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‘bump in the road on the way down to Lehman-like drop'


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#21 dTraderB

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Posted 09 August 2019 - 09:31 AM

Yes and they will cut rates in the middle of the day right after lunch.  Thats all the GDAM fed cares about is the stupid stock market !!

 

 

I do not think they will come in with SPX above the 2850 level

 

I don't trust them!



#22 12SPX

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Posted 09 August 2019 - 09:46 AM

Hmmmm I think thats stretching a bit.  I think there are super low odds we'll see 2750 today and even then don't think the Fed would cut out of the blue!



#23 tradesurfer

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Posted 09 August 2019 - 10:10 AM

desperate times lead to desperate measures...

 

the stock market right now is a big cry baby trying to get the ice cream for the 3rd time in the same day.... the fed will give them that ice cream...

 

all the stock market has to do is do a vertical fast plunge that makes it look like the world is ending  (also known as mini crash)



#24 dTraderB

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Posted 09 August 2019 - 10:53 AM

Hmmmm I think thats stretching a bit.  I think there are super low odds we'll see 2750 today and even then don't think the Fed would cut out of the blue!

 

 

not 2750 today 

but as an IT target for FED intervention before the SEP meeting

 

of course, 2750 can be hit today but that is a 99.9999% improbability



#25 dTraderB

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Posted 09 August 2019 - 10:57 AM

one of the main reasons for my focus on daytrading since 2009 is that the markets move so quickly that you can quickly be stopped out of trades on an IT basis.

 

Now, with daytrading, I trade the trend and forget about holding positions for more than a few minutes, except IT & LT holdings and Options. ]

 

 

That ES 2900 is strong support



#26 12SPX

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Posted 09 August 2019 - 11:28 AM

 

Hmmmm I think thats stretching a bit.  I think there are super low odds we'll see 2750 today and even then don't think the Fed would cut out of the blue!

 

 

not 2750 today 

but as an IT target for FED intervention before the SEP meeting

 

of course, 2750 can be hit today but that is a 99.9999% improbability

 

Well yes true lol but unlikely being a feel good friday!  I also agree they're going to defend 2900 pretty good I think!



#27 da_cheif

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Posted 09 August 2019 - 12:45 PM

Global macro trader who nailed the 2008 crisis says next 3 months mark ‘edge of the cliff’ for markets—and ‘we’re there right now’

Raoul Pal tells MarketWatch that we are at ‘most fragile point in global financial markets since the eurozone crisis in 2012’

Financial markets are at a crucial inflection point and Wall Street investors should look no further than the U.S. dollar for the clearest sign of the increasing stress on the system that could ignite a financial crisis a la 2008, says Raoul Pal.

The former GLG global macro hedge-fund co-manager, who was among the few investors that predicted and profited amid the 2008-09 mortgage meltdown, told MarketWatch in a Wednesday interview that the current set up has led him to a grim forecast for the economy and markets.

“The conclusion has to be that this is the most fragile point in global financial markets since the eurozone crisis in 2012, and potentially the start of the Great Recession in 2008,” he said.

Pal says the U.S. dollar’s relative strength, measured on a trade-weighted basis, is rippling around the world, particularly as global central banks adopt easy-money policies that appear to be more accommodative than even the U.S. Federal Reserve, driving local currencies lower against the buck.

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The dollar is hovering around its highest level since 2002 as of July 31, according to the most recent data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve via Fred on the greenback’s trade-weighted strength against other major global currencies (see chart attached).

A Wednesday note by currency strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said currencies, or foreign exchange, have become a prominent theme for all assets now. “FX has moved from the sideline to the center stage with escalating trade tension,” said BAML analysts including David Woo, Claude Piron and Adarsh Sinha.

 
 

On Wednesday, government debt yields plumbed new depths after central banks in Thailand, India and New Zealand cut policy interest rates more than investors expected. Concerns also mounted after Germany reported lower-than-expected industrial production for June, pushing the country’s 10-year sovereign debt, known as bunds TMBMKDE-10Y, +4.71%, to record lows at around minus 0.58%.

The surprise move by the central banks helped to drive the New Zealand dollarNZDUSD, -0.1234%, known as the kiwi, down 2% against the U.S. currency at its lows, and briefly put the Australian dollar AUDUSD, -0.2646% under severe pressure in early Wednesday action in New York.

Pal, a former Goldman Sachs trader, who also co-founded Real Vision TV, says this backdrop of weakness in global currencies has been a key driver for the downbeat mood in markets.

The $5.1 trillion currency market is the biggest of all financial markets and the majority of trade is conducted in bucks, so the “movement of the U.S. dollar is the most important financial input to the global economy,” Pal told MarketWatch.

A focus on currencies and its impact on global economies and markets intensified earlier this week after the China’s onshore yuan USDCNY, +0.0000%  sank to a record low of 7.1 per dollar, breaching a so-called line in the sand for the monetary unit of the world’s second-largest economy and indicating that Beijing may be prepared to unleash a variety of tactics to combat the U.S. in a yearlong tariff dispute.

Read: Why a falling Chinese yuan crushed the stock market and intensified the trade war

 

Raoul Pal lives in the caymans......a millionaire what doesnt pay US taxes



#28 redfoliage2

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Posted 09 August 2019 - 12:49 PM

one of the main reasons for my focus on daytrading since 2009 is that the markets move so quickly that you can quickly be stopped out of trades on an IT basis.
 
Now, with daytrading, I trade the trend and forget about holding positions for more than a few minutes, except IT & LT holdings and Options. ]
 
 
That ES 2900 is strong support



#29 redfoliage2

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Posted 09 August 2019 - 12:58 PM

Next week most of put holders will be annihilated in the first three days.  Today is a good chance to take the profit.   Believe or not..................



#30 dTraderB

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Posted 09 August 2019 - 01:40 PM

Next week most of put holders will be annihilated in the first three days.  Today is a good chance to take the profit.   Believe or not..................

 

I think the PUT holders were annihilated in the rally this week so next week's OPEX will be one of the rare exceptions where the market goes down.