more optimistic.

Warnings

The biggest warning sign among the indicators we follow continues to be the "split" market. We looked at this various ways a couple of weeks ago, and it was ringing the alarm bells.

If we ignore the silly names and focus on what these warnings are saying, then it's telling us that while stocks were rising over the past few weeks, too many stocks were diverging strongly from the trend, on both the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges. It has paid to heed these warnings.

1565016894300.jpg
These signals have failed at times in the past, like in 2017. But longer-term, they have been helpful. If we look for little clusters, at least 2 Hindenburg Omens in the past 3 sessions, future returns in the S&P were bleak. Only 9 out of 46 signals (when the 3-day moving average crossed above 0.66) resulted in a higher index a month later. Ouch.

 

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

https://www.sentimen...latility-oh-my/


Edited by robo, 05 August 2019 - 12:58 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#43 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,487 posts

Posted 05 August 2019 - 01:02 PM

Closed another 4 QQQ puts



#44 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,487 posts

Posted 05 August 2019 - 01:07 PM

I do not know what to do with my half position TLT short that has lost almost 6%

 

Maybe I will add another 1/2 short at around these levels, 138 to 139 

 

or just leave it there, let it suffer a bit more 

 

 



#45 robo

robo

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 987 posts

Posted 05 August 2019 - 01:11 PM

Closed another 4 QQQ puts

Nice trades Brother! 

 

Getting ready to go flat.....  Selling TZA, VXX, and taking another try with XES. (stopped out on my last trade)  Long at $7.90 for a trade....  Using Vanguard funds... XES is a free trade.....


Edited by robo, 05 August 2019 - 01:11 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#46 robo

robo

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 987 posts

Posted 05 August 2019 - 01:18 PM

I do not know what to do with my half position TLT short that has lost almost 6%

 

Maybe I will add another 1/2 short at around these levels, 138 to 139 

 

or just leave it there, let it suffer a bit more 

 

 

I just did that on my last XES trade... (loser)  They cant all be winners.......  I was long from Friday..... These gaps up or down at the open catch most of us sometimes holding the wrong ST position.  NO early trading at Vanguard....


Edited by robo, 05 August 2019 - 01:21 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#47 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,487 posts

Posted 05 August 2019 - 01:48 PM

Cavalry could come riding in as DOW near 900 points down

 

Be alert, shorts & longs!



#48 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,487 posts

Posted 05 August 2019 - 01:48 PM

 

I do not know what to do with my half position TLT short that has lost almost 6%

 

Maybe I will add another 1/2 short at around these levels, 138 to 139 

 

or just leave it there, let it suffer a bit more 

 

 

I just did that on my last XES trade... (loser)  They cant all be winners.......  I was long from Friday..... These gaps up or down at the open catch most of us sometimes holding the wrong ST position.  NO early trading at Vanguard....

 

I was not paying too much attention to that trade. Will hold for a few days



#49 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,487 posts

Posted 05 August 2019 - 01:50 PM

Holding only 5 QQQ puts 



#50 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,487 posts

Posted 05 August 2019 - 01:51 PM

I am very hesitant to trade short NQ now! 

 

Let us see if this bounce will take it up and release some of the heavy selling pressure