Anybody Looking At the Long Bond?!?!?
Posted 07 August 2019 - 03:40 PM
Posted 07 August 2019 - 03:46 PM
The benefits not for consumers as the 30 year mortgage still 3.75 to 4%. This is why Fed cutting rates not working effectively.........
3.46% here at 3rd Fed.
Posted 07 August 2019 - 03:49 PM
I've had a little TLT for a few weeks, and I sold it yesterday. It may go a little higher, but over the last 10 years, I have been very wrong about bonds. They went lower and stayed there longer than I ever imagined. I doubt that I am alone. But now, I made a nice quick profit, but (note to self) remember fool, you are frequently wrong about bonds, so take your profit and get out of Dodge! I also made a little on VXX and got out of it. Volatility is volatile! I picked up a little AMZN in the carnage last Friday, in the black now. For some reason, I'm a little more interested in individual stocks right now, rather than SPY.
Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com
My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY. During the Corona virus bear market I use more sector funds to avoid the bad spots in the SPY such as energy, hotels, and the airlines.
Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:16 PM
I do believe they will cut... .50 because the markets are going in the sh*tter The second half of Aug and into Sept. THAT cut will be the lifeline. I have been long from 2790 ES and long LULU from about ES 2845... Just added Long DRI on this mornings Drop. Looking for 2950 MIN. Possibly more..... But I really think the real Blood bath starts after 8-14-8-16
This will probably end this Thread (I Seem to have that effect.)
I'm an O'l Man... An O'l trader and could really give two craps who likes me or my opinion.
Posted 08 August 2019 - 08:25 AM
I think what is wrong with this bull market this time is that the boomer generation is steadily taking money out of stocks into bonds and then out of the market as they retire. They are only half way done, will be complete in 2032. That's why you won't see a 10x move like in 82-2000, the weight of redemptions is holding the market back, it's now flat for nearly 2 years. The more people heading for the exits is just a simple fact of supply and demand, the market will not do well and may even have several more cyclical bear markets. The preceding generation retired well with the 10x move from 82-2000. People are moving to gold and Bitcoin to make up for the lack of gains in the market. Buy and hold is not working anymore. SPX 2100 will not surprise me here. We may hit 5000 in 12 years but should be 10,000+.
Edited by CLK, 08 August 2019 - 08:25 AM.