Jump to content



Photo

Potential Lehman style selloff Part II


  • Please log in to reply
191 replies to this topic

#1 punter

punter

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,881 posts

Posted 12 August 2019 - 11:28 PM

looking for a bounce to reload shorts in global markets. last night i tot reshort today. likely to be next week.

 

aug likely to see a break below 200 day for US indices. it will be become clearer for me in sep for longer term projection.

 

Imagine global GDP cut in half. One under US world order (or US hegemony if you are not anglo saxon) and the rest under non-aligned movement. markets have not priced in this scenario. no rate cut or fiscal stimulus will save current price levels.


Keep Calm and be Long

My opinion on markets, or anything, is a health hazard. Follow or fade at your own risk!


#2 punter

punter

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,881 posts

Posted 13 August 2019 - 02:38 AM

took a small short on dax (11367); see how it goes

 

took small short sp (2876); have to close v fast

 

all using cfd to trade, not futures


Edited by punter, 13 August 2019 - 02:41 AM.

Keep Calm and be Long

My opinion on markets, or anything, is a health hazard. Follow or fade at your own risk!


#3 punter

punter

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,881 posts

Posted 13 August 2019 - 03:05 AM

took a small short on dax (11367); see how it goes

 

took small short sp (2876); have to close v fast

 

all using cfd to trade, not futures

closed shorts. beer money.

 

long gold (1525). small position. closed it for beer money. too chicken to stay. 


Edited by punter, 13 August 2019 - 03:09 AM.

Keep Calm and be Long

My opinion on markets, or anything, is a health hazard. Follow or fade at your own risk!


#4 Bearingly

Bearingly

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 46 posts

Posted 13 August 2019 - 03:10 AM

Punter, I don't see any reason to wait to get short.  Something very bad this way comes.

 

Two weeks before the horrible fires in northern CA I had a nightmare of driving on foothill roads and seeing the engulfing flames approaching with monstrous vigor.

 

One week before the recent large earthquakes near Fontana CA and the San Gabriel mountains while my wife and I were visiting family I said to her while driving that this is a perfect place for an earthquake.

 

I now feel that some type of financial panic may shortly ensue.

 

I have to allude to two recent negative financial experiences.  I've used Coinbase with no negative events until recently.  Imagine transferring funds ACH from your bank to Coinbase and then magically seeing daily unauthorized ACH transfers of the exact same amount.  I had my bank reverse the unauthorized transfers.  Coinbase froze my account and did one of their infamous "investigations" for a week where they never actually disclose what really happened.  In fact they never actually disclose anything.  I believe that their correspondent bank, Cross River Bank in NJ accidentally coded my account for recurrent transfers, but upon speaking with their ACH department of course vehemently denying this in their rude New York Italian-American demeanor (sorry, I'm from there and know what it's like, ha, ha.).

 

So once Coinbase sought fit to release my funds I could not transfer to my bank, only Paypal.  And the fun begins again.  Transfer denied.  Transfer denied over and over.  And those knowledgeable, judgmental Paypal Call Center supervisors know nothing and each and every one that one talks to tells a different story.  You tried to take out too much money at once.  Security shut down your account.  Your bank denied reception of your funds.  All stupid or mean people that find joy in spreading disinformation and instilling panic.  I won't go into further details of their inaccuracies and sophomoric analysis, but truth be told, the real reason was a breakdown in their software transmittal network, without IT or upper management informing the call centers, leaving those bored and restless call center fiefdoms free to spread fear.  Oh, but they credited my account $10 in the end as a "courtesy".  LMFAO

 

Poloniex, which once dominated cryptocurrency trading in the "good ole days" now being responsible for just above 1% of the trading volume absconded with a small fortune of my funds by disallowing all but the smallest withdrawals while Bitcoin was crashing, due to liquidity concerns.  They had to be bailed out once through usury.  Subsequently being bought out by a company called Circle something (partly owned by the GS boyz).  Just try to find an attorney willing to take on crytpocurrency fraud.  The attorneys talk like big shots in the media about getting their clients even but it ain't so.  And calling up the Attorney General's Office results in, well, what are you talkin aboutswoon.gif

 

To finally end this diatribe, of which I almost never post anything here or anywhere I say this:  short the markets,  buy gold, Bitcoin is good but use GBTC or the futures if you can afford to, NOT THE CRYPTO EXCHANGES EVER, and, for God's Sake , stay away from real estate.

 

 



#5 Bearingly

Bearingly

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 46 posts

Posted 13 August 2019 - 03:15 AM

As an addendum, upper management has been resigning from Coinbase and Circle in droves this year.



#6 punter

punter

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,881 posts

Posted 13 August 2019 - 03:21 AM

 

took a small short on dax (11367); see how it goes

 

took small short sp (2876); have to close v fast

 

all using cfd to trade, not futures

closed shorts. beer money.

 

long gold (1525). small position. closed it for beer money. too chicken to stay. 

 

 

long sp 2877. small position, counter trend.


Keep Calm and be Long

My opinion on markets, or anything, is a health hazard. Follow or fade at your own risk!


#7 punter

punter

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,881 posts

Posted 13 August 2019 - 03:28 AM

Punter, I don't see any reason to wait to get short.  Something very bad this way comes.

 

Two weeks before the horrible fires in northern CA I had a nightmare of driving on foothill roads and seeing the engulfing flames approaching with monstrous vigor.

 

One week before the recent large earthquakes near Fontana CA and the San Gabriel mountains while my wife and I were visiting family I said to her while driving that this is a perfect place for an earthquake.

 

I now feel that some type of financial panic may shortly ensue.

 

I have to allude to two recent negative financial experiences.  I've used Coinbase with no negative events until recently.  Imagine transferring funds ACH from your bank to Coinbase and then magically seeing daily unauthorized ACH transfers of the exact same amount.  I had my bank reverse the unauthorized transfers.  Coinbase froze my account and did one of their infamous "investigations" for a week where they never actually disclose what really happened.  In fact they never actually disclose anything.  I believe that their correspondent bank, Cross River Bank in NJ accidentally coded my account for recurrent transfers, but upon speaking with their ACH department of course vehemently denying this in their rude New York Italian-American demeanor (sorry, I'm from there and know what it's like, ha, ha.).

 

So once Coinbase sought fit to release my funds I could not transfer to my bank, only Paypal.  And the fun begins again.  Transfer denied.  Transfer denied over and over.  And those knowledgeable, judgmental Paypal Call Center supervisors know nothing and each and every one that one talks to tells a different story.  You tried to take out too much money at once.  Security shut down your account.  Your bank denied reception of your funds.  All stupid or mean people that find joy in spreading disinformation and instilling panic.  I won't go into further details of their inaccuracies and sophomoric analysis, but truth be told, the real reason was a breakdown in their software transmittal network, without IT or upper management informing the call centers, leaving those bored and restless call center fiefdoms free to spread fear.  Oh, but they credited my account $10 in the end as a "courtesy".  LMFAO

 

Poloniex, which once dominated cryptocurrency trading in the "good ole days" now being responsible for just above 1% of the trading volume absconded with a small fortune of my funds by disallowing all but the smallest withdrawals while Bitcoin was crashing, due to liquidity concerns.  They had to be bailed out once through usury.  Subsequently being bought out by a company called Circle something (partly owned by the GS boyz).  Just try to find an attorney willing to take on crytpocurrency fraud.  The attorneys talk like big shots in the media about getting their clients even but it ain't so.  And calling up the Attorney General's Office results in, well, what are you talkin aboutswoon.gif

 

To finally end this diatribe, of which I almost never post anything here or anywhere I say this:  short the markets,  buy gold, Bitcoin is good but use GBTC or the futures if you can afford to, NOT THE CRYPTO EXCHANGES EVER, and, for God's Sake , stay away from real estate.

 

 

 

Oh dear, sorry to hear about your bad experience. For me, bulk of my trading is through regulated stock brokers in Asia. For global markets, I used Interactive Brokers which provide CFD option. I don't understand Crypto so I stay away. The only business case behind it that I know is money laundering. I know many shady people in Asia using Crypto to 'clean' their money. Some of the biggest operations are in the Philippines and Cambodia. I try to stay away.

 

As for short, I don't see a straight line until late aug and mid to late oct. Still watching. Will report back unless the market catch me first.


Keep Calm and be Long

My opinion on markets, or anything, is a health hazard. Follow or fade at your own risk!


#8 opinionated

opinionated

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,897 posts

Posted 13 August 2019 - 03:32 AM

Looking for a bounce today, retest the 15th then rally hard into the 20th then "The Big One" Down



#9 punter

punter

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,881 posts

Posted 13 August 2019 - 03:42 AM

Looking for a bounce today, retest the 15th then rally hard into the 20th then "The Big One" Down

 

Quite similar in view. 'color revolution' now screening in HK. Chinese intelligence could have nipped it in the bud by they didnt.

 

2 rumour about this. 1 they are testing advanced AI to screen rioters and CIA/MI6 operatives. 2 they are using the riots to deflect worsening economic headlines.

 

But I expect a bounce in sep leading to the 70th anniversary of the chinese communist party founding.


Keep Calm and be Long

My opinion on markets, or anything, is a health hazard. Follow or fade at your own risk!


#10 punter

punter

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,881 posts

Posted 13 August 2019 - 04:39 AM

looking for a bounce to reload shorts in global markets. last night i tot reshort today. likely to be next week.

 

aug likely to see a break below 200 day for US indices. it will be become clearer for me in sep for longer term projection.

 

Imagine global GDP cut in half. One under US world order (or US hegemony if you are not anglo saxon) and the rest under non-aligned movement. markets have not priced in this scenario. no rate cut or fiscal stimulus will save current price levels.

 

watch out for US tariffs on remaining chinese goods to be raised to 25%. Further embargo on Huawei. Chinese respond with Fedex, Boeing and Flextronics on entity list. Chinese embargo on rare earths. It will be a bloody black Friday.

 

Next year, watch out for further escalation in HK riots with armed revolt. Arms supplied by CIA. Armed suppression leading to removal of HK as USD clearing center. Major currency volatility. Housing price collapsed in HK and SG.

 

Hot armed conflict near TW, following US troop deployment.

 

These are Tom Clancy scenarios. Be very careful.


Keep Calm and be Long

My opinion on markets, or anything, is a health hazard. Follow or fade at your own risk!